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shawn_strat

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  2. Dès le 28 février

    in Discussions générales

    Posted

    FCST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM LATE MONDAY THROUGH

    TUESDAY

     

    .SYNOPSIS...

    WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS EASTERN CONUS

    WITH WITH EMBEDDED 5H VORT CROSSING CENTRAL GREAT LKS ATTM. THIS

    SYSTEM CONTS TO QUICKLY DROP SOUTH AND HAS LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK

    WITH. MEANWHILE...PLENTY OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASING ACRS

    SOUTHERN TEXAS/NORTHERN MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG 120KT

    JET....WITH ANOTHER ULVL LOW AND EMBEDDED VORTS ACRS THE DESERT SW

    ATTM. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WL TEAM UP WITH A SYSTEM IN THE

    NORTHERN STREAM ACRS CENTRAL CANADA TO PROVIDE A SIGNIFICANT STORM

    ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH MORE ON THIS

    AND ITS IMPACT IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.

     

    INTERESTING AND COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH

    THE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR A SIGNIFICANT/PROLONGED

    SNOWFALL ACRS MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. STILL MANY DIFFERENT MODEL

    SOLUTIONS...BUT ALL POINTING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT

    PRECIP EVENT. FIRST IMPORTANT PLAYER IS SFC HIGH PRES AXIS THAT WL

    EXTEND FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON

    MONDAY. THIS WL PROVIDE FA WITH PLENTY OF LLVL COLD AIR AND HELP

    SETUP LLVL BAROCLINIC ZN ON EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS.

    ALSO...HELPING TO ENHANCE LLVL COLD AIR WL BE FRESH SNOW PACK ACRS

    MID ATLANTIC AND SNE FROM YESTERDAYS SYSTEM. MEANWHILE...POTENT 5H

    VORT/ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH STRONG SUB-TROPICAL JET WL MOVE FROM

    GULF COAST STATES ON SUNDAY TO THE CAROLINE COASTLINE BY MONDAY

    AFTN. THIS WL HELP IN THE ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF

    COAST ON SUNDAY WITH MOVEMENT INTO THE SE CONUS BY MONDAY. BOTH

    NAM/GFS SHOW SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN

    7H OMEGA FIELDS AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOWS. AS THIS

    HAPPENS VIGOROUS 5H ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WL HELP TO CARVE A

    MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. THE

    STRENGTH/POSITION...AND MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE WL BE CRITICAL IN

    DETERMINING THE EXACT TRACK OF SFC LOW PRES. THE NAM SUGGEST THE

    ULVL LOW OVER CENTRAL PLAINS CAPTURING SOUTHERN ENERGY AND TAKING

    SFC LOW PRES ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS INTO THE SLV BY

    12Z TUES. THIS SOLUTION IS THE FURTHEREST WEST AND SEEMS TO BE THE

    OUTLIER ATTM. MEANWHILE...GFS/SEF/NOGAPS SHOWS INITIAL SFC LOW

    ASSOCIATED WITH CENTRAL PLAINS ULVL LOW TRACKING INTO THE GREAT

    LKS...WHILE SOUTHERN VORT AND ENERGY ENHANCES SECONDARY SFC LOW PRES

    ALONG THE SE CONUS ON MONDAY. THIS SFC LOW TRACKS ALONG THE COAST

    INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY AND WOULD SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT

    SNOW EVENT FOR OUR FA. HOWEVER...FEEL GFS IS OVERDONE WITH CLOSING

    OFF 7H/5H LOWS AND IS HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS.

    MEANWHILE...UKMET/ECMWF CONTS TO SHOW INITIAL SFC LOW TRACKING INTO

    CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT WELL SOUTH OF THE

    BENCHMARK ON TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A MUCH FLATTER RIDGE OVER THE

    WESTERN ATLANTIC. THESE TWO MODELS CONT TO FLATTEN RIDGE AS VORT

    EJECTS FROM SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND SHOWS LIMITED PHASING WITH

    NORTHERN STREAM.

     

    MY FEELING IS THAT MODELS ARE WEAKENING INITIAL SFC LOW ASSOCIATED

    WITH ULVL TROF ACRS CENTRAL PLAINS TOO QUICKLY AND THAT SECONDARY

    DEVELOPMENT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WL TAKE PLACE OVER CAPE

    HATTERAS BY MONDAY AFTN. I BELIEVE ULVL SYSTEM WL CAPTURE SFC LOW

    OVER CAPE HATTERAS AND THIS SFC LOW WL TRACK NE ALONG THE LLVL

    THERMAL GRADIENT INTO SNE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF

    STRONG 5H VORT...GOOD 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...STRONG

    85H/7H FG FORCING...AND STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES WL LEAD TO A

    INITIAL BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW LIFTING ACRS OUR FA LATE

    MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER A 6 TO 8 HOUR

    BREAK...BELIEVE FA WL ONCE AGAIN GET MORE SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO

    EARLY WEDS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH ULVL SYSTEM AND WRAP AROUND

    MOISTURE. ALSO...PARAMETERS LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR A PROLONGED

    UPSLOPE EVENT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS

    ON WEDS. FEEL CWA IS VERY LIKELY TO RECEIVE A WIDESPREAD 6 OR MORE

    INCH SNOWFALL BY WEDS...THEREFORE WL RE-ISSUE SPS FOR UPCOMING

    WINTER-STORM. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR UPSLOPE LOCATIONS LIKE JAY

    PEAK TO RECEIVE SEVERAL FEET OF SNOW BY LATE WEDS. GIVEN...PROGGED

    1000-850MB AND 850-700MB THICKNESS PATTERN SOME SLEET AND RAIN

    COULD MIX WITH THE SNOW ACRS SOUTHERN VT...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY

    MORNING.

     

     

    Peut-etre un petit-peu moins interessant qu'avant? J'espere que non. Moi aussi je deteste l'hiver, sauf quand il y a des tempetes.

  4. Brouillard et petite neige

    in Discussions générales

    Posted

    Bon matin, je suit le déroulement du futur tempete avec interet. Mais, ce matin, chez nous (dans l'est de Montréal) il y a beaucoup de brouillard avec une petite neige fine qui tombe. Je ne suis pas allé voir, mais j'imagine que ca vient du fleuve (avec le froid, -15.4)

     

    Est-ce que je suis seul? EC et MM en parlent pas.

     

    Shawn

  8. Les météogrammes

    in Discussions générales

    Posted

    Une question pour Patrick:

     

     

    Comment on peut savoir quand les météogrammes ont été émises? Je parle de ceux qui sont de prévisions pour les 8 prochains jours. Je sais que les heures en bas sont à partir du mis a jour, mais je ne sais jamais ils ont été mis a jour quand.

     

    J'espère que ma question est clair (est pas trop de fautes de français)

     

    Shawn :P

  23. Nuage en entennoir?

    in Discussions générales

    Posted

    Cet après midi vers 16h25 j'etais sur l'autoroute Metropolitaine et je crois d'avoir vu un nuage en entennoir descendre pendant 15 secondes. Je regardait vers le sud (Anjou ou St-Leonard). Il est disparu rapidement dans le nuage. Est-ce que quelqun peuvent me confirmer le phenomène?

     

    Merci,

     

    Shawn

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