srtbro

La neige commence à reprendre d'intensité sur la rive-sud de Montréal.

Je pense que c'est ''850/700MB FRONTOGENESIS BAND WORKS OVER THIS AREA BY LATE MORNING AND OVER REST OF CWA''. C'est un terme que le centre météo américain utilise pour décrire cette bande de précipitations plus actives ou convectives.

C'est intéressant de voir que la bande neigeuse se déplace du sud-ouest en direction nord-est en longeant parallèlement la vallée du St-Laurent entre Cornwall, Montréal et Québec.... alors qu'au sud il y a presque pas de précipitations pour le moment comme en Estrie. Les centres de ski prient pour la neige là-bas...c'est sûr!

À Longueuil, c'est toujours couvert.

Qu'en pensez-vous de la fente sèche sur le sud de l'Ontario et sur l'Ohio tard ce soir? Est-ce qu'elle va couper sur les accumulations prévues pour le sud du Québec ou le système cotier va prendre de la force et le mouvement des précipitations actuellement sur nos secteurs va devenir stationnaire et même s'intensifier en matinée du 26 déc? http://icons.wunderground.com/data/640x480/2xne_sf_anim.gif http://icons.wunderground.com/data/640x480/2xne_ir_anim.gif

Le 0Z GEM REG du 26 déc donne une équivalence de 10 mm à possiblement 15 mm par endroits pour le sud et le centre du Québec vs le 12Z GEM REG du 25 déc qui a donné du 15 mm à possiblement 20 mm + par endroits. http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_f...ast/512_100.gif

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 446 PM EST MON DEC 25 2006 ...WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT... .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...AS ADVERTISED VERY COMPLEX AND MESSY WEATHER SCENARIO DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT WITH WEAK SECONDARY ALONG THE COAST TO CONSOLIDATE INTO GULF OF ME LOW TUES AFTERNOON. HIGHEST IMPACT TO BE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. IN THE WARNING AREA...HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF NEAR A FOOT POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH GENERALLY 4 TO 8 INCHES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS MIX WITH RAIN OR SLEET TO HOLD AMOUNTS DOWN. STILL LOOK FOR UP TO AN INCH OF QPF WITH THIS STORM. IN THE ADVISORY AREAS EXPECT NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND SW ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY TO PUSH 3 TO 7 INCHES NEAR WARNING CRITERIA WHILE ACROSS SRN VT BULK OF PRECIP WILL FALL MAINLY TONIGHT WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED AND TOTALS HELD IN CHECK ON TUES WITH A MIX OF PRECIP AND DRY SLOTTING ALOFT. A STRONG MID LEVEL WARM FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST 03-12Z TONIGHT WITH BURST OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS SRN ZONES WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN SRN VT. ON TUESDAY MESOSCALE HEAVIER PRECIP BAND EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND FAR NRN VT AS MID LEVEL FRONT REACHES THE CANADIAN BORDER...ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE FRONT THEN SLOWS DOWN AND PIVOTS IN DEFORMATION ZONE AND LIFTS MOIST (0.75" PW) AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7C/KM. INTENSIFICATION OF PRECIPITATION WILL AID DEVELOPMENT OF NEAR ISOTHERMAL LOW LEVEL TEMP PROFILE AND CHANGE ANY RAIN TO SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTH MAY START BRIEFLY AS A MIX BUT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. TUESDAY...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF VT AND PERHAPS SE ESSEX COUNTY NY COULD CHANGE TO RAIN SNOW SLEET OR DRIZZLE AS UPPER LEVEL DRY OUT WITH LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS AND 850 TEMPS WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO. THE INSTABILITY IN THE MID LEVELS HAS SHOWN ITSELF AS CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE LOW THIS MORNING IN THE DRY SLOT ALOFT. DESPITE THIS MODELS SEEMED TO INITIAL SFC PRES AND HGHTS FAIRLY WELL THIS MORNING. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE FRONT ALOFT TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY IN THE WARNING AREA. IN FACT GFS SHOWS THE RESPONSE TO THE INSTABILITY AS OMEGA BULLEYES THAT TRAVERSES THE HEAVY BAND IN NY ON TUESDAY. BOTH NAM AND GFS SEEM TO BE HAVING SOME TROUBLE DEALING WITH THE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND DID NOT MODEL CONVECTION WELL THIS MORNING. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productviewnat...FDBTV&version=0

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/forecast/tex...tin=fpcn13.cwqb Avertissement de neige en vigueur. Lanaudière. Lachute - Saint-Jérôme. Laurentides. Beauce. Drummondville - Bois-Francs. Mauricie. Montmagny - L'Islet. Charlevoix. Québec. Avertissement de neige en vigueur Avertissement de poudrerie en vigueur. Ce soir et cette nuit..Nuageux. Neige débutant au cours de la nuit. Accumulation de 2 cm. Vents d'ouest de 20 km/h avec rafales à 40 devenant légers ce soir. Vents devenant d'est à 20 au cours de la nuit. Minimum moins 2. Mardi..Neige parfois forte. Accumulation de 10 à 15 cm. Poudrerie en après-midi. Vents du nord-est de 30 km/h avec rafales à 60. Températures stables près de moins 1. Mardi soir et nuit..Neige parfois forte et poudrerie cessant au cours de la nuit. Nuageux par la suite. Accumulation de 5 cm. Vents du nord-est de 30 km/h avec rafales à 60. Minimum moins 7.

Pas d'avertissement pour Montréal. Montréal métropolitain - Laval. Ce soir et cette nuit..Nuageux. Pluie mêlée de neige débutant tard ce soir. Vents du sud-ouest de 20 km/h devenant du nord-est à 20 ce soir. Minimum zéro. Mardi..Pluie mêlée de neige se changeant en neige parfois forte le matin. Accumulation de neige de 10 cm. Vents du nord-est de 30 km/h avec rafales à 50. Températures stables près de zéro. Mardi soir et nuit..Neige cessant vers minuit. Nuageux par la suite. Accumulation de 2 à 4 cm. Vents du nord-est de 30 km/h devenant légers vers minuit. Minimum moins 5. http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/forecast/tex...tin=fpcn71.cwul

Suivez l'évolution du système d'heure en heure... http://icons.wunderground.com/data/640x480/2xne_sf_anim.gif http://images.intellicast.com/WeatherImg/RegionalRadarLoop/mpv_None_anim.gif

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/uploads/post-1009-1167019060.jpg

Le modèle canadien régional qui avait donné de la pluie pour Montréal et l'Estrie pour le matin du ''boxing day'' se replace et donne maintenant que surtout de la neige mais possiblement fondante ou mêlée avec de la pluie au début des précipitations surtout le matin du ''boxing day'' et surtout pour Montréal et au sud-ouest jusqu'à Cornwall et ensuite se transformant en neige partout au courant de la journée. http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/c34_50.gif Montréal pourrait connaître 5 cm + Québec pourrait connaître 10 cm + Selon le modèle, la Beauce près de la frontière du Maine pourrait recevoir 15 cm + http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/520_50.gif

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productviewnat...FDBTV&version=0 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 423 PM EST SUN DEC 24 2006 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF VT AND NORTHERN NY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW LATE CHRISTMAS NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EXACT AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN DUE MAINLY TO PRECIP TYPE IN VT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE ADIRONDACKS. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SHOWING THE ADIRONDACKS WITH HIGHEST PROBABLY FOR A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT AND AMOUNT OF QPF. ANY SHIFT IN THE STORM TRACK WILL AFFECT BOTH PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE GULF COAST TONIGHT TOWARD KPIT BY 12Z TUE THEN SHIFT/REDEVELOP EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF ME TUE NIGHT. LOCAL RESEARCH HAS SHOWN THIS TRACK IS NORMALLY A HEAVY PRECIPITATION PRODUCER WITH 1.00" OF QPF IN THE KBTV AREA. PROBLEM WILL BE MIX/WETNESS OF THE SNOW WHICH COULD KEEP AMOUNTS DOWN SOMEWHAT. BASICALLY A 10-12:1 RATIO IS ASSUMED FOR AREA WHEN SNOW IS FALLING FOR THIS EVENT. FOR TONIGHT RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE AREA BUT LACK OF SNOW COVER WILL PRECLUDE TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S. RIDGE MOVES OFF RAPIDLY LATE CHRISTMAS DAY AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY. SHOULD BE ANOTHER DAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. TOMORROW NIGHT CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN WITH PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT FROM SW TO NE REACHING BTV AROUND 06Z AND FAR NE KINGDOM BY 12Z. IT LOOKS LIKE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE MILD ENOUGH TO START AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG AND POSSIBLY JUST SOME RAIN IN SOUTHERN VT. GOOD QG FORCING AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION REACHING THE CANADIAN BORDER BY TUE MORNING. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY IN NORTHERN NY. FOR TUESDAY THE AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND DEEP MOISTURE (PW > 0.60 IN) BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN NY AND MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS VT DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BECOME HEAVIER DURING THE DAY AND WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION EXPECT ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE REACHING KVSF BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER AND TAPERS OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES QUICKLY AWAY. AGAIN HIGHEST TOTALS SHOULD END UP IN NRN NY BUT JUST A LITTLE TOO SOON TO GET CAUGHT UP IN EXACT AMOUNTS.

La run du 12Z NAM donne maintenant un système plus faible avec moins de précipitations comme le GFS de cette nuit l'a montré.

Des commentaires sur le nouveau 0Z GFS? Très différent du 0Z NAM, le système est plus à l'est et il y a moins de précipitations pour le sud du Québec... Peut-être un run à jeter à l'eau ou une nouvelle tendance?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/track...0606_model.html http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at200606_model.gif http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/wp200601_5day.gif In the extended forecast from tau 72 to tau 120 sty 01c will continue to track northwestward and will slowly weaken due to its track into cooler SSTs. An increase in vertical wind shear will also help to weaken the system through tau 120. A slight poleward drift is expected between tau 96 and tau 120 as an approaching midlatitude trough starts to weaken the subtropical ridge. Available guidance indicates that even as the ridge begins to weaken, the system will still continue to track towards the northern portion of Japan. http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/wp200...sc.html#a_topad

C'est officiellement Ouragan Ernesto. Svp modifier le titre du message à ouragan en développement, merci. HURRICANE ERNESTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 504 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006 ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO HAS NOW REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH... RECENT DROPSONDE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH. THIS MAKES ERNESTO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. $$ FORECASTER STEWART http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/270951.shtml

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006 BIG CHANGES IN BOTH THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND FORECAST TRACK WERE REQUIRED...UNFORTUNATELY...FOR THIS ADVISORY. LATEST RECON DATA INDICATE ERNESTO IS LIKELY UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION. AN EYE IS FORMING AND MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 78 KT WERE RECENTLY OBSERVED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH EQUALS ABOUT 62 KT SURFACE WINDS...SO ERNESTO IS VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE EYE IS SO SMALL...HOWEVER...THAT THE FLIGHT CREW HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO PROPERLY ASSESS THE MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE. THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS BECOME QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH LITTLE OR NO VERTICAL SHEAR NOTED ON THE SYSTEM NOW...AND CIRRUS OUTFLOW EXPANDING OUTWARD IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 295/08...BASED ON A 12-HOUR AVERAGE MOTION. THE CENTER HAS BEEN REFORMING CLOSER TO THE STRONG CONVECTIVE BURSTS WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -85C. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL REFORMATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE ROUND CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS COULD BRING ERNESTO OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI LATER TODAY. FOR THAT REASON...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. NOW FOR THE REST OF THE BAD NEWS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE RIGHT OR EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT 96 AND 120 HOURS..AND NOW TAKES ERNESTO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THAT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL DIG EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... CAUSING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED OVER FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TO GRADUALLY ERODE EASTWARD. THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS APPEAR TO BE ERODING THE RIDGE TO QUICKLY AND HAVE ERNESTO OVER SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA IN 84 HOURS. THE REST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES THE CYCLONE FARTHER WESTWARD OVER OR WEST OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS NOW AGREE ON RECURVATURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AROUND 96 HOURS...AND TAKE ERNESTO NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA BY 120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WAS AS EQUALLY DIFFICULT TO PREPARE AS THE TRACK FORECAST WAS...AND IT HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK THAT ERNESTO TAKES DUE TO LAND INTERACTION WITH HAITI AND CUBA. EXCLUDING LAND INTERACTION...THE ENVIRONMENTAL AND OCEAN CONDITIONS CURRENT AND FORECAST TO BE AFFECTING ERNESTO ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM...AND FOR THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE LONGER TERM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS RAPIDLY DECREASING WHILE THE OUTFLOW IS RAPIDLY EXPANDING. IN FACT ...OUTFLOW CHANNELS HAVE NOW DEVELOPED TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF ERNESTO...WITH A THIRD CHANNEL POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TO THE WEST AND INTO AN UPPER-LOW MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN. THIS VERY FAVORABLE LOW-SHEAR AND ENHANCED OUTFLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. IF ERNESTO DOESN'T LINGER OVER CUBA FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS...THEN MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH SEEMS LIKELY BY 96-108 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY MODEL FORECASTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0900Z 17.0N 73.1W 60 KT 12HR VT 27/1800Z 17.8N 74.5W 70 KT 24HR VT 28/0600Z 19.3N 76.3W 85 KT 36HR VT 28/1800Z 20.6N 78.1W 85 KT 48HR VT 29/0600Z 22.1N 80.2W 70 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 30/0600Z 24.4N 83.1W 80 KT 96HR VT 31/0600Z 26.5N 84.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 01/0600Z 30.0N 81.5W 70 KT...INLAND $$ FORECASTER STEWART http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/270900.shtml

Changement majeur sur la trajectoire ce matin: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0506W5_sm2+gif/091228W_sm.gif

2 modèles (GFS et NOGAPS) à 00 Z du dimanche 27 août 2006 montrent une trajectoire beaucoup à l'est qui pourrait mener en Floride (incluant les Keys) après qu'Ernesto ait traversé Cuba. Cependant, il y a un modèle WRF, qui a été très performant lors du passage de Katrina il y a 1 an, montrait recemment une trajectoire dans l'ouest du Golfe du Mexique. On va voir si ca va être aussi performant pour Ernesto. Voici le lien le modèke WRF: http://wrf-model.org/plots/realtime_hurricane12.php

Le centre météo de Burlington Vermont mentionne ce soir sur discussion ci-bas que les précipitations continues (la pluie légère) s'estomperont plus rapidement que prévu et deviendront plus éparces en matinée vers l'ouest de Montréal et en après-midi vers l'est de Montréal au lieu d'une pluie continue jusqu'en soirée. Donc le gros va tomber ce soir et cette nuit. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 958 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2006 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF SURFACE AND UPPER LVL FEATURES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. SFC COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS SRN QUEBEC...VCNTY OF THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER NEAR MONTREAL... WITH BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ALONG THE BNDRY NORTH OF OUR FA. MEANWHILE...1008MB SFC LOW DETACHED FROM FRONTAL BNDRY IS TRACKING EWD ACROSS SWRN NY WITH MAJORITY OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ACROSS SERN/E-CENTRAL NY AND FAR SRN VT. WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT CONCENTRATED ELSEWHERE...PRECIPITATION CONTINUES INTERMITTENTLY AND GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PATCHY AREAS OF FOG. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE GENERAL RULE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CONTINUED LIGHT SLY GRADIENT WINDS AND NATURE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED. TOMORROW...IT APPEARS THAT MAIN SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH IS PROGRESSING EWD FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED. WE/LL STILL HAVE THE 700MB LOW NORTH OF LAKE HURON TO DEAL WITH AS IT DIGS SEWD ACROSS OUR FA TOMORROW AFTN. HOWEVER...I/VE HAVE TAPERED POPS DOWNWARD MOST SECTIONS TOMORROW AFTN /AND DURING THE MORNING IN FAR WRN FA/ AND NOTED PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHOWERY IN NATURE IN THE AFTN. POPS NOW CLOSER TO 18Z MAV GUIDANCE. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/BTV/AFDBTV

http://www.intellicast.com/IcastPage/LoadP...op&prodnav=none http://www.intellicast.com/WeatherImg/RegionalRadarLoop/mpv_None_anim.gif

Le mur = front froid/stationnaire au nord de Montréal. http://www.wunderground.com/US/Region/Nort...2xpxFronts.html http://icons.wunderground.com/data/640x480/2xne_sf_anim.gif

http://www.lapresse.ca/article/20060803/CP...19/CPACTUALITES Chasseurs... d'orages Mais ce qui fait le malheur des uns fait le bonheur des autres. Ainsi, Gaétan Cormier et sa bande de chasseurs d'orages jubilent. «La saison 2006, c'est ma préférée», dit ce monsieur, qui a fondé l'Association de chasseurs d'orages il y a deux ans. Sa passion: regarder les bulletins météo, analyser les données satellites, et se rendre là où ça frappe, caméscope à la main. «Mardi, c'était d'une violence assez incroyable, digne du couloir des tornades aux États-Unis, soutient-il avec un enthousiasme débordant. Je suis allé chasser l'orage à L'Épiphanie (Lanaudière) et j'ai filmé, grâce aux éclairs, un nuage en forme d'entonnoir qui ressemblait à une tornade.» Son association compte 30 membres, mais plus d'une centaine de personnes fréquentent régulièrement le forum de discussion du site Internet. La plupart des «chasseurs » sont observateurs volontaires pour Environnement Canada ; ils appellent et font rapport de ce qu'ils voient. Mais ils le font surtout pour le plaisir. «C'est un rush d'adrénaline, d'être tout prês de la tempête. Mais c'est aussi intéressant pour la science, soutient cet autodidacte, qui a forgé ses connaissances en météo en surfant sur Internet. La violence des orages, ça va en augmentant. C'est encore trop tôt pour relier ça aux changements climatiques, mais je pense que dans 30 ou 50 ans, les orages vont empirer. »