Et voila c'est officielle et sa fait longtemps que je l'observais. Several models, including the NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFS), suggest the development of La Niña during December 2008- March 2009 (Fig. 5). The recent strengthening of the low-level easterlies over the equatorial Pacific suggests the possibility of additional anomalous cooling of the SSTs. However, the magnitude of cooling remains uncertain and it is possible the La Niña threshold will not be met (3-month average of the Niño-3.4 index less than or equal to -0.5°C). Therefore, based on current observations and recent trends, ENSO-neutral or La Niña conditions are equally likely through early 2009.