Pooram

BIG BIG LOL !

Imaginez un magistral "Pofff" -

NY a disparue !

Je crois que le scénario pour NY s'évapore avec le fait qu'il n'y aurait pas d'entré direct ou "direct hit" donc pas de marée d'ouragan et par conséquent pas d’inondation majeure. Aussi Sandy perd graduellement sont statue d'ouragan - plus tôt que prévue...

Pas de commentaires...

Une autre vue de Sandy - Ouff... en fin d'Octobre... L'oeil est petit et contracté - Cuba est dans la m........

En route pour une catégorie 2 ou 3 ??

C'est vraiment un copie/collé - There remains a lot of model uncertainty on where Sandy might go, and I still give a 30% chance that the storm will have a minimal impact on the U.S. An extra set of balloon-borne radiosondes is going to be launched at 2 pm EDT on Thursday all across the U.S., which should help tomorrow evening's model runs make better forecasts of where Sandy might go. Extra radiosondes will be launched every 6 hours through Saturday afternoon. Jeff Masters

Bon et bien - faudrait partir un post sujet "fin de la saison des ouragans 2012" Les ipothèses se transforment en scénarios et se concrétisent peu à peu, sorties après sorties des modèles - Par: Bryan Norcross sur Facebook: Wow... what an extraordinarily unusual scenario. What seemed like a fluke of an idea - a hurricane-like system hitting the northeastern U.S. - is gaining credibility. Originally the European model was on its own with the spectacular but som ewhat bizarre idea that Sandy would be injected with jet stream energy and curve back toward New England as a stunningly strong storm. Now one model after the other, including the ensembles, are favoring a swing back toward the East Coast after the storm goes by Cape Hatteras. This the the afternoon run of the American GFS model ensembles - multiple lower-resolution runs with slightly different initial information, which allows for the fact that we can't measure the atmosphere precisely among other things. The majority of the possible tracks now head into the Northeast, New England, or Atlantic Canada. Could it really be a strong hurricane, as the European model predicts? We know that, occasionally, hurricanes do occur at these high latitudes at the end of October. Famously, the "Perfect Storm", otherwise known as the Halloween Hurricane battered New England in 1991. Also, Category 2 Hurricane Ginny hit Nova Scotia in late October 1963. But, neither were of a scale and impact like the Euro is showing. With the influence of the jet stream, you would think any storm that comes ashore would be subtropical in nature - part tropical and part like a nor'easter - but the NHC doesn't allow for subtropical hurricanes in their naming scheme. It's considered to be such a rare and nearly impossible event. The spectacularly unusual confluence of events is the shape and orientation of the dip in the jet stream that is forecast to develop over eastern North America over the weekend - oriented in such a way to pull Sandy inland instead of pushing it out to sea, and the presence of a strong tropical or subtropical system where it can get pulled in. That's so bizarrely unusual that I can't think of another event like it. This kind of thing occasionally happens with nor'easters, notably the Great Appalachian Storm of November 1950 which curved in off the Atlantic and dumped 20 to 30 inches of snow over a wide area in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, but the odds of it happening with a system that originated in the tropics - with all of the moisture that that implies - are extremely low. We certainly don't know that it's going to happen, and our concern at the moment is for our friends in the Caribbean and the Bahamas who will take a direct hit from a strengthening hurricane. The Florida and Carolina coasts also need to be ready to take protective action - especially boaters and people right at the coast - depending on the track Thursday to Saturday. But it's not often that credible forecast models consistently forecast a historic event, and with more models leaning that way, we need to be aware and pay attention along the entire U.S. East Coast.

Avec une entrée sur NY à 70 nœuds et sur nous autour de 50 ça serait un évènement de vents intéressant... Joe Bastardi fait son dessin:

La Prairie rive sud ouest - grosse averse (enfin de la flotte !) vents modérés à fort C'était pas très long... Parlant de "long" regardez moi ça... Petit souvenir de l’hiver 97 - ?

Bon, -_- -_- laissez moi être positif s.v.p. c'est une question d'honneur... "il y aura un orage à Montréal" Ajout: J'ai des rafales à 80 et +

Plus qu'intéressant ! La zone Capverdienne est le plus imposant point de départ.

On s'entend que ce serait un ouragan - les modèles coopèrent - mais no hurry to go anywhere this week...

Ouff et ça continue... je crois vraiment que ça y est - ça s'imbrique ça se danse ça se prend au sérieux ! Mais elle est toujours dans le shear semble t'il "???"

Je ne sais pas pour le 9 mais après ça serait bien d'avoir de la grande pluie - Leslie, entend tu notre appelle ?

Explosion convective considérable dirons nous...

Si elle ou il survie au vents d'altitudes qu'il y aura en début de semaine ...

Ok ok, pas sur le centre phamtôute ! Lol Mais quand même, elle prend de la force et de l'expansion.

La convection était pas sur le centre ??? que c'est t'il passer ? en si peu de temps

Eric, Pas de farce je ne me suis pas rasé depuis 5 jours -------- mais en réalité je fais aussi de la figuration et je dois avoir une barbe d'époque pour le film Louis Cir... Bon voici ce qu'a à dire notre Jeff Masters sur Leslie - on verra bien... Dr Jeff Masters latest discussion about Leslie and long range implications. Tropical Storm Leslie a long-range threat to Bermuda, Canada, and the U.S. East Coast Tropical Storm Leslie formed on Thursday in the Central Atlantic. Leslie's formation date of August 30 puts 2012 in 2nd place for earliest formation date of the season's 12th tropical storm. Only 1995 had an earlier formation date of the season's 12th storm. With records dating back to 1851, this year is only the second time 8 total storms have formed in August. The other year was 2004, when the first storm of the season formed on August 1 (Alex), and the 8th storm (Hermine) formed on August 29th. Satellite loops show that Leslie has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, and respectable low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow. Conditions appear ripe to allow Leslie to intensify into a Category 2 hurricane by Sunday. Fortunately, Hurricane Kirk is weakening the ridge of high pressure to the north of Leslie, and Leslie is expected to turn to the northwest and miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. However, steering currents for Leslie are expected to collapse early next week, as Leslie gets stuck between two upper level lows. The storm will then slowly meander over the open ocean for many days, potentially threatening Bermuda. Leslie will stay stuck until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast around September 8. This trough should be strong enough to pull Leslie to the north and then northeast by September 9. At that time, Leslie may be close enough to the coast that the storm will make landfall in New England, Canada, or the Mid-Atlantic states. Leslie could also miss land entirely; this all depends upon the timing and strength of the September 8 trough of low pressure. Regardless, Leslie is expected to bring an extended period of high waves to the U.S. coast. According to NOAA's Wavewatch III model, large swells from Leslie will reach Bermuda by Monday, and arrive along the U.S. East Coast on Tuesday. These waves will be capable of creating dangerous rip currents and beach erosion

La sécheresse à certains endroits, change vraiment le paysage - les masses de feuillages ne sont pas dutout de la même texture que d'habitude. Et le sol... il y a des pistes cyclabes qui fonts des crevaces comme un gel le ferait sur des mauvais pavés, l'hiver...

Eric, ce ne sont pas tes yeux qui l'on vuent cet ouragan, plustôt ton intuition - il est la je crois... Il y a un : up to 70% avec invest 98L - future "Leslie" Une trajectoire possible est de longer la côte ou carrément d'y enter...

Oui, moi aussi... Mais c'est encore loin pour nous: une bonne grosse pluie /60 - 100ml ou bien deux quatre rafales à 55km avec des nuages bas et humides sur deux jours...

Bastardi parlait hier de la possibilité qu'il resorte par la Caroline du N - mais il faudrait qu'il y ait tout un set up pour qu'il revienne sur nous...