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Tempête de plus en plus probable pour le week-end


beachcp31

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Finalement, la tempête du week-end semble de plus en plus probable (source CMC EC):

XTNDD RANGE FCST DISCUSSION FOR SAT FEB 22 TO MON FEB 24 2003

FINALLY A CONSENSUS WITH LONG RANGE MODELS REGARDING ERN CAN WINTER STORM THIS WEEKEND. MODELS OSCILLATION FROM A STORM 2 DAYS AGO TO NRLY NO STORM AND NOW BACK WITH A STORM IS CLOSELY RELATED TO PAC OA HAVING PROBLEM WITH WK IMPULSE BEING IN SENTITIVE ZONE AND HARD TO DETECT. TNGT RUNS ARE IN BETTER SHAPE WITH DROPSOUNDS AND TOVS OVR POTENTIAL AREAS TO ENHANCE THESE FEAS. THE INTERCONNECTION OF THIS 145W IMPULSE WITH SRN CALIF CUT OFF IS SIGNT, RESULTING WITH MORE PROGRSSIVE SYS TWD E. PHASING WITH NRN STREAM IMPULSE HAVING COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE THIS TIME, CYCLONIS A STG DEPRESSION OVER NERN NOAM AND LOOKS GOOD. WE FEEL QUITE CONFIDENT WITH TNGT MODELS SINCE WE APPROVE OA OVR PAC WTRS. THIS SYS WILL FINALLY GV SNOW TO ERN ONT AND SRN QUE RGNS ON SAT-SUN NIGHT AND SPREADING TWD LA GASPESIE-NRN NB-LA BASSE COTE NORD-NRN NLNFD ON MONDAY. CONSENSUS IS SURPRISINGLY GOOD REGARDING TRAJ AND SPEED OF THE SYS WHICH ARE CLOSELY RELATED TO ERN PAC DROPSOUNDS!

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Les prog-téphis du GFS pour Dorval montre un période de pluie verglaçante pour la nuit de samedi à dimanche mais autrement c'est de la neige.

 

Pour Halifax: SN -> FZRA -> RA -> SN

 

Reste à voir les autre modèles...

 

M.

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