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Hiver Météorologique de 2015-2016


Mizar

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Elle est de retour dans la prévision à 312h (de 18Z aujourd'hui), au lieu de : 384h - 24h/j x 4j= 288h. Une différence de 24 heures environ. C'est pour le 17 décembre. On va voir si ça revient.

 

Actuellement superbe sur papier; c'est la tempête parfaite.

 

C'est très agité sur les prochains 384h, selon le GFS. Plus d'un système chaud.

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Les hivers sans hiver... Winter without a winter.  Ce matin je grattais quelque peu sur internet et c'est une belle recherche a faire pour comprendre ce qui se passe en ce-moment.

 

Surtout celle de 1930-1931-1932 .  Le jeu des comparaisons.    http://www.worldclimatereport.com/archive/previous_issues/vol7/v7n11/feature.htm

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Pendant ce temps à l'opposé de nous, un monstre qui ((((pourrait égaler)))) celui de novembre 2014 dans la mer de Bearing.  

 

Erick, "pourrait égaler"  en qualité et/ou en structure mais pas en effet je pense... Quels en serait "l'effet" cette fois

 

Je veux dire que c'était un environement presque opposé...

 

Valid Monday December 14, 2015 to Friday December 25, 2015

US Hazards Outlook

NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD

300 PM EST December 11 2015

 

Synopsis: At the start of the period, deep surface low pressure over the Upper Mississippi Valley is expected to move northeastward to southeastern Canada/Northern New England as it's associated cold front moves across the eastern part of the country by Dec 15. A 2nd area of surface low pressure over the Northern Rockies is forecast to move to the central Plains on Dec 15 and the western Great Lakes by Dec 16. Cold high pressure is forecast to build over the western U.S. behind this departing area of low pressure. An area of low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico on Dec 16 moves to the southeast U.S. Dec 17. Another area of low pressure and it's associated frontal system are forecast to approach the Pacific Northwest Dec 17-18. Deep surface low pressure is expected to be over the Bering Sea Dec 15 as another area of low pressure passes south of the Aleutians Dec 16-17. Broadly cyclonic flow is expected across most of the lower 48 states during week-2 as a ridge builds over Alaska.

 

Hazards

  • Heavy Rain across northern portions of the Northeast, Mon, Dec 14.
  • High Winds across portions of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts, Mon, Dec 14.
  • Heavy snow across portions of the northern and central high Plains, and central Rockies, Mon, Dec 14.
  • High winds across portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes, Mon, Dec 14.
  • High Winds across portions of Pacific Northwest and California, Mon, Dec 14.
  • High Significant Wave Heights for coastal portions of the Pacific Northwest, and northern California, Mon, Dec 14.
  • High Winds across portions of Alaska and the Aleutians, Mon, Dec 14.
  • High Significant Wave Heights for portions of Alaska and the Aleutians, Mon, Dec 14.
  • Heavy snow across portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley, Mon-Tue, Dec 14-15.
  • Heavy rain across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, southeast, and southern Appalachians, Wed-Thu, Dec 16-17.
  • Heavy snow across portions of the Northern Rockies and Northern Great Basin, Wed-Thu, Dec 16-17.
  • Heavy Precipitation across portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern California, Wed-Thu, Dec 16-17.
  • Much Below Normal Temperatures across portions of the Central Great Basin, Central Rockies, and Southwest, Wed-Thu, Dec 16-Dec 17.
  • High winds across coastal sections of the Pacific Northwest, Thu-Fri, Dec 17-18.
  • Flooding occurring across portions of the Southern Plains, Mon-Wed, Dec 14-16.
  • Flooding possible over a portion of the Great Lakes, Upper Mississippi Valley, and Middle Mississippi Valley, Sun-Tue, Dec 14-15=6.
  • Flooding Occurring or likely across portions of the Pacific Northwest and Northern Great Basin, Mon-Wed, Dec 14-Dec 16.
  • Severe Drought across Puerto Rico, Pacific Northwest, California, Northern Great Basin, Central Great Basin, Northern Rockies, and southwest.
  • Slight risk of much below-normal temperatures for parts of southeast mainland Alaska and the Alaska Panhandle, Sat-Mon, Dec 19-21.

Detailed Summary

 

For Monday December 14 - Friday December 18: Deep low pressure over the Upper Mississippi Valley is expected to lead to high winds over the Great Lakes, portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and coastal sections of the northeast and Mid-Atlantic, Dec 14. Heavy snowfall (liquid equivalent of 0.75 inch) is possible over portions of the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes Dec 14-15. Flooding is possible over portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley, Middle Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes, while flooding is occurring over portions of eastern Texas. As the area of low pressure moves towards northern New England, heavy rain (in excess of 1 inch in 24 hours) is anticipated over parts of the region Dec 14.

 

Low pressure over the Northern Rockies leads to heavy snowfall (liquid equivalent of close to an inch) across portions of the northern and central high Plains, and central Rockies Dec 14.

 

The tight pressure gradient between the area of low pressure over the Northern Rockies and high pressure over the eastern Pacific leads to high winds (in excess of 30 knots) and high significant waves (in excess of 18 feet) for coastal portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern California Dec 14.

 

Low pressure forecast to move from the western Gulf of Mexico to the southeast CONUS leads to heavy rain (in excess of 1 inch in 24 hours) across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, southeast, and southern Appalachians Dec 16-17.

 

Cold high pressure building over the western CONUS leads to much below normal temperatures (negative anomalies exceeding 10 degrees F) across portions of the Central Great Basin, Central Rockies, and Southwest Dec 16-17.

 

Low pressure and it's associated front moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest lead to heavy precipitation (valley rain, higher elevation snow) across portions of the Pacific Northwest and Northern California Dec 16-17. Liquid equivalent amounts exceeding 4 inches are possible over portions of these regions. Heavy snow (liquid equivalent close to an inch) is expected across portions of the Northern Rockies and Northern Great Basin Dec 16-17. The strong circulation associated with this area of low pressure leads to high winds (in excess of 30 knots) for coastal sections of the Pacific Northwest Dec 17-18. Flooding is likely, or already occurring, across a portions of western Washington and Oregon.

 

The Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea are expected to experience frequent storms during this entire Hazards Outlook period. Western and southern Alaska, in particular, are likely to bear the brunt of these migratory and energetic low pressure systems. High winds (45-60 knots) and high significant wave heights (exceeding 30 feet) are predicted for the Aleutians and parts of southwestern Alaska Dec 14.

 

For Saturday December 19 - Friday December 25: During Week 2, the predicted mid-tropospheric flow pattern features a broad cyclone centered over the central CONUS and a ridge over Alaska. According to the CPC Probabilistic Extremes Outlook tool, there is a slight risk of much below-normal temperatures in southeastern mainland Alaska and the Alaska Panhandle for December 19-21. These areas denote where minimum temperatures are expected to reach the 15th percentile, or lower, of the historical distribution.

 

The most recent U.S. drought monitor, released on December 10, indicates a very slight decrease in the coverage of severe to exceptional drought (D2 to D4), from 14.68 to 14.35.

 

Forecaster: Randy Schechter

Modifié par Pooram
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Allo Bruno !!!

 

Je m'attardais juste au centre de l;a dépression... mais merci pour les infos que tu apportes. Je l'avais bien suivit cette tempête du 7-8 novembre de l'an passé.

 

C'était tout une belle affaire. ;-)

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