iceberg

LA NINA TOUJOURS TRES FORT .... The current La Niña event, characterized by a cooling of the sea surface in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific, has strengthened slightly in recent months and is expected to continue through the first quarter of 2008, with a likelihood of persisting through to the middle of the year. The ongoing La Niña event started in the third quarter of 2007 and has already influenced climate patterns during the last six months across many parts of the globe, including in the Equatorial Pacific, across the Indian Ocean, Asia, Africa and the Americas. During the last three months, La Niña conditions have become slightly stronger. Sea surface temperatures are now about 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius colder than average over large parts of the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific. This La Niña is in the mid range of past historically recorded events, but the slight further cooling in recent months will likely place it on the stronger side of the middle range. During a La Niña event, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific become cooler than normal. Such cooling has important effects on the global weather, particularly rainfall. While sea surface temperatures cool in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific, those in the west remain warmer. This is associated with increases in the frequency of heavy rain and thunderstorms in surrounding regions. In contrast to La Niña, the El Niño phenomenon is characterized by substantially warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific. These temperature changes in the Equatorial Pacific related to La Niña and El Niño are strongly linked to major global climate fluctuations and, once initiated, can last for 12 months or more. Most interpretations of existing climatological data suggest the likelihood of La Niña conditions remaining heightened through the second quarter of 2008 and, at a lower level of confidence, into the first part of the third quarter. Longer seasonal forecasts beyond the third quarter of 2008 are not considered to contain useful information at this stage on the continuation of La Niña or the rise of El Niño. It is rare for a La Niña event to persist for two years or more, such as occurred from early 1998 to early 2000. The likelihood of the current La Niña continuing for such a period will remain unclear for some months, but will be closely monitored. Long-term statistics suggest it is more likely that in the latter part of 2008, neutral conditions will prevail, i.e., neither La Niña nor El Niño with no significant cooling or warming of Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures. Adapted from materials provided by World Meteorological Organization. JOE BASTARDI A RAISON JE PENSE POUR LA NINA QUE PENSEZ VOUS LES AMIS ??

NEIGE DUPUIS NOVEMBRE http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?...ler=0&article=8

January Statistics BY BRETT ANDERSON ACCUWEATHER.COM http://global-warming.accuweather.com/

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/JB_Climate_Change.pdf BY JOE BASTARDI ACCUWEATHER.COM

2 storms on the menu by accuweather brett anderson.... A fairly weak storm system will track across Lake Huron early Tuesday then reach the state of Maine by Tuesday evening. Most of the precipitation associated with the storm will be out ahead of the storm center, as milder air is lifted up and over the colder air below, which results in a rising column of air that condenses and falls as snow. At this point, I am not expecting any major accumulations out of this as you can tell by the snowfall map. Actually, snow will likely change to a period of sleet and freezing rain before it tapers off Tuesday morning around Ottawa, Ontario. You can expect a similar changeover by Tuesday afternoon around Montreal and then into southern New Brunswick and much of Nova Scotia Tuesday evening, though coastal sections will just change to plain rain. A second, stronger storm for midweek A second storm system will ride up along a boundary dividing warm air to the south from seasonably cold air to the north Tuesday and Wednesday. Ontario and Quebec will remain on the cold side of this front during the period and that will result in some wet snow or rain changing to wet snow from across the southern half of Ontario Tuesday night and through Wednesday then into extreme southern Quebec Wednesday and Wednesday night. By the way, the storm will be slowly weakening as it tracks into the Northeast U.S. Here are some initial snowfall predictions......... Windsor, Ont.....Rain changing to wet snow Wednesday afternoon and ending Wednesday evening....1-3 cm. London, Ont....Rain changing to wet snow Wednesday morning then ending Wednesday evening......3-6 cm. St. Catharines, Ont.....Rain changing to wet snow by early Wednesday afternoon then ending Wednesday evening.......2-4 cm. Hamilton, Ont....Rain changing to wet snow Wednesday morning then ending Wednesday evening.....3-6 cm. Toronto/Kitchener, Ont.....Rain changing to snow before dawn Wednesday. Snow into Wednesday evening.......6-8 cm. Owen Sound, Ont.....Snow Wednesday and Wednesday evening......10-17 cm Barrie, Ont......Snow Wednesday and Wednesday evening.......8-13 cm Parry Sound, Ont.......Snow Wednesday and Wednesday evening....8-13 cm North Bay, Ont....Snow Wednesday, mostly light.......4-9 cm Peterborough, Ont....Snow Wednesday and Wednesday evening.....5-9 cm Kingston, Ont.....Wet snow Wednesday and Wednesday evening........3-6 cm Ottawa, Ont......Light snow Wednesday and Wednesday evening.......5-8 cm Montreal, Que......Light snow Wednesday and Wednesday evening...4-6 cm Cornwall, Ont......Light snow Wednesday and Wednesday evening.....5-8 cm

Near-Record Warmth Monday Feb 4 2008. Southwesterly winds will spread unseasonably warm air through Texas and into Oklahoma and Arkansas during the day Monday. Afternoon temperatures could reach the lower 80s as far north as Dallas, Texas and even set some records. accuweather.com

by brett anderson accuweather... My February Forecast Sunday, February 03, 2008 Here are my thoughts about February across Canada Newfoundland: Overall, February looks stormy. Temperatures early in the month will be slightly above normal then back to normal mid-month. Temperatures late in the month might end up colder compared to normal. In terms of precipitation, I expect a snowy month across central and northern Newfoundland, while the far south might have to deal with several storms that bring snow and perhaps some rain. As it turns colder late in the month it should begin to dry out some. Nova Scotia/PEI: February will be an unsettled month overall, with several storm systems moving in from the southwest. In terms of snowfall, I expect slightly above-normal amounts, since there will be a few storms that bring more of a mix/rain compared to snow. The end of the month might turn drier. In terms of temperature, I expect slightly warmer than normal temperatures early in the month, then near-normal readings mid-month. It might turn colder than normal late in the month. New Brunswick: Early February will be mild compared to normal, then trend back to normal mid-month. Much colder weather could return late in the month. Much of early and mid-February will bring above-normal precipitation, with above-normal snowfall, especially the northern two-thirds. Drier conditions should return late in the month. Quebec: The first half of the month will bring above-normal snowfall as a series of storm systems track close by, but temperatures across the south will be slightly milder than normal, while the north is seasonably cold. More of a northwesterly flow of air will return the second half of the month, leading to colder and drier weather. Ontario: Precipitation across southern Ontario will be greater than normal the first half of the month, with near-normal amounts of snow. Snowfall across northern Ontario the first half of the month will be slightly less than normal. The second half of the month should gradually turn drier. In terms of temperature, The first half of the month will be milder than normal across the south and near-normal in the north. Temperatures will be close to normal throughout much of the province the second half of the month. Manitoba: Snowfall will be close to normal across the south the first half of the month and below-normal in the north. Snowfall will be below normal throughout much of the province the second half of the month. In terms of temperature, the north will be colder than normal the first half of the month then trend back to normal, if not slightly above the second part of the month. Temperatures across the south will greatly fluctuate between very cold and normal the first half of the month, while the second half of the month will be more consistent and not be as cold. Saskatchewan:: The first two weeks of the month will be colder than normal with above-normal snowfall as a series of fast-moving systems move through. The north will be especially cold. Temperatures will trend back to normal the third week of the month and perhaps slightly above-normal late. Snowfall should be close to normal the second half of the month across the province. Alberta:: Expect large temperature fluctuations the first half of the month with short periods of very cold weather followed by a quick, but brief warm up. Temperatures the second half of the month will trend slightly above-normal across the south, near-normal in the mountains and slightly colder than normal in the north. I think for the most part, snowfall the first two weeks of the month will be greater than normal, then slightly less than normal last two weeks. The mountains should see above-normal snowfall throughout much of the month. British Columbia: The first half of the month will be rather stormy across western British Columbia with a series of Pacific fronts impacting the region, meaning plenty of coastal rain (the exception being the eastern downslope areas of Vancouver Island) and mountain snow, which keeps the good news flowing for the ski areas. Temperatures across the south the first half of the month will be near to slightly above normal, while the north will be colder than normal. The second half of the month will bring slightly above-normal temperatures to much of the province. In terms of precipitation, not as stormy across the southwest, but stormy, with plenty of snow in the north. Short term briefly I will be talking about a few storms this week. We have the potential for accumulating snow from central and eastern Ontario through Quebec, northern New Brunswick and interior Newfoundland Wednesday and Wednesday night. A couple of storms could also bring accumulating snow from the Canadian Rockies through the western prairies this week, especially in a line from north of Red Deer, AB to Saskatoon, Sask. Also, A storm will bring a small accumulation of snow to the Sudbury/North Bay, Ontario region Monday night, followed by some sleet and freezing rain.

historiqe du 4 février 1996 Calgary's cold weather sprouted a bumber crop of potholes.about 1200 residents of neighbourhoods near the bow and elbow rivers recived city notices to turn on water taps around the clock. the cold had penetrated up t 3 m into gravel subsoil. 1916 The centre block of the parliament buildings was an ice-encrusted ruin by fire.firefighters coats were frozen stiff and soldiers uniforms were white with frozen spray in -13c temperatures. 1990 mild weather with near freezing temperatures boosted attendance at quebecs city's winter carnival but in ottawa the rare february thaw forced the cancellation of some outdoor events of the winterlude festival. 1646 in Virginia ships were frozen for 6 weeks starting Feb 4 and duplicated 140 years later in 1780 and 1784 when again Chesapeake Bay congealed solidly twice at a similar 4 year interval. sources: Tomas Glover inhabitants of royal majesty ship lines. David Phillips canadian trivia calendar. 1991 1996 and 1997 editions.

On this day Feb 3 1776 Wind W. excessively cold. The weather almost unendurable by reason of the cold. Col. Arnolds Journal of his expedition to Canada. The region he is talking about is between Portage and Quebec city taking the route of the river la Chaudiere.

accuweather pour le 1 FEV 2008. Storm Snowfall Prediction Wednesday, January 30, 2008 Eastern Canada snowstorm still in the works starting Thursday night and Friday The storm we are talking about will begin to intensify Wednesday evening over the Texas Panhandle. As the storm moves eastward into southern Arkansas Thursday it will begin to tap into rich, Gulf moisture which will lead to an expanding area of precipitation around the storm. The storm center will then pass through Kentucky Thursday night before reaching northern Ohio Friday afternoon. This initial storm will then begin to feel the effects of some blocking over northeastern Canada Friday afternoon and the storm will slow down and transfer some of its energy farther to the east, leading to a secondary storm development over eastern Pennsylvania later Friday afternoon. This process will also cut off any attempt of warming getting into areas north of Hamilton, Ontario. The secondary storm will then take over Friday evening and track up across the state of Maine Friday overnight. The storm center should pass very close to Prince Edward Island Saturday afternoon and then over central Newfoundland Saturday evening. With this type of track, it appears that the heaviest snow will track up across portions of eastern Ontario and southern Quebec. Areas just north and west of a line from Toronto to Ottawa and Montreal should see a pretty good snowstorm out of this. Here is an update of my forecast for selected cities..... Windsor, Ont....12-20 cm of snow Thursday night and Friday London, Ont.....15-22 cm Hamilton, Ont......14-20 cm (a little sleet possible) St. Catharines, Ont......10-17 cm (some sleet or freezing rain possible) Toronto, Ont....15-25 cm Barrie, Ont....18-27 cm Owen Sound, Ont....10-18 cm Bracebridge, Ont.....12-20 cm North Bay, Ont.......8-12 cm Sudbury, Ont.....4-8 cm Peterborough, Ont...14-22 cm Kingston, Ont.....12-22 cm (possible sleet briefly) Friday Ottawa, Ont.......20-30 cm Friday and Friday night (areas just north 25-35 cm) Cornwall, Ont....12-22 cm (a little sleet possible Friday evening) Montreal, Que.....15-30 cm (a little sleet possible Friday evening) (areas just north 20-35 cm) Quebec City, Que.....20-35 cm Sherbrooke, Que.....7-12 cm of snow then sleet and ice likely Friday night) Edmundston, NB.....12-22 cm Friday and Friday evening then a chance of sleet later Friday night. Fredericton, NB....4-7 cm snow Friday evening then ice Friday night Moncton, NB......3-6 cm then ice and rain by Friday night Saint John, NB.... tr-3 cm of snow Friday evening then a little ice followed by rain. Updated: 1/30/2008 12:42 PM

NEXT STORM TOTALS FEB 1 2008. Next storm on the way Confidence is now high for a potent storm to track northeastward toward eastern Canada late Thursday night and through Friday. A storm will rapidly intensify over the lower Mississippi Valley Thursday. The storm will then track up toward the northeast Thursday night, with the center reaching southern Ohio or eastern Kentucky Friday morning. The storm will then shift up into upstate New York Friday evening and then northern Maine by Saturday morning. Unlike this past storm, there will be a fresher supply of cold air in the way of this storm, so I am convinced this one could cause a lot of travel headaches from parts of Ontario through New Brunswick. There will also be a push of milder air coming in aloft on the northeast side of the storm during Friday, so there is the potential for some mixed precipitation over southern portions of Ontario, Quebec and interior New Brunswick on Friday. Some initial accumulation estimates.......I will narrow them up and include more locations Wednesday and Thursday as we get closer to the event. Windsor, Ont....10-20 cm of snow Thursday night and Friday London, Ont.....12-25 cm Hamilton, Ont......8-16 cm (possible mix) Toronto, Ont....10-18 cm (possible mix) Barrie, Ont....12-25 cm North Bay, Ont.......7-12 cm Sudbury, Ont.....4-8 cm Peterborough, Ont...12-22 cm Kingston, Ont.....12-22 cm (possible mix) Ottawa, Ont.......15-30 cm Friday and Friday night Cornwall, Ont....12-25 cm Montreal, Que.....15-30 cm Quebec City, Que.....15-30 cm Sherbrooke, Que.....10-18 cm (possible mix) Edmundston, NB.....15-25 cm Fredericton, NB....4-7 cm then ice Friday evening Moncton, NB......3-6 cm then ice and rain by Friday night Saint John, NB....2-4 cm of snow Friday evening then a little ice followed by rain. Updated: 1/29/2008 6:31 PM (ACCUWEATHER...BRETT ANDERSON)

dans le Ouest Canadien encore des records de froids These are new record low temperatures set Tuesday morning JAN 29 2008. Edmonton.......-44.4 c!!!!! (-48 F) Fort Mcmurray.....-43.2 c (-46 F) Grande Prairie.....-43.7 c (-47 F) Lethbridge.....-37.9 c (-36 F) Peace River.....-44.7 c (-48 F) Slave Lake......-42.2 c (-44 F) Edson........-43.3 c (-46 F)

Jour le plus froid jamais enregistré à Windsor: -35,5 degrés Celsius 27 Jan , 1784. 1873 Jour le plus froid jamais enregistré à Windsor: -32,8 degrés Celsius oui cest vrai mais celle du 27 jan 1784 cest plus froid encore :P

el nino power !! (Jan. 28, 2008) The next time you have to raise your umbrella against torrents of cold winter rain, you may have a remote weather phenomenon to thank that many may know by name as El Nino, but may not well understand. Researchers now believe that some of the most intense winter storm activity over parts of the United States may be set in motion from changes in the surface waters of far-flung parts of the Pacific Ocean. Siegfried Schubert of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md., and his colleagues studied the impact that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events have on the most intense U.S. winter storms. An ENSO episode typically consists of an El Niño phase followed by a La Niña phase. During the El Niño phase, eastern Pacific temperatures near the equator are warmer than normal, while during the La Niña phase the same waters are colder than normal. These fluctuations in Pacific Ocean temperatures are accompanied with fluctuations in air pressure known as the Southern Oscillation. ENSO is a coupled ocean-atmosphere effect that has a sweeping influence on weather around the world. Scientists found that during El Niño winters, the position of the jet stream is altered from its normal position and, in the U.S., storm activity tends to be more intense in several regions: the West Coast, Gulf States and the Southeast. They estimate, for example, that certain particularly intense Gulf Coast storms that occur, on average, only once every 20 years would occur in half that time under long-lasting El Niño conditions. In contrast, under long-lasting La Nina conditions, the same storms would occur on average only about once in 30 years. A related study was published this month in the American Meteorological Society's Journal of Climate. The scientists examined daily records of snow and rainfall events over 49 U.S. winters, from 1949-1997, together with results from computer model simulations. According to Schubert, the distant temperature fluctuations in Pacific Ocean surface waters near the equator are likely responsible for many of the year-to-year changes in the occurrence of the most intense wintertime storms. "By studying the history of individual storms, we've made connections between changes in precipitation in the U.S. and ENSO events in the Pacific," said Schubert, a meteorologist and lead author of the study. "We can say that there is an increase in the probability that a severe winter storm will affect regions of the U.S. if there is an El Niño event." "Looking at the link between large-scale changes in climate and severe weather systems is an emerging area in climate research that affects people and resources all over the world," said Schubert. "Researchers in the past have tended to look at changes in local rainfall and snow statistics and not make the connections to related changes in the broader storm systems and the links to far away sources. We found that our models are now able to mimic the changes in the storms that occurred over the last half century. That can help us understand the reasons for those changes, as well as improve our estimates of the likelihood that stronger storms will occur." El Niño events, which tend to climax during northern hemisphere winters, are a prime example of how the ocean and atmosphere combine to affect climate and weather, according to Schubert. During an El Niño, warm waters from the western Pacific move into the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, spurred by changes in the surface wind and in the ocean currents. The higher sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific increase rainfall there, which alters the positions of the jet streams in both the northern and southern hemispheres. That in turn affects weather in the U.S. and around the world. Scientists have known about El Niño weather fluctuations over a large portion of the world since the early 1950s. They occur in cycles every three to seven years, changing rain patterns that can trigger flooding as well as drought. Schubert cautions against directly linking a particular heavy storm event to El Niño with absolute certainty. "This study is really about the causes for the changes in probability that you'll have stronger storms, not about the causes of individual storms," he said. For that matter, Schubert also discourages linking a particularly intense storm to global warming with complete certainty. "Our study shows that when tropical ocean surface temperature data is factored in, our models now allow us to estimate the likelihood of intense winter storms much better than we can from the limited records of atmospheric observations alone, especially when studying the most intense weather events such as those associated with ENSO," said Schubert. "But, improved predictions of the probability of intense U.S. winter storms will first require that we produce more reliable ENSO forecasts." NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office is, in fact, doing just that by developing both an improved coupled ocean-atmosphere-land model and comprehensive data, combining space-based and in situ measurements of the atmosphere, ocean and land, necessary to improve short term climate predictions.

En Chine !! Snow storm brings China to a halt January 28 2008 15:19 China's transport and energy systems have been caught in a perfect winter storm, with hundreds of thousands of people stranded during the peak travel season after train delays caused by heavy snow and power failures. The power crisis, the worst in China for many years, has been caused by an acute shortage of the supply of coal, the country's staple fuel. The problem has been amplified by unseasonally large snowfalls in northern and central China

En cette date 1805 du 26 aux 28 Janvier. THE FORTY -EIGHT -HOUR- SNOW AT NEW YORK CITY. New York's longtime weaterman Henry Laight described the storm scene in his notes: jan.26,1805-- It began to snow in the eveing of this day and continued until the eveing of the 28th without interruption--48 hours. So much snow has not fallen at one time for a great number of years. Pine St, Cedar St, Liberty St.and many narrow streets are altogether impassable for the sleighs on account of the great depth of the snow.The snow must be at least 3 feet deep. H.Laight. Ms.Met. Obs... (N.Y. Hist. Soc.)

As i stated in my last entry on the coldest day in Windsor Ontario like i said more research would be done well ive found one date to be colder then the last one of 1859 Jan 10 the low of - 30.0c. Well in 1784 La Côte de Misère (Poverty Coast) later named Windsor Ontario in the 1850s. A record low of -32f or -35.5c was set on Jan 27 1784. The temperature was taken by (George C. Anthon) (m.d.) A meteorological journal kept at Upper Canada territory from Aug. 1781 to May 1786 inclusive..it was truly a outstanding winter for the lower great lakes area.This is what the log said on that record cold day that still stands today.(0700) -32f (1200) -28f (2000) -24f (excessive cold.serene weather). I will point out that the winter of 1740-41 was also another severe winter in the area mentioned above and further research will be done to see if it surpasses the severe winter of 1784. In the near future i will be posting a classification of winters in order from the VERY SEVERE to SEVERE in the 1700s then 1800s and 1900s. Then i will class the all time winters in order of severity.

South Pole Station, Antarctica semaine du 12 aux 18 jan 2008. Temperature: Average temp... -26.0°C / -14.8°F Maximum temp... -21.0°C / -5.8°F on day 17 Minimum temp... -29.1°C / -20.4°F on day 18 Wind: Average wind speed.......... 10.4 mph or 9.0 knots Prevailing wind direction... Grid North Maximum wind speed.......... 26 mph or 23 knots on day 13 Maximum wind direction...... Grid North Average vectored wind....... 348 degrees at 3.8 knots

Observations were made in North America as early as 1604. Ive been collecting almancs, books, diaries of early observations made in North America.The observation made on that record day in Winsdor was by a observer of course.Its very easy to click on your internet key board and access the Canadian Climate Data and find your answer but records go back in time like i said till 1604 which i have and took me 25 years and still today im researching this wonderful hobby which i love..Just a quick note on that day Toronto also set the record for January but further research could be done to see what is the all time record for Toronto and Windsor for January.Also the all time record that i have in my research for Montreal for JANUARY (Isle Jesus Observatory) at 6 am documented by Prof.Charles Smallwoods is -43.6 f or -42c. This cold arctic airmass in 1859 Jan 10 was by far the most brutal in terms of cold in the area.You could also go by the present recod for Windsor of -29.1 set in 1994 which is fine.But since records go back even further why not use them since they were made by observers just like you and me. Im sorry if i cannot write this in french but i speak french very well. Merci !!

En cette date 21 Janvier 1812 a Montreal la temperature chute a -33c .

correction !! Le record de froid absolu pour Windsor est de -30.0C le 10 janvier 1859... et non -29.1C en 1994.

En cette date 20 Janvier 1805 Montreal a recu 30 cm de neige avec des temperatures de - 20c et -30c .

2. The double-barreled storm system moving up toward eastern Canada later Thursday and then into Friday will not be a major storm, as the two systems (one moving over the Grate Lakes and the other moving up along the East Coast) will be competing for energy, but they will have a fair amount of moisture to work with. This will also be a fairly mild storm from southwestern Ontario through the Maritimes as the cold air out ahead of the storms will be quickly exiting, so we are looking at a wet snow over southwestern Ontario and mostly rain later Friday over Nova Scotia and PEI with the winds shifting into the southeast. 3. Behind this mess comes the Arctic cold front into southern Ontario Saturday. Behind the front some of the coldest air of the season will be coming down directly from the polar regions. There could be some decent lake-effect snow in the typical snow belt areas between Owen Sound and London, Ontario later Saturday and into Sunday, with much less off of Georgian Bay. 4. Sunday is going to be bitterly cold across all of eastern Canada, and with the wind staying up it is going to be nasty! The worst of the cold moves into Atlantic Canada Monday and Tuesday. alors je mise entre 8 cm et 12 cm avec ce type the mini tempete.

http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20080103/94768732.html

A Cold Spell is coming, says Russian Scientist Dr. Oleg Sorokhtin, a Merited Scientist of Russia and fellow of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences says that Earth is now at the peak of one of its passing warm spells, which according to him, is a natural process and utterly independent of hothouse gases. According to Sorokhtin's article from the Russian News and Information Agency, data obtained from Habibullah Abdusamatov, who is the head of the Pulkovo Observatory space research laboratory, shows that a fairly cold spell will set in quite soon, by 2012, but real cold will come when solar activity reaches its minimum, by 2041, and will last for 50-60 years or longer. Sorokhtin also notes..... Carbon dioxide is not to blame for global climate change. Solar activity is many times more powerful than the energy produced by the whole of humankind. Manâs influence on nature is a drop in the ocean. Earth is unlikely to ever face a temperature disaster. The principal is Earthâs reflective power, which regulates its temperature. A warm period, as the present, increases oceanic evaporation to produce a great amount of clouds, which filter solar radiation and so bring heat down. Things take the contrary turn in a cold period. alors quel que chose a penser ???