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Bye Bye Dennis...Bonjour Emily!


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A 23h00 dimanche soir la 5e dépression tropicale de la saison s'est formée. Les experts croient qu'elle pourrait devenir Emily dans les prochaines 24 à 48 heures. Évidemment, il est encore trop tôt, mais la trajectoire que la dépression semble vouloir emprunter serait Puerto Rico et ensuite, les Bahamas. Ils parlent d'une trajectoire semblable à celle de l'ouragan Andrew. On verra bien... A suivre!

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Voila, a 11 pm Émily est officielement nommée...La Tempete tropical Émily génère en ce moment des vents de 45 mph...C'est étonnant que cette dépression aille déja passer le seuil de tempete tropical...A 8 heures ce matin, les experts prévoyaient qu'elle passerait le cap de tempete tropicale dans 24 a 48 heures...environ 14 heures plus tard c'est une tempete tropicale... :D :lol:

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Bonjour Franklin...( dans pas grand temps)

 

 

10:30 TWO:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1030 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2005

 

CORRECTED DISTANCE IN SECOND PARAGRAPH

 

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

 

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY

UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM EMILY...LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES

EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

 

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE

CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...OR ALSO ABOUT 875 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF

TROPICAL STORM EMILY. DESPITE ITS LOW LATITUDE POSITION...THIS

SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND CONDITIONS

APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT

COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 MPH.

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Les dernières prévisions confirment que cette tempête tropicale s'intensifiera rapidement en un ouragan de cat 3 d'ici vendredi. Il semble que c'est Cuba qui va encore être touchée.

 

Voici la discussion :

 

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on July 12, 2005

 

 

Emily is showing improved banding this morning...and a microwave

pass at 0920z does much to improve confidence in a well-defined

center location. The initial intensity is increased to 45 kt based

on a t3.0 Dvorak classification from SAB. Outflow is strong both

to the north and south of the center...and upper-level winds are

expected to be very favorable for continued development over the

next few days. Now that the circulation is consolidating...a more

rapid strengthening trend is likely...with the thermodynamic

environment being the only obvious inhibiting factor. Both the

SHIPS and GFDL models are forecasting Emily to be a major hurricane

in three days...and the official forecast is close to this

guidance.

 

 

The initial motion estimate is 270/18...considerably faster than

before. Model guidance...which has had something of a right bias

so far with this system...has trended southward over the past 12

hours. The deep trough currently visible in water vapor imagery

over the western Atlantic is expected to lift out and be replaced

by high pressure to the north of the tropical cyclone. This should

keep Emily on a basic west-northwest track for most or all of the

forecast period. After adjustments for the initial location of the

center...model guidance is still in excellent agreement...even more

so than yesterday. The official forecast has been shifted about

100 nmi south of the previous advisory...and is very close to the

dynamical model consensus.

 

 

Forecaster Franklin

 

 

forecast positions and Max winds

 

 

initial 12/1500z 11.0n 51.3w 45 kt

12hr VT 13/0000z 11.4n 53.8w 50 kt

24hr VT 13/1200z 11.9n 57.0w 60 kt

36hr VT 14/0000z 12.8n 60.2w 75 kt

48hr VT 14/1200z 14.0n 63.5w 85 kt

72hr VT 15/1200z 16.0n 69.5w 100 kt

96hr VT 16/1200z 18.0n 75.0w 100 kt

120hr VT 17/1200z 20.0n 80.0w 100 kt

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Article de AW

 

Tropical Storm Emily, now in the west-central Atlantic, is taking aim on the Windward Islands. It continues to gather strength, and this trend should continue through Wednesday. Upper-level winds are fairly light and are generally from west to east in the area where Emily is headed. This means that there is only weak shear; a favorable situation for any tropical system. Emily is expected to be nearing hurricane strength by the time it reaches the Windward Islands later Wednesday, and with overall conditions still quite favorable, Emily could be a major hurricane by the time it reaches the central Caribbean. should remain in a fairly westerly course the next couple of days as an area of high pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere will remain to its north. This will keep winds at the steering level blowing from east to west. Emily should roar across the central Lesser Antilles late Wednesday and then head into the eastern Caribbean Thursday.

post-2-1121203014_thumb.jpg

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Tropical Storm Emily approaching the Lesser Antilles..

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TOBAGO...GRENADA... THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...AND ST. LUCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR TRINIDAD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA...FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO CUMANA...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE.

 

Tropical Storm Emily, as of 8 a.m. EDT, was centered at 11.3 north, 57.2 west, or about 200 miles southeast of Barbados in the Lesser Antilles. The estimated central pressure is 997 millibars (29.44 inches). Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 60 mph with gusts to 70 mph. It is moving toward the west at 20 mph and is expected to turn slight north of west during the next 24 hours. Once Emily moves closer to the Lesser Antilles, it will be in a more favorable environment. Shear remains low, average surface pressures in the area remain low and water temperatures remain high. So, all the necessary ingredients for intensification are in place. We believe that Emily will track across the Lesser Antilles early tonight, and strengthen to hurricane status in the eastern Caribbean late tonight. It should take a track to the south of Hispaniola Friday and Friday night and is on a course that will take it south of Jamaica Saturday and Saturday night. Emily has the potential to strengthen into a Category 3 hurricane, especially when it gets into the western Caribbean, well away from the South American coastline. Over the next couple of days, how much the storm intensifies will be determined by how close it tracks to Tobago, Trinidad, and the coast of South of America. Obviously, interaction with land would disrupt the intensification process.

 

The large high pressure area over northern Florida is stronger now than what it was when Dennis was moving into the Gulf. So, it could be that this Atlantic ridge will be strong enough to guide Emily more westward, toward the Yucatan and even Central America.

 

A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic, along 33 west, south of 17 north, features a surface low near or just south of 15 north. This wave has a large envelope of clouds extending northward. This wave resembles the cloud pattern that Dennis had when it was in this same area, will certainly be watched for intensification.

Elsewhere in the Tropical Atlantic, a tropical wave along 40 west, south of 16 north has weakened since it is so close to Emily's circulation. So, it is doubtful that this feature will organize anytime soon. The tropical wave in the westernmost Caribbean is along 85 west, south of 18 north, moving westward into Central America.

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Emily maintenant ouragan de catégorie 2...un autre ouragan qui pourrait devenir majeur!!! ;)

 

Hurricane Emily in the southeastern Caribbean

AT 11 A.M. AST... 1200Z... AT 11 AM AST... 1500Z... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER. THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. AT 11 AM AST... THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO... INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF CUMANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE... CURACAO... AND ARUBA.

 

As of 11 a.m. EDT, Hurricane Emily was centered at 12.7 north, 64.0 west, or about 560 miles southeast of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic. The estimated central pressure is 976 millibars (28.82 inches). Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 100 mph with higher gusts. Emily is now a category 2 hurricane and is moving toward the west-northwest at 18 mph.

 

Emily is moving into, and should stay, in a mostly favorable environment for intensification. Shear remains low, average surface pressures in the area remain low and water temperatures remain high. We believe that Emily will track across the southeastern Caribbean and continue to intensify, as it moves away from the northern part of South America. Emily should take a track south of Hispaniola tomorrow and tomorrow night and is on a course that will take it close to or just south of Jamaica Saturday and Saturday night. Emily could become a Category 3 (major) hurricane this weekend on its way toward the Yucatan Peninsula. Emily may pose a threat to the south Texas Coast sometime during the middle of next week.

 

A tropical wave is along 40 west, south of 21 north; a 1011 millibar low is along the wave axis, near 15 north. Fairly strong convection, or thunderstorms, are occurring mainly north of the low pressure area. This system is moving west and will be watched for strengthening.

 

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, there is a tropical wave near the African coast along 22 west, south of 19 west. A weak tropical wave is along 47 west, south of 17 north. A tropical wave is over the Yucatan, along 92 west, south of 19 north, moving into the eastern Pacific.

 

Regardez la structure nuageuse...déja assez imposante Emily!

post-2-1121360558_thumb.jpg

Edited by meteomarc
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Et voila Emily est catégorie 3!!!...elle pourrait facilement passer la catégorie 4 avvant datteindre la péninsule du yucatan!

 

Hurricane Emily in the southeastern Caribbean

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO... INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF CUMANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE... CURACAO... AND ARUBA.

 

As of 8 p.m. EDT, Hurricane Emily was centered at 13.3 north, 66.7 west, or about 415 miles south-southeast of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic. The central pressure measured by a United States air force reconnaissance aircraft is 962 millibars (28.41 inches). Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph with higher gusts. Emily is a dangerous category 3 hurricane and is moving to the west-northwest at 20 mph.

 

Emily is moving into, and should stay, in a mostly favorable environment for intensification. Shear remains low, average surface pressures in the area remain low and water temperatures remain high. We believe that Emily will track across the southeastern Caribbean and continue to intensify, as it moves away from the northern part of South America. Emily should take a track south of Hispaniola tomorrow and tomorrow night and is on a course that will take it close to or just south of Jamaica Saturday morning. Emily has the potential to become a Category 4 hurricane on its way toward the Yucatan Peninsula. Emily may pose a threat to the Mexican coast or even south Texas Coast sometime Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

 

A tropical wave is along 41 west, south of 21 north; a 1012 millibar low is along the wave axis, near 15 north. Fairly strong convection, or thunderstorms, are occurring mainly north of the low pressure area. This system is moving west and will be watched for strengthening.

 

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, there is a tropical wave near the African coast along 24 west, south of 19 west

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A surveiller, un systeme de mieux en mieux défini dans le centre de l'Atlantique... les modeles prévoit quil pourrait bien devenir le prochain systeme tropical sous peu, Franklin sen vien p-e... voici une image infrarouge

 

http://img189.imageshack.us/img189/3599/franklin5pq.jpg

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Ehh oui... déja que Dennis ait déja causé des dommages considérables, voici Emily qui se montre en scène. Pour le moment, elle ne semble pas aussi forte que Dennis c'est sur, elle est encore en catégorie 3 mais vu qu'elle est encore dans les aux chaudes, elle pourrait encore prendre des forces.

 

Catégorie 4? Ca m'étonnerait mais c'est faiblement possible. Mais cat 3 ou 4(possible), elle affecterait (encore <_< ) la Jamaique et les cotes du Venezuela, mais surtout la Jamaique( hey cpas drole 2 fois :angry: :wacko: )

 

C'est à suivre! ^_^

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A surveiller, un systeme de mieux en mieux défini dans le centre de l'Atlantique... les modeles prévoit quil pourrait bien devenir le prochain systeme tropical sous peu, Franklin sen vien p-e... voici une image infrarouge

 

Oui, mais reste a voir, deux autres ondes sont passées avant et elles se sont écrasées.

 

Par contre, celle-ci semble plus vigoureuse puisque la convection s'est organisé pendant la nuit.

 

Reste a savoir, si elle va tenir.

 

Si elle devient ouragan, sa trajectoire pourrait plus orienté vers l'ocean et menacé la cote est.

Edited by Meteodoum
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Déja catégorie 4!!!...Les experts prévoyaient ca pour la journée de samedi et déja vendredi matin Emily est catégorie 4!!!...Je c pas si je suis dans le champs...mais tant qu'a moi c'est possible que Emily atteigne la catégorie 5 car il reste encore bcp de chemin dans les eaux chaudes avant que l'ouragan atteingne la péninsule du Yucatan ou elle fera bcp de dommage...t-k 20 mph de plus et la catégorie 5 est atteinte... ^_^

 

Hurricane Emily Remains a Category 4 Storm..

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

AT 8 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR VENEZUELA AND FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

 

As of 8 a.m. EDT, Hurricane Emily was centered at 14.1 north, 70.0 west, or about 525 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 millibars (28.11 inches). Maximum sustained winds are 135 mph with higher gusts. Emily is a dangerous category 4 hurricane and is moving toward the west-northwest at 20 mph.

 

Emily should stay in a mostly favorable environment for the next couple of days, one that will maintain its intensity. Shear remains low, average surface pressures in the area remain low, and water temperatures remain high. Emily will take a track south of Hispaniola today, and is on a course that will take it close to or just south of Jamaica tomorrow morning. Emily will make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula Sunday afternoon or Sunday night. Emily may pose a threat to the Mexican coast or even the South Texas Coast sometime Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

 

A tropical wave is in the middle of the Atlantic, along 42 west, south of 22 north, with a 1011 millibar low along the wave axis, near 16 north. This system seems be better organized, in comparison to 24 hours ago, and will be watched for development, even though the upper-level winds are not entirely favorable.

 

A tropical wave is in the far eastern Atlantic, along 24 west, south of 19 north, moving west. There is no strong convection, or thunderstorm activity, associated with this wave. There is a tropical wave along 51 west, south of 12 north. This system is in between Emily, and the well-organized wave in the central Atlantic, and is not likely to develop.

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EMILY MAY PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES

ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE

POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. EMILY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO

PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER JAMAICA...

WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS

COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

 

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...14.4 N... 70.9 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125

MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 968 MB.

 

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM

AST.

 

Je trouve quand même ca inquiétant au point de vue des quantités d'eau car ca dit entre 5 et 10 pouces (ce qui représente en cm 25 cm ce qui donne entre 200 et 250 mm! :wacko: ^_^ ). De plus, comme MeteoMarcdit, si l'ouragan est déja de statut 4 alors qu'il n'a même pas encore traversé l'atlantique au complet, ca risque de prendre encore de la force... si tel est le cas, Emily et Dennis seront les 2 plus gros ouragans à ce jour... <_< :angry: :wacko: :wacko:

 

Pour le moment, elle n'affecte peu de personnes, Emily est située dans l'atlantique mais se dirige tout droit vers la Jamaïque (eh oui, 2e fois...) avec une telle force... j'ose à peine imaginer! :wacko:

 

http://img346.imageshack.us/img346/3035/huvs1jw.jpg

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Vendredi a 8pm...Emily a des vents de 155mph!!!Le seuil de catégorie 5 est de 156!!!!!...en plus, dans les 24 prochaines heures(avant d'atteindre la péninsule du yucatan), Emily sera dans un environnement favorable pour le dévellopement...elle devrait rester comme elle est présentement ou meme augmenter de force!!!

 

 

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PROGRESSO...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA LATER SATURDAY EVENING. As of 8:00 p.m. EDT Saturday, Hurricane Emily was centered at 17.1 north and 79.5 west, or about 195 miles southeast of Grand Cayman. The minimum central pressure has lowered to 929 millibars (27.43 inches). Maximum sustained winds are 155 mph with higher gusts. Movement is west-northwest at 18 mph. Emily should stay in a mostly favorable environment for the next 24 hours before moving over land. This will keep Emily a dangerous hurricane until landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. Average surface pressures in the area remain low, and water temperatures remain high. Emily is expected to continue to fluctuate in intensity, especially if undergoing any eyewall replacement cycles. Emily will move away from the southwest coast of Jamaica Saturday evening on a west-northwest track. She will make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula Sunday night although conditions will dramatically worsen during the day Sunday. Emily may pose a threat to the northern or central Mexican coast sometime Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. There is still a chance that Emily could track a little farther north, which would put South Texas at greater risk. A tropical wave about 750 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands remains poorly organized Saturday afternoon. The wave will have to be watched for development, even though the upper-level winds are not entirely favorable.

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À date, Emily est au «stade» (catégorie) entre 4 et 5. Elle est très forte actuellement dans l'atlantique. Sa direction semble toujours stable vers le nord-ouest pas très rapide. Elle devrait toucher la péninsule du Yukatan d'ici les prochains jours.<

 

On voit bien l'amas de nuage avec l'oeil... c'est assez épais je dois dire! ;) ^_^

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