Pooram

Disons que c'est à souhaytir ! comme dirait ma compagne Portugaise.

Voilà notre out put maison :

Le HWFI reste toujours avec son incroyable CAT 4... Et plus bas - 03/06z vents soutenues à 95 noeuds avec des rafales à 115

Merci les gars Erick, Alain, Zeus - Ce qui me fait déjà travailler les méninges c'est après le passage de ce système, s'il a vraiment lieu. Pour ce qui est de la similitude avec Sandy, sans doute aussi, si non plus brutal mais moins étendu comme effets (vents) sur la côte est USA et NY. Pour le liquide malheureusement, les prévisions sont simplement catastrophiques. J'aime toujours ça quand on a une référence visuel familière de ce qui se passe globalement (visible)... Et cette discution : HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 Joaquin has continued to strengthen overnight. Satellite imagery shows that the convection has become more symmetric, and recent visible images show what might be an eye trying to form. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported 700-mb flight- level winds of 83 kt and estimated 70 kt surface winds from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer, with a central pressure of 971 mb estimated from the aircraft data. Based on these, the initial intensity is increased to 70 kt. Joaquin has moved a little south of the previous track with an initial motion of 230/5. The shortwave ridge causing this motion is expected to weaken during the next 24-48 hours as a strong deep-layer trough develops over the southeastern United States. This is expected to cause the hurricane to turn northward by 72 hours. There is disagreement in the track guidance between the ECMWF and the other dynamical models. The majority of the guidance forecasts Joaquin to turn west of north after 48-72 hours, with the storm moving inland over the mid-Atlantic states and merging with the trough. On the other hand, the ECMWF forecast the hurricane to move out to sea between North America and Bermuda. The ECMWF forecasts Joaquin to move more to the south during the first 24-48 hours than the other models. In addition, it shows the hurricane interacting with an upper-level low to its northeast that results in a more eastward motion after 48 hours. The new forecast track, which is similar to the previous track, leans more toward the non-ECMWF guidance. However, out of deference to the ECMWF, it lies to the east of the center of the guidance envelope and the consensus models. The NOAA G-IV jet is scheduled to fly a synoptic surveillance mission this afternoon, which, along with special rawinsonde launches over the eastern U. S., hopefully will reduce the spread of the guidance. Joaquin is expected to remain in an environment of moderate northeasterly vertical shear for the next 24-36 hours. However, since it has been steadily strengthening in such an environment, there is no obvious reason to think it will stop doing so. After 36 hours, the hurricane is likely to move into an area of divergent southerly upper-level winds associated with the eastern U. S. trough. While there is uncertainty as to how much shear should occur, it is expected that additional intensification could occur through 72 hours. Based on this, the intensity forecast calls for Joaquin to peak as a major hurricane in about 72 hours, and it is possible it could be stronger than currently forecast. After 72 hours, increasing shear and cold air intrusion should cause weakening and the start of extratropical transition. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Confidence in the details of the track forecast late in the period remains low, since the environmental steering currents are complex and the model guidance is inconsistent. A wide range of outcomes is possible, from a direct impact of a major hurricane along the U.S. east coast to a track of Joaquin out to sea away from the coast. It is therefore way too soon to talk about specific wind, rain, or surge impacts from Joaquin in the U.S. 2. Should the threat to the U.S. increase, any further adjustments of the forecast to the west would likely be accompanied by an increase in the forecast forward speed, with impacts along the coast occurring sooner than currently forecast. A hurricane watch could be required for portions of the U.S. coast as early as Thursday evening. 3. Many areas of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing heavy rains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system. This inclement weather is expected to continue over the next few days, which could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head toward the coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 24.7N 72.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 24.3N 73.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 24.1N 74.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 24.4N 74.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 25.3N 74.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 28.5N 73.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 34.0N 73.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 38.5N 74.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

Merci Alain, Pour une vraie analyse je propose celle de Levi: ...À partir de 3:15 on parle des 4 circulations qui entourent Joaquin - intéressant... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/2015/09/29/joaquin-strengthening-an-imminent-threat-to-bahamas-long-term-future-uncertain/

Le même HWFI maintenant...

Et ça continue ...

Je suis un peu surpris qu'il n'y est pas d'échanges la dessus... Enfin je suppose que l'on ne s'y attendait pas... Regardez le HWFI - directement sur Montréal mais d'intensité modeste....

Si la dépression dans le golf du Mexique s'amalgame avec Joaquin et le front froid dans les prochains jours, on risque de se retrouver avec une sacrée tempête pour la côte Américaine de la Nouvelle E. et peux être nous en fin de course...?

En passant, parlant vents - si la dépression dans le golf du Mexique s'amalgame avec Joaquin dans les prochains jours, on risque de se retrouver avec une sacrée tempête pour la côte Américaine de la Nouvelle E. et peux être nous en fin de course...? Ajout: Et il y a le front aussi - donc 3 éléments majeurs... Alors les analistes du forum, faite vous entendre !"

Pour nous donc, vallée du Saint Laurent, les premiers vents de l'automne/hivers... ou premières manifestations du changement de régime.

Ha ha je suis incitable ! --------------------- je sais---------------- Ça va merci et toi, le mal du "pays" ne t’inonde pas l'âme ? ...Mais même El Ni~no fort "FAUT VOIR"...

Obregado Olivâtre, Ericko ! Muito bom ! En dents de scie oui, comme toujours... Très normale semble t'il - Plutôt sage pour un El Ni~no fort.

Ida semble satisfaite de son état et ne remet rien en question - Par contre le GFS nous fait ceci - plus bas: TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 500 PM AST SUN SEP 20 2015 Deep convection associated with Ida has decreased in coverage and become somewhat less organized today. The tropical cyclone remains sheared with a small band of convection located well east of the exposed center. Although Dvorak satellite T-numbers have decreased this afternoon, the initial intensity remains 40 kt, which is based on the earlier ASCAT data. Ida is moving northwestward or 305 degrees at 15 kt, a little faster than this morning. Despite the recent increase in forward speed, Ida is expected to slow down during the next 24 hours, and become nearly stationary by Tuesday when a mid-level ridge builds to the north of the system. Ida is then forecast to meander for a couple of days, before the ridge slides eastward and allows the tropical cyclone to resume a northwestward motion. The track guidance is in good agreement during the first few days of the forecast, but again becomes quite divergent by the end of the forecast period. The ECMWF, which moves Ida more eastward during the next few days, is along the eastern edge of the guidance envelope. Meanwhile the UKMET and GFS show less of an eastern motion while the steering currents are weak, and take Ida more westward by day 5. The updated NHC track is between these scenarios and remains close to the multi-model consensus at 96 and 120 h. The westerly shear is still expected to decrease during the next day or so, but given the current organization of the system, Ida may not be able to take full advantage of the potentially more favorable upper-air pattern. Therefore, only a slight increase in intensity is predicted. After 48 hours, upper-level westerly winds associated with a trough are forecast to cause an increase in shear over the cyclone, which would likely cause weakening. The global models, however, generally deepen the cyclone between 72 and 120 h when Ida interacts with an upper-level trough. The official forecast shows little change in strength late in the period and lies between these differing possibilities. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 18.4N 46.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 19.6N 47.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 20.9N 48.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 21.5N 48.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 21.5N 48.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 21.0N 48.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 20.9N 48.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 22.5N 49.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

Le ciel s'obscurcie ... pas grand chose d'intéressant en vue par contre... peut être un peu de vent pour la vallée du Richelieu.

Nouvel investe dans l'Atlantique (93L à 10.3°N 35.5°W ) Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure system located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it moves generally northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Le GFS nous fait ça en double avec la sortie d'un autre plus tard à 1001mb - par contre ce n'est pas dit que 93L va prendre cette courbe vers le N comme ça...

Grondements bizards------------ ... Averses fortes à partir de midi avec deux ou trois coups de tonnerre - toute la journée donc à 19h45 on est à 16,9.

...J'ai toujours voulue ça moi une panne électrique dans le carwash avec Rose...

Pas de veille et il y a un développement au SO de Montréal et de la rive sud - ça semblait volatile mais la ça se présise...

Y pleut pas laa ? Ha qu'on ai mêlé ... ------------------------------discution aprofondie sur un forum météo (rire accompagné d'une flatulence)

Grâce, n'est plus qu'une vague tropicale/dépression avec très peu de modèles qui montrent une continuité... Henri, par contre, en tant que tempête tropicale, pourrait perdurrer au moins en se développant quelque peu et aurrait une influence sur les côtes de Terre N - http://meteo.gc.ca/hurricane/statements_f.html

Ça passe à côté pour moi à moins que ça se redéveloppe vers l'O.

La cellule qui fonce vers Montréal et la rive S s'est considérablement dévellopper ... si se dégonfle pas ça va fair des accumulations...

Bizard cette alerte de foudre sur Montréal... Ma blonde a perdu du gros mobilier de terrain - dans le richelieu plouf ! l'orage le plus puissant qu'elle a jamais eu à St Denis su r richelieu.

Orages forts dans la vallé du Richelieu, Sorel etc...