uranium

Tres venteux à Quebec ce matin. Est-Nod-Est. La tempete qui remonte draine de l'air.

Peut-être un refroidissement éolien à -30c vendredi matin?

Le HRDPS avait vu juste!

Dimanche matin observation : 7 cm ici depuis hier apres-midi.

Avis de tempête pour la N.E., sud du N.B. en standby. La trajectoire n'est pas encore scellée. Les regions pres de la frontiere au Quebec, quelques cm jusqu'à present.

Si ce set-up se concrétise, les regions pres des lignes US pourraient avoir plusieurs CM.

Low confidence toujours de mise sur ce système en lien aux divergences observées entre les modèles. Les sorties tendent à un low plus creux en surface. Un flag est levé sur le possible dev. d'un low à 700mb pres de la Nouvelle-Angleterre, contribuant à une poussée vers le nord d'une zone de neige. L'energie du GL low semble mieux repondre à la dynamique et se mêle de ce qui se passe sur la côte. My 2 cents. HOWEVER, THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF/CANADIAN AND A NUMBER OF THEIR ENSEMBLES SHOW A 700MB LOW ORGANIZING OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LIFTING N. THIS WOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS TO TRIGGER SOME SNOW W/DEEP MOISTURE SETTING IN PLACE. .

Averses legeres de neige, gracieuseté du soulevement de l'air formant des cumulus. Le soleil de ce matin jusqu'à ce midi fait son effet.

Le front sera moins actif rendu près du fleuve.

5 à 7 cm d'ici demain pour mon secteur.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/... THE NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACK TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ACROSS NORTHERN AND MOUNTAIN SECTIONS WE`LL SEE THE MOST WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT. THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW SQUALLS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH ITS PASSAGE AS WELL AS UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND IT. ON SUNDAY...WE STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 30F IN THE MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHILE WE`LL WARM INTO THE 40S ELSEWHERE AS WE AWAIT THE COLDER AIRS ARRIVAL FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EVOLUTION AND TRACKS OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAINS THE EVENTUAL SENSIBLE WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN PLAYERS ON THE TABLE REMAIN A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY WITH THE OTHER BEING THE LARGE UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WITH A FEW SMALL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN. A LONG LOOK AT DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA OVERNIGHT REVEALS A CONSENSUS THAT FAVORS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW BEING TOO FAR OUT TO SEA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR AREA. ALL OF THE 50 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A SURFACE LOW TRACK WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. THIS SUPPORTS THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS. THEREFORE A BIG IMPACT FROM THIS LOW IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...OUR REGION OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DOES GET INTO A COL REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS WILL PRESENT A BROAD REGION OF FRONTOGENESIS AND WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING. LIGHT SNOW FIRST DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADING INLAND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME. THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME PAINTS A MORE UNCERTAIN PICTURE AS MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES. A LARGE AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE REAL ESTATE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY TUESDAY MORNING AND IT/S ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. MOST DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AGREE THAT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AS A RESULT...BUT WHERE AND HOW STRONG IS THE PROBLEM. MUCH OF THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SCATTERED ALL OVER THE PLACE BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CLUSTERING OF LOW CENTERS EAST OF IT/S 00Z DETERMINISTIC RUN. HOWEVER...SEVERAL OF THE 50 ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO DEVELOP STRONG CYCLOGENESIS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST FOR AT LEAST A MODERATE- IMPACT SNOWSTORM SOMEWHAT LIKE THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC RUN. THIS SENTIMENT IS SHARED BY A SMALL NUMBER OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THEREFORE AS OF THIS WRITING...WILL HANDLE THE SITUATION WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN BASED ON THE REMAINING WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES. IN A NUTSHELL...WE ARE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET AS FAR AS A POSSIBLE IMPACTFUL SNOWSTORM GOES...CENTERED AROUND LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO REMAINS SOMETHING OF LOWER IMPACT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

Je vous rejoins tous les deux. Cependant, c'est interessant à surveiller. Le GEM sort et semble creuser le systeme un peu plus. Donc deplacement plus lent. La Beauce pourrait avoir quelques cm.

De belles éclaircies ce matin, une subsidence qui est bienvenue.

http://meteocentre.com/forums/topic/5931-comment-lire-les-diagrammes-de-température-à-850-hpa/

Front froid assez actif en effet. Mon secteur pourrait voir jusqu'à 5 à 7 cm possiblement.

Moncton ce soir sous la neige. http://www.moncton.ca/Visitors/Web_Cameras/Main_Street_East.htm.

Le nord de la NÉ pourrait recevoir jusqu'à 40cm!

Consensus pas mal entre le GEM et le GFS.

Faudra suivre l'interaction avec le Lake Clipper. On va bien que le centre de la côte siphonne l'energie vers la côte, mais ca va être determinant sur les quantites de neige.

Se pourrait-il que l'air doux se fait tardif à Quebec? -7 au mercure et je crois que c'est plus froid à 13h de ce qui était envisagé.

Conditions de tempête à Quebec.

J'ai deja vu emettre un avertissement de tempete pour moins que cela.

Pas beau à Quebec, autoroute Robert-Bourassa direction sud.

Aut-73 sud hauteur Charlesbourg. Poudrerie, neige modérée.

Le bordel-traffic envisagé hier soir s'est concrétisé ce matin.