Predicted winter surface temperature anomalies for the United States Dec-Jan-Feb 2016/17 in degrees Fahrenheit.
The model is forecasting colder than normal temperatures for much of the Eastern United States, with warmer than normal temperatures for the Western United States.
The model uses October Siberian snow cover, sea level pressure anomalies, predicted El Niño/Southern Oscillation anomalies, and observed September Arctic sea ice anomalies. October Siberian snow cover has so far this month advanced at an above normal rate. This is an indication of an increased probability of a weakened polar vortex or a sudden stratospheric warming, and a predominantly negative Arctic Oscillation during the winter and cold temperatures - especially east of the Mississippi.
This is a preliminary forecast and not the official winter forecast as the model requires full monthly values for snow cover and sea level pressure anomalies. The forecast will be updated next month.
Current forecast produced on October 19, 2016.
Credit: Judah Cohen, AER, Inc.
Est-ce que cette ''possible'' anomalie de température est annonciatrice de fortes tempêtes remontant négativement sur le Sud du Québec ???
J'ai bien hâte de voir la mise à jour de l'AER et je crois que cela est une bonne nouvelle pour un hiver neigeux au Québec.