Pooram

Quelques bonnes rafales ce soir, vers 22hrs ici - le front s'amène - pas la fin du monde...

Je ne sais pas si il y aura des tornades dans cette zone frontale aux US

On pourrait s'attendre à des rafales très puissantes de l'O, mardi matin tôt -

Heu... c'est quoi la question ? Ben laa, chu pas pour dire "est bonne" ! ------------

C'est déjà vieux mais beau à regarder: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/templates/loop_directory.asp?data_folder=dev/lindsey/loops/goes14&image_width=1020&image_height=720&number_of_images_to_display=50

C'est loin mais... J'ai pas pu le charger à la bonne taille, désolé...

Lien intéressant et informatif: http://nc-cera.renci.org/cgi-cera-nc/cera-nc.cgi

Vue de l'espace...

Bienvenue Daniel ! Bon moment pour commencer ici, ça va être facile à ce souvenir... Ici on sent bien la circulation d'air de Sandy et le vent NE est autour de 20 - 25 km/h - donc comme prévue 9c

Oui en fait j'ai fait un dossier depuis 2006 avec toute sorte de liens que j'ai pris ici et la dans ce forum ci et d'autres au US etc. et je les oublie... http://www.ssec.wisc.edu - en est un découvert ressassement.

Merci Allan - je dirais "va descendre au New Jersey de 53mb en 6h" -----------------------ha ha, la nuance...

Question: Se pourrait t'il qu'il y ait deux périodes de vent puisque le centre passera sur nos régions - Sud du Q., Montréal etc. ? Une première comme prévue par EC, lundi soir et en début de nuit et l'autre quand le centre dépressionnaire sera sur nous en tournant vers le NE - ?

Oui mais cé l'fun ! - Par contre pour NY, c'est moins rigolettant - ils vont perdrent l'électricitée longtemps et leurs métro encore plus longtemps - et "etc"...

Bon, et bien j'ai décidé de lâcher mes occupations pour suivre ce système historique: Regardez moi ça ! note: ça prend du temps à charger... http://www.ssec.wisc...&aniheight=1300

Un copie/collé avec mon commentaire qui se résume à: "" "" ... Latest on Sandy from our own pro met Jeff Lindner: Unprecedented cyclone impact to the NE US and mid Atlantic over the next 72 hours will require a significant and coordinated local, state and federal response. Life threatening record breaking storm surge event likely for northern New Jersey and New York Harbor including Long Island Sound, the Hudson River, and Raritan Bay. Preparations to protect life and property must be completed by dark today…failure to comply with mandatory evacuation orders will place lives in danger. Hurricane Sandy becomes the second largest tropical cyclone ever in the Atlantic basin with tropical storm force winds extending outward 520 miles from the center and hurricane force winds 175 miles from the center. Discussion: Unfortunately, historic ingredients coming together exactly as forecasting models have predicted to bring a massive and highly destructive storm to the eastern 1/3rd of the United States. Hurricane Sandy moving to the NE this morning well off the North Carolina coast however tropical storm force winds and high seas are battering the eastern part of North Carolina and spreading northward toward the lower DELMARVA area. Latest recon passes indicate a central pressure down to 951mb or nearly equal to Hurricane Ike….only much larger in size. The wind field continues to expand outward as Sandy is increasingly coming under more mid latitude influences however deep convection is being maintained near the center of the system and Sandy remains a tropical cyclone at this time. There is little spread now in the forecast track of Sandy and its post tropical “mega” storm with nearly all available meteorological tools showing the center of the system crossing the central New Jersey coast Monday evening near the time of high tide! The GFS is forecasting an absolutely astounding 53mb pressure fall in 6 hrs along the New Jersey coast Monday evening as this storm moves ashore. Forecasted central pressures for the system as it makes landfall look to break historical pressure records which range from the mid to low 960’s for nearly all the major eastern US cities. For comparison, the current central pressure of Sandy would break all pressure records in this part of the country by 10-15mb. The current 951mb pressure is already significantly lower than the 1991 Perfect Storm: 972mb and the superstorm of 1993: 960mb both of which crippled the eastern US. Impacts: Storm Surge A “worst case” track for life threatening and devastating storm surge is likely for northern New Jersey and New York City including Long Island and Long Island Sound. It is likely that Sandy will be moving onshore Monday evening very near the lunar high tide peak only worsening the potential for record breaking storm surge. Extra-tropical storm surge modeling is producing record values for the northern New Jersey coast at Sandy Hook and at the NYC Battery. The previous Sandy Hook, NJ record is 10.1 ft in 1960, and the forecast for Monday evening is a peak surge of 11-12 feet. Surge values at the western end of Long Island Sound pushing toward eastern New York City are on the order of 11-13 feet and 10-11 feet at “The Battery” in NYC. For comparison, Hurricane Irene last year produced about a 6 foot storm surge into western Long Island Sound and NYC. This is a perfect setup for a large and destructive sea water inundation event over the north New Jersey and New York coast. Areas that have never flooded before will likely flood with sea water in this event and it is likely that sea water will enter and flood the New York City subway system. Wave watch III models and local SWAN modeling shows massive offshore waves of 25-40 ft breaking at 15 feet on the beaches. Dune protection will be completely destroyed and as the storm surge and high tide peak Monday evening, large and destructive wave action will be aimed into coastal structures….many structures will be battered to the point of total collapse or washed into the ocean. Surge and wave action will likely overtop the Jersey boardwalk and seawall protection especially along the northern New Jersey coast. On a scale of 0-6, this storm has a 5.2 storm surge damage rating! Winds: Strong winds will begin to arrive on the coast this evening and spread inland on Monday with the greatest winds expected Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. Sustained winds of 35-50mph with frequent gust to 65-80mph will occur from the DELMARVA To southern New England and well inland over much of the NE US, eastern Canada, and portions of the OH valley. Winds will batter this area for 20-48 hours producing a long duration event. Trees and power lines will give way over time and suspect that this storm will produce one of the largest if not the largest power outages ever in the US. It is likely that over 10-20 million persons will be without power as this storm passes. Power restoration and debris clean up will take weeks! Rainfall: Rainfall totals of 4-8 inches will be common over a large area of the NE US and mid-Atlantic resulting in major inland flooding. Isolated totals of 12 inches will be possible over the DELMARVA. Historically flood prone areas will likely experience flooding with rivers and creeks possibly recording major flooding levels. Snow: Heavy wet snow will be possible on the backside of the system over portions of WV and eastern OH as the cold air sweeps into the backside of the system. Totals of 12-18 inches will be possible, but due to the wet nature of the event, trees will likely be brought down due to the weight of the snow. Significant and potentially long term disruptions in travel are likely!

BIG BIG LOL !

Imaginez un magistral "Pofff" -

NY a disparue !

Je crois que le scénario pour NY s'évapore avec le fait qu'il n'y aurait pas d'entré direct ou "direct hit" donc pas de marée d'ouragan et par conséquent pas d’inondation majeure. Aussi Sandy perd graduellement sont statue d'ouragan - plus tôt que prévue...

Pas de commentaires...

Une autre vue de Sandy - Ouff... en fin d'Octobre... L'oeil est petit et contracté - Cuba est dans la m........

En route pour une catégorie 2 ou 3 ??

C'est vraiment un copie/collé - There remains a lot of model uncertainty on where Sandy might go, and I still give a 30% chance that the storm will have a minimal impact on the U.S. An extra set of balloon-borne radiosondes is going to be launched at 2 pm EDT on Thursday all across the U.S., which should help tomorrow evening's model runs make better forecasts of where Sandy might go. Extra radiosondes will be launched every 6 hours through Saturday afternoon. Jeff Masters

Bon et bien - faudrait partir un post sujet "fin de la saison des ouragans 2012" Les ipothèses se transforment en scénarios et se concrétisent peu à peu, sorties après sorties des modèles - Par: Bryan Norcross sur Facebook: Wow... what an extraordinarily unusual scenario. What seemed like a fluke of an idea - a hurricane-like system hitting the northeastern U.S. - is gaining credibility. Originally the European model was on its own with the spectacular but som ewhat bizarre idea that Sandy would be injected with jet stream energy and curve back toward New England as a stunningly strong storm. Now one model after the other, including the ensembles, are favoring a swing back toward the East Coast after the storm goes by Cape Hatteras. This the the afternoon run of the American GFS model ensembles - multiple lower-resolution runs with slightly different initial information, which allows for the fact that we can't measure the atmosphere precisely among other things. The majority of the possible tracks now head into the Northeast, New England, or Atlantic Canada. Could it really be a strong hurricane, as the European model predicts? We know that, occasionally, hurricanes do occur at these high latitudes at the end of October. Famously, the "Perfect Storm", otherwise known as the Halloween Hurricane battered New England in 1991. Also, Category 2 Hurricane Ginny hit Nova Scotia in late October 1963. But, neither were of a scale and impact like the Euro is showing. With the influence of the jet stream, you would think any storm that comes ashore would be subtropical in nature - part tropical and part like a nor'easter - but the NHC doesn't allow for subtropical hurricanes in their naming scheme. It's considered to be such a rare and nearly impossible event. The spectacularly unusual confluence of events is the shape and orientation of the dip in the jet stream that is forecast to develop over eastern North America over the weekend - oriented in such a way to pull Sandy inland instead of pushing it out to sea, and the presence of a strong tropical or subtropical system where it can get pulled in. That's so bizarrely unusual that I can't think of another event like it. This kind of thing occasionally happens with nor'easters, notably the Great Appalachian Storm of November 1950 which curved in off the Atlantic and dumped 20 to 30 inches of snow over a wide area in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, but the odds of it happening with a system that originated in the tropics - with all of the moisture that that implies - are extremely low. We certainly don't know that it's going to happen, and our concern at the moment is for our friends in the Caribbean and the Bahamas who will take a direct hit from a strengthening hurricane. The Florida and Carolina coasts also need to be ready to take protective action - especially boaters and people right at the coast - depending on the track Thursday to Saturday. But it's not often that credible forecast models consistently forecast a historic event, and with more models leaning that way, we need to be aware and pay attention along the entire U.S. East Coast.

Avec une entrée sur NY à 70 nœuds et sur nous autour de 50 ça serait un évènement de vents intéressant... Joe Bastardi fait son dessin: