Pooram

MMM, je ne sais pas il faut encore être bien prudent... Ça peux justement être comparable à Juan.

Il peu quand même y avoir un transfère d'énergie ...

LOL; je n'arrive pas à le détester - il fait tellement de "beaux efforts" !!!

Gabrielle: Deviendrait tout de même un ouragan dimanche ou lundi. 000 WTNT43 KNHC 042031 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 500 PM AST Wed Sep 04 2019 Recent microwave data suggest that Gabrielle continues to gradually become better organized, and the last few GOES-16 images show a convective burst forming over the center. The initial intensity is estimated at 45 kt based on the Dvorak number from TAFB and an earlier ASCAT pass from this morning, but it's possible that this intensity estimate may be conservative. The storm could intensify a little more in the short-term, but overall it is expected to remain in a marginal environment during the next couple of days, characterized by moderate southerly to southwesterly wind shear, low values of mid-level relative humidity and SSTs near 26-27C. Little overall change in strength is predicted during the next two days. Thereafter, some strengthening is likely as Gabrielle moves on the northeastern side of an upper-level low into a lower shear region, at the same time the cyclone moves over warmer water. The new NHC intensity forecast shows Gabrielle reaching hurricane strength in about 5 days, which is consistent with the latest HWRF, NOAA corrected-consensus and COAMPS-TC models. The initial motion is estimated at 325/8. For the next 5 days, Gabrielle is forecast to move generally northwestward toward a break in the Bermuda-Azores high pressure ridge. An increase in forward speed is expected due to the gradient between an upper-level low to the west and the ridge to the northeast. The latest models have shifted a little to the west for the point of recurvature in about 5 days, and the official forecast splits the difference between the previous NHC forecast and the latest various consensus models in the day 4 to 5 time period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 21.0N 34.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 21.7N 34.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 22.8N 35.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 24.2N 37.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 26.1N 39.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 30.0N 43.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 33.0N 47.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 36.5N 48.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake/Hagen

Gabrielle est né ! Il va pas se renforcer tellement pendant les 120 prochaines heures, donc pas trop de tendance nord... Ajout: Mais vers le N tout de même...

Bon ben coudon; Y prennent bien ça !

Cat. 2 à 23h - l’activée orageuse à reprise sur le centre...

Yoy pas facile à visualiser ça; mes pauvres yeux... Oui je me souviens.

From the discussion: A west-northwestward to westward motion should then continue into the weekend with Dorian moving near or over the northwestern Bahamas and toward the Florida peninsula. The guidance envelope has nudged southward this cycle, with the ECMWF and HMON along the southern side, and the GFS bracketing the northern side. There has also been an increase in along-track spread or speed differences with day 5 positions among the dynamical models ranging from near the northwestern Bahamas to the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This appears to be the result of differences in the models' depiction of the strength or lack thereof of the western portion of the ridge by day 5. The new NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged through the first 2 to 3 days, but has been adjusted southward and somewhat slower than the previous advisory at 96 and 120 hours. The National Weather Service has begun 6-hourly upper-air soundings across portions of the mid-Atlantic and southeastern United States. Six-hourly balloons are also being launched in Bermuda and Nassau in the Bahamas. A NOAA G-IV synoptic surveillance mission is ongoing, and the data from this flight will be assimilated into the 0000 UTC model cycle.

Merci.

Pas nécessairement non plus, parce que un cat 3, 4 ou 5 a une attirance vers le pole N, alors il y a des forces qui s'annulent. Un cat 1 ou 2 suit le courant vers le sud...

Exacte c'est ce que je mentionnais à propos d'Andrew.

Il n'est impossible qu'il frappe les Keys et aille se payer une coupe de brassées dans le GOM...

De quoi s'agit t'il au juste comme double hit ? any animation ?

Ha ha ! Mais !... L'activité orageuse sur l'oeil est un bon indicateur que ça se construit sérieusement.

On voit bien l'intrusion d'air sec sur le cadran sud - et l'amélioration sur la deuxième image... Quel modèle verra le plus juste selon vous ? l'euro ?

Andrew c'est vraiment fait dans les derniers 12 heures... Aucunes prédictions (télé Américaine) ne donnaient un catégorie 5 si je me souvient bien. Il y a encore de l'air sec au sud et même de la poussière Saharienne - Un coup sortit de la,,, et bien on va voir ... MM haha, Ils disent; La Floride se prépare à l'un des pires ouragans de son histoire - Y on l'tour de rien dire...

Haha, oui je l'avais vue celle la... An elongated low pressure system located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Some slow development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form well east of the Lesser Antilles by early next week while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development by Tuesday and Wednesday as the system approaches the Leeward Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Mmm, 70%... j'avoue que je comprend pas... Y pas un moment ou l'environnement s'améliore - dans 5 jours près de Porto Rico et rien ne change vraiment. An elongated low pressure system located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Slow development of this system is expected during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, and a tropical depression is likely to form several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are now forecast to become less favorable for additional development by early next week as the system approaches the Lesser Antilles. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Pour l'instant on a invest 96L dans l’Atlantique - Çà semble être très encerclé d'air sec et de poussières Sahariennes... Mais y a quelques modèles qui ne lâche pas le morceau...

Pollution du ciel par les avions... moins d'évaporation etc.

Ce soir même je me disais la même chose... connexion sidéral... Les structures nuageuses; de toute beauté au couchant - mamatus observés.

St Marc sur R - petits débris qui tombent et ci et la - pas de grands vents pourtant ni de tornades en vue... ?

En fait quelqu'un la très bien vue avant que son bateau foute le camp sans laisser de traces (radio Canada tv)

Mes barils vont déborder avec barry... et tes fleurs auront le nombril dans baril...