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Vendredi le 26 Janvier


Mizar

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Je regarde les modeles et pour le 26 Janvier , une semaine jours pour jours et c'est drole de voir un meme systeme que cette mega-tempete du 19 comment les ressemblances sont similaire...sauf que la ,la tendense est qu'elle resterai sur la cote... c'est loin mais ca ressemble pas mal a ca...

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Ouais on dirait bien qu'il y a qqchose d'intéressant jeudi et vendredi prochain...

Le NB devrait encore déguster (un peu moins), mais le reste du Quebec pourrait aussi s'attendre à des accumulations substantielles...

Une trajectoire un peu plus vers l'ouest serait la bienvenue (pas pour le NB je sais bien... chacun son tour ! :P )

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Je surveille tout autant que vous cette tempete, et je dois dire que tout le monde sera touché, pas juste les secteurs de l'Est et du Nouveau-Brunswick. Le Québec risque d'y goutter aussi. Bien que la trajectoire reste a definir ici.. si elle se concretise, on parlerait d'un vrai northeaster

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ACW en parle aussi :

 

Another winter storm will kick out of the Southwest early next week, bringing with it the potential for some snow and ice once again in Texas, From here, this storm will hug the Gulf Coast before turning northeastwards Wednesday and Thursday. Any winter storm following such a path raises interest along the Atlantic Seaboard. So, can this storm threaten the Northeast with significant snowfall? It would seem that the key lies with another storm: a colder, northern counterpart dipping southeast from central Canada. An early mingling of forces amongst the two storms would bear with it a good potential to spin up a nor'easter along the middle and north Atlantic Seaboard. At the same time, later merging of storm energy would give rise to a storm with highest impact at sea, over eastern New England and in Atlantic Canada. It is too early to make this call, but AccuWeather.com headlines will be watching this one keenly.

 

Story by AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Jim Andrews.

post-2-1169329313_thumb.jpg

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pour le moment la nouvelle angleterre va y gouter pas a peu près selon accuweather, dans le blog de henry il est possible qune formation de tempête dune catégorie 4 pour le mid-atlantique ce qui dit du 30 cm a 60 cm de neige pour eux :D la question de lheure le québec sera til touché et bien le GEM la fais passer près de lestrie et le sud de la beauce. avec possiblement du 10 cm à 15 cm de neige pour eux. par la suite le même modele la fait passer par le nouveau-brunswick et aussi par la gaspésie avec encore une fois de bonne chute de neige!!!

pour le moment montreal, trois-rivieres, québec et bas-du-fleuve bien un 5 cm de neige pour le moment et encore la de très bon vent avec ce systeme :D a suivre avec intérêt!!!!!!!!!!!

 

56r

Modifié par 56r
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Pour le moment, les modèles ont dévié un tantinet cette nouvelle dépression un peu plus à l'ouest, par rapport à hier. Ce qui signifie que les accumulations de neige seront plus significatives pour le 25 et le 26, du moins, sur le sud et le centre du Québec. Je doute qu'on aie du 30 cm pour le moment, mais un 15 cm n'est pas à négliger... si la tendance se maintient. Par exemple, le GFS ne mettait que 5 cm hier. Aujourd'hui, il donne de 5 à 10 cm. On est sur une bonne voie. :D

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j'pense que cette semaine , se seras au tour de terre-Neuve d'y gouter...pour nous autres au du moins le Quebec et le Sud-Ouest...n'entretener pas top d'espoir a moin d'un miracle mais c'est vrai tout est encore trop loin... pour en ce qui me concerne ,je suis trop proche de tout et surement je devrai avoir des surprises...

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Mouais... En tout cas, les modèles sont loins d'être rassurants... Que ce soit le GFS 12z ou le NAM, ceux-ci placent très loin, dans l'Atlantique, cette soit-disante "tempête". Vrai que les quantités de pcp sont élevées, mais trop loin. Pour cause, le courant-jet plonge assez loin au sud. :)

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tout le monde a Terre-Neuve cette Fin de semaine :huh: :( :)

 

 

An even bigger storm possible Friday?

 

Like I said before, this type of pattern that we are getting into is a very stormy one for Newfoundland and perhaps the coastal Maritimes. By Friday, I expect another storm to really get cranking to the south of Newfoundland. This second storm may end up covering a larger area than the first, so that parts of Nova Scotia and PEI may get into the heavier snow from early Friday into Friday evening. Latest computer models do track this storm over Newfoundland Friday night or early Saturday which would mean another change to rain from snow over the Avalon Peninsula while the western half of the Island of Newfoundland gets blasted with another heavy, windblown snowstorm Friday and Friday night. Here is something else that is interesting, the latest European model shows the central pressure of this storm bottoming out to 957 mb or 28.26 inches near Newfoundland early Saturday morning! If that ends up being correct, then that central pressure is similar to the central pressure of a category 3 hurricane.

 

je garde un peu espoir qu'elle me frole et me touche...

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Finalement ,plus le temps avance et + les chances que je sois touche par cette tempete majeure s'organise...le systeme a tendense a passe plus a l'ouest...interressant a suivre... :rolleyes:

 

Atlantic Storm may turn into a Blizzard!

Wednesday, January 24, 2007

One note: It was -43 celsius (-45 F) at Big Trout Lake in northwestern Ontario earlier Wednesday morning! This cold air means business.

 

 

Atlantic storm will turn into a monster Friday

 

The energy that is pushing the Arctic cold front through southwestern Ontario Wednesday evening will reach the Middle Atlantic Coast of the U.S. later Thursday afternoon. Once this happens, pressures will quickly drop well southeast of New England later Thursday evening forming a storm. That storm is going to rapidly intensify late Thursday night and early Friday morning about 400 km SSE of Halifax Nova Scotia. The warmer than normal water south of Nova Scotia will also further enhance the intensification process. Latest computer models have trended this storm more toward the west as the jet stream forms a closed circulation just to the east of New England. The counterclockwise circulation around this upper level circulation will steer the storm a little more on a westward path than what I was thinking yesterday, which will put parts of Nova Scotia, PEI and perhaps extreme eastern New Brunswick into the steady snow Friday and Friday night. The Island of Newfoundland is still going to get the direct hit from the storm from Friday afternoon through Saturday. The storm's central pressure will likely bottom out to near 960 mb (28.34 inches) just south of Newfoundland late Friday night, which by the way is very low, and will lead to a very tight pressure gradient which will lead to powerful winds (gusts to hurricane force) from the coastal regions of eastern Nova Scotia to Newfoundland. Right now, it looks like the heaviest snow and worst blizzard conditions will be on Cape Breton Island and the western half of the Island of Newfoundland. After a period of moderate to heavy, wet snow, much of the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland will likely change over to rain late Friday night. Here is a breakdown of some specific locations and what I think will happen based on the latest information. Keep in mind, a shift in the track of the storm would have a significant impact on the amount of snow for a particular location. I am sure there will be adjustments on these forecasted amounts later Thursday.

 

Yarmouth, NS: Generally light snow Friday and Friday night, but the increasing north winds will cause widespread blowing and drifting through early Saturday morning. Total snowfall 3-8 cm.

 

Halifax, NS: Snow arrives Friday morning then snow, heavy at times through a good part of Friday night. Possible blizzard conditions Friday afternoon and evening. This will be a cold storm, so the snow to liquid ratios will be higher than normal, meaning you do not need as much liquid equivalent to make a certain amount of snow. Sustained winds averaging 55-65 kph with gusts to 90-95 kph. Total snowfall 12-25 cm.

 

New Glasgow, NS: Snow arrives midday Friday and continues through much of Friday night. Blizzard conditions late Friday and Friday night with the strong winds and blowing snow. Total snowfall 15-30 cm, as there may be some snowfall enhancement from the Gulf of St. Lawrence as that cold air moves over the

 

Charlottetown, PEI: Snow arrives midday Friday and continues through early Friday night then gets lighter into Saturday morning. Blizzard conditions late Friday and Friday night with the strong winds and blowing snow. Total snowfall 15-30 cm, as there may be some snowfall enhancement from the Gulf of St. Lawrence as that cold air moves over the "warmer" water. Total snowfall 10-20 cm.

 

Moncton, NB: Snow and gusty winds Friday afternoon and early at night. Total snowfall 6-10 cm.

 

St. John, NB: Light snow and a stiff wind Friday afternoon and evening. Total snowfall 2-5 cm.

 

Sydney, NS: Snow from early Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. Snow will be heavy at times with very strong winds from Friday evening through Saturday morning. Northerly winds will average 80 kph (50 mph) with some gusts to 125-130 kph (~80 mph) Friday night and Saturday morning. It is going to be nasty! Total snowfall 20-30 cm. The higher ground of northern Cape Breton Island could see as much as 25-40 cm.

 

St. John's, NF: Snow arrives Friday evening and accumulates 6-10 cm before changing to rain sometime Friday night. Easterly winds will roar Friday evening and night, mostly sustained at 60-65 kph with some gusts to 110 kph (~70 mph).

 

Gander, NF: Snow arrives later Friday evening and continues into Saturday morning before tapering off. Blizzard conditions possible. Total snowfall 12-25 cm. Areas just to the south and west of Gander could see as much as 35-40 cm.

 

Deer Lake/Corner Brook, NF: Snow Friday afternoon, Friday

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