Hiver 2007-2008: Le plus froid en 15 ans

[srtbro]

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...hub=CTVNewsAt11

 

Coldest winter in years, Environment Canada warns

 

CTV.ca News Staff

 

Updated: Fri. Nov. 30 2007 1:00 PM ET

 

The weather phenomenon La Nina will bring Canada the coldest winter in nearly 15 years, Environment Canada warned Friday.

 

Environment Canada's temperature forecast shows the majority of the country will experience a "temperature anomaly" of below-normal temperatures through the months of December, January and February.

 

Much of Nova Scotia, Saskatchewan, Alberta and parts of British Columbia and southern Ontario will also see above-normal precipitation.

 

David Phillips, senior climatologist with Environment Canada, told The Canadian Press that the temperature and precipitation abnormalities are likely the result of the weather phenomenon La Nina.

 

La Nina, meaning the little girl, is the appearance of cooler-than-normal waters in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean.

 

"La Nina is thought to occur due to increases in the strength of the normal patterns of trade wind circulation," Environment Canada's website says.

 

"For reasons not yet fully understood, periodically these trade winds are strengthened, increasing the amount of cooler water."

 

These cooler waters result in wetter-than-normal conditions in the northern hemisphere and changes to the jet stream over North America.

 

"The shifted jet stream contributes to large departures from the normal location and strength of storm paths. The overall changes in the atmosphere result in temperature and precipitation anomalies over North America which can persist for several months," Environment Canada says.

 

In the past, La Nina caused drought and floods around the world. It also whips up more hurricanes in the Atlantic.

 

The effects of the weather phenomenon have already been felt in parts of Western Canada. Earlier this month, a fierce storm dumped nearly 80 centimetres of snow on Whistler, B.C. over 48 hours. The massive snowfall prompted management at the famous Whistler Blackcomb ski hill to open one week ahead of schedule.

 

With files from The Canadian Press

 

http://www.ec.gc.ca/Content/E/D/4/ED4D7382-B39B-4D23-88B4-17DCEF5F096B/X-2007113012163220318.jpg

Modifié le 1 décembre 2007 par srtbro

[srtbro]

Aucune mention <<du 15 ans>> dans le media francophone mais il parle d'un hiver plus froid que l'an passe.

Modifié le 1 décembre 2007 par srtbro

[srtbro]

http://www2.canoe.com/infos/quebeccanada/a...130-055806.html

 

Météo

Un hiver plus froid et plus enneigé

Jean-Michel Nahas

Le Journal de Montréal

30/11/2007 05h58

 

Gardez pelles, mitaines et tuques de laine à portée de main, les prochains mois hivernaux seront plus froids et plus enneigés que l'an dernier.

 

Ces prévisions, peu réjouissantes pour l'amateur de soleil et de plage, proviennent de Météo- Média, qui a dévoilé hier son aperçu pour la saison froide.

 

Si le dernier hiver a tardé à se montrer le bout du nez, il en est tout autrement cette année.

 

Les températures plus mordantes et les bordées de neige qui ont déjà sévi sur le Québec depuis quelques semaines sont d'ailleurs le reflet de ce qui s'en vient, selon le météorologue Réjean Ouimet.

 

«Contrairement aux autres années, le mercure sera plus près des normales de saison cet hiver. Présentement, on a déjà reçu trois fois plus de neige qu'à l'habitude et ça se poursuivra.»

 

La neige en avril

 

L'an dernier, quatre grosses tempêtes ont laissé plus de 15 centimètres au sol à Montréal, mais la majorité de ces précipitations sont survenues au printemps, au cours du mois d'avril.

 

Cette fois, les flocons tomberont davantage en hiver, soit entre décembre et mars.

 

Quant aux désagréables averses de grésil, Réjean Ouimet affirme que le Québec devrait en recevoir une quinzaine.

 

Le météorologue affirme ne pas pouvoir prédire si un verglas aussi fort que celui de 1998 pourrait s'abattre à nouveau sur la province.

 

«La pluie verglaçante est un phénomène exceptionnel qu'on voit difficilement venir», dit-il.

 

À la grandeur du Québec, MétéoMédia prévoit une vingtaine de jours de froid au-dessous de la barre des - 20 degrés et une vingtaine de bonnes bordées de neige.

Modifié le 1 décembre 2007 par srtbro

[Mizar]

Par le fruit du hassard, meme si au départ ,je ne suis pas un admirateur de Brett Anderson de "ACW" mais,lui aussi cet apres-midi il a rendu publique ces sois disant prévisions pour l'hiver 2007-2008 et il va plus dans le sens contraire mais si vous remarquez, il commence déja a faire des "updates" a ces prévisions...il s'ajuste comme qui dirait donc... tirez en vos conclusions.

 

Reste maintenant a savoir qui des trois rendu bout de la ligne d'arrivé le 21 Mars auras eu raison...

 

-David Phillips de "EC"

-Réjean Ouimet de "MM"

-Brett Anderson de "ACW"

 

Ah oui, voici ces prévisions a lui.

 

 

My Updated Winter Forecast

Friday, November 30, 2007

This is my final updated winter forecast as promised. Below, you will see my original preliminary forecast for winter, which was made back in October. Based on the latest information from updated computer models and the current atmospheric and oceanic observations, including the now moderate strength La Nina phase going on in the equatorial Pacific, which was not unexpected, I will not make too many changes in my forecast from October. Any changes that I make will be in bold type at the end of each paragraph. I consider winter as December, January, February and most of March for Canada.

 

Newfoundland: Expect a mild start to the winter, and I think it will be slightly drier than normal as well with less snowfall compared to normal. Mid-winter will bring normal snowfall and slightly above-normal temperatures, but I think the coldest part of the winter will be in February with near or slightly below-normal temperatures and average snowfall. Update: Early December will be slightly colder and stormier than normal, but a major reversal will take place the second half of December into much of January with above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation, including snowfall. February should turn stormier again, with slightly above-normal temperatures and normal snowfall. Expect near-normal temperatures and precipitation for March.

 

Nova Scotia/Prince Edward Island: I think this winter will be fairly mild compared to normal, but the end of the winter may bring temperatures back toward normal. Snow and rain will be below normal for December and January but may be close to normal for February and into March. Update: Expect early December to be colder and stormier than normal then turning milder the second half of the month with drier than normal conditions. No changes to my original forecast for Jan-Mar.

 

New Brunswick: The winter of 2007/2008 should be mild compared to normal, but we may see some brief spells of arctic air coming in during the month of February. Snowfall will be less than normal in the south, with the best chance of a major snowstorm coming in February and early March. December snowfall will be less than normal in the north, but near-normal from mid-winter on. Update: Again, the first part of December should be colder and snowier than normal before the major flip to drier and milder weather late in the month and into January. I have no changes to my original ideas for February and March.

 

Quebec: Southern Quebec will have a milder-than-normal winter overall, but it will trend colder as we move into February. Temperatures across central Quebec will be closer to normal for the winter. In terms of snowfall, I think January will be fairly snowy across central Quebec and close to normal the remainder of the month. In the south, snowfall for the winter will be slightly below normal, but watch for a greater than normal amount of freezing rain in the St. Lawrence Valley the first half of the winter. Update: The first two to three weeks of December will be well-below normal for temperatures with above-normal snowfall. The end of December through January will see temperatures slightly above-normal with near-normal snowfall, along with some mixed precipitation. Overall, temperatures for the winter will be slightly above average for southern Quebec. Snowfall in the south overall for the winter will be near-normal, but i am still concerned for a higher than normal amount of ice storms. Feb and March will be close to normal for temperatures and snowfall.

 

Ontario: The winter overall looks to be milder than normal across central, southwestern and eastern Ontario, but it may be close to normal in terms of temperature sometime in February with some Arctic intrusions. Much of Ontario will see near- or below-normal snowfall for the winter, but the typical snow-belt areas will have more snow than usual thanks to the lakes staying warmer longer into the winter. Northern Ontario should see more snow than usual. Update: Expect much colder than normal temperatures the first half of December with above-normal snowfall and widespread, heavy lake-effect snows in the usual snow belts. Major flip coming later in the month with above-normal temperatures and near-normal precipitation, but northwestern Ontario should still see above-normal snowfall. January and February will end up slightly warmer than normal, but precipitation will be above-normal. Snowfall in the south during that period will be below-normal, while near-normal in the north. Temperatures and snowfall should be close to normal for March throughout much of the province.

 

Manitoba: The south will have typical winter temperature conditions with near-normal snowfall for December and January and below-normal snowfall for February. The central region will be colder than normal for the winter with more snowfall than average. Update: Early December looks very cold compared to normal with slightly above-normal snowfall. Temperatures from late December through January will be near-normal with above-normal snowfall in the south. Slightly colder than normal for Feb and March with slightly below-normal snowfall.

 

Saskatchewan: Temperatures early in the winter in the south will be colder than normal then trend back to normal for January and perhaps February, but there will be some pretty good shots of cold air that move through fairly quickly. Snowfall will be close to normal, with the best chance of above-normal snowfall early in the winter. Central Saskatchewan will average slightly below normal for temperature this winter with more snow than normal, especially December and January. Update: Early December will be very cold with near-normal snowfall. Temperatures will trend back to normal late in December through mid-January with above-normal snowfall. The rest of the winter will be slightly colder than normal with near-normal snowfall.

 

Alberta: Snowfall for the winter should end up higher than normal for the central and much of the southern part of the province this winter. Snowfall in February may be below normal in the far south. In terms of temperature, much of the province will be colder compared to normal for the winter, but there may be a mild spell in the south sometime in February which may reverse that trend. The mountains of western Alberta should see a lot of snow this season. Update: December will be slightly colder than normal, with the exception of this weekend, which will be bitterly cold. I have no changes from my earlier forecast for the remainder of the winter in terms of snow, but temperatures should pretty much be near or below-normal for the most part.

 

British Columbia: The winter will start out wetter than normal with a lot of snow in the mountains, while temperatures average close to normal in the west and below normal in the east and north. January and February will turn out colder compared to normal and somewhat drier, but nothing less than normal snowfall for these areas. I think this will be a great skiing season for BC. Speaking of skiing, check out the web cam link below from the Fernie Alpine Resort in the BC Rockies. This is near the 6000 ft (1820 meter) level on the mountain. Click the top image on the page. Update: I still think we are looking at a winter that will be colder than normal overall. In terms of snow, I am more confident that this will be an excellent ski season and snowfall throughout most of the province will be above-normal for the winter with some snow events to the coast. Rainfall will also be above-normal along the coast. One thing I will say, There will be a two to three week period during the middle of the winter where there is a break from the cold and precipitation before it goes back the other way, I am just not sure when that will be, perhaps late Jan or early Feb.

 

Updated: 11/30/2007 12:10 PM

Modifié le 1 décembre 2007 par Mizar

[Éclair]

Moi ça me fait penser à l'hiver 2002-2003 à date. Hiver précoce, et qui avait duré longtemps. Qui ne se rappelle pas du soir de l'invasion U.S. en Irak, le 23 mars 2003; il faisait à peu près -20 avec le vent.

[wingei]

Ça fa que en peu de temps les différentes sources nous auront prédit un hiver doux et un hiver historiquement froid....

 

Je m'en tiens donc a vos prévisions jours les gars.