iceberg

AND THIS IS FOR MONTREAL AND WEST AND LOWER AMOUNTS SOUTH EAST OF MONTREAL .

more snow !!! im thinking more snow will fall as the cold front stalls near the american border as the new storm forms so im giving 20 to 28 cm depending on the track...

stormy pattern Sunday, March 02, 2008 I see that parts of northern New Brunswick have had over 25 cm of snow as of Sunday morning and it was still snowing hard in some areas as of midday Sunday. There was a report of 48 cm of snow on the Gaspe Peninsula. Across Nova Scotia, snowfall amounts ranged from a trace to 15 cm. The storm produced a wind gust to 139 km/h (86 mph) at Grand Etang, Nova Scotia. On to the next storm Real tough forecast coming up with the next storm system that will impact parts of eastern and Atlantic Canada during the Monday night through Wednesday night time period. A cold front arriving from the northwest will play a key role in the changeover from rain to ice or snow from southern Ontario through southern Quebec Monday night. That front will then stall out across the Northeastern U.S. Tuesday as a storm moves up from the southeast along the front. Computer models are fairly close with the eventual track of the storm, but the small differences are enough to make a major difference in the forecast for parts of southern/eastern Ontario. Also, the models have trended weaker with this storm, and if that trend continues then the storm set to impact the same region Thursday and Thursday night will end up being stronger. I outlined in the map below the region that I think will see the heaviest accumulations of snow from this storm. The rain/snow mix area for southwestern Ontario accounts for the intial rain with the front and the uncertainty of the eventual track of the actual storm. Keep in mind, this is just my initial idea and I am sure there will be adjustments to this through Monday. Based on all this here are some preliminary ideas for specific sites......Confidence in these numbers is still low at this point. Windsor, Ont...A mix of sleet/snow Mon. night with the front then snow late Tuesday and Tuesday night......5-10 cm London, Ont.....Rain changing to snow/sleet later Monday night. Periods of snow Tuesday night....4-8 cm Sarnia, Ont....A bit of snow Monday, then periods of snow Tue. aft/night......5-10 cm St. Catharines, Ont.....Rain changing to sleet/snow later Monday night. Steadier snow later Tue/Tue night.....6-12 cm Toronto, Ont.....A brief period of snow or sleet later Monday night, then steadier snow Tuesday night...6-12 cm Barrie, Ont......A bit of snow Monday night, mostly light snow Tuesday night.....3-6 cm Peterborough, Ont......Rain changing to a little snow later Monday night...Snow Tuesday night....6-12 cm Kingston, Ont...A little snow or sleet late Monday night then steadier snow Tuesday night into early Wednesday....8-15 cm Ottawa, Ont....A period of snow Monday night......Steady snow late Tuesday night into early Wednesday....10-18 cm Montreal, Que....A period of snow late Monday night.... Steadier snow late Tuesday night into Wed....10-20 cm. Cornwall, Ont....A period of snow/sleet late Monday night. Snow late Tuesday night into Wed.....10-18 cm. Sherbrooke, Que...A period of snow/sleet late Monday night. Snow late Tuesday night into Wed.....15-25 cm. Quebec City, Que.....A little snow Monday night with the front then heavier snow Wednesday...15-25 cm Mont Joli, Que.....Light snow late Monday night and early Tuesday....Heavier snow Wed/Wed eve.....12-22 cm Edmundston, NB......Light snow Monday night then heavier snow Wed.........15-25 cm Fredericton, NB........A little snow Tuesday morning....Snow to sleet to freezing rain Wednesday, big mess! Snow/sleet.....4-8 cm Saint John, NB....Sleet/freezing rain Wednesday changing to rain by Wednesday evening. Most of Nova Scotia and PEI will see a situation of snow quickly going over to sleet/ice then plain rain on Wednesday.... As I said in the above paragraph, there will likely be a second storm forming along the Arctic boundary Thursday which may bring moderate accumulations of snow to southern/central and eastern Ontario. Also, I will be tracking a classic Alberta clipper that may bring light accumulations of snow to most of the southern and central prairies Monday night and Tuesday as it tracks southeastward. A two day outbreak of bitter cold will follow the clipper into the eastern prairies during the middle of next week. accuweather.com

CLIMATE (550-500 B.C.): During the first 30 years of this period we are in the warm phase of the 100-year cycle, but in this instance the cycle had shortened to 70 years. Notice how the latter part of the warm period was considerably drier than the former part. The drop in temperature and rainfall between 540 and 535 is typical in that it breaks the warm period into two parts. HISTORY (550-500 B.C.): Notice particularly, however, how uniformly red are the entries for the main events of the warm period and how quickly the pattern shifts as it turned cold between 520 and 515. While at the opening of the warm period strong government~ revived, and while there was a revival of learning, this is not a major Golden Age period. Golden Age periods, with their conspicuously good leadership and great outcropping of geniuses, occur on the average of about every 200 years. Remember that this is near the opening of a 500-year cycle. Consequently, we can expect profound events to be occurring, and they are. This period is famous for its origin of rational thought in the history of human intelligence. It was a small beginning, but a profound one. The human mind is rising out of semi-barbarism. Here occurred the crude beginnings of science and philosophy. Most of the early philosophers we know about only indirectly or through fragments of their writings. Their views were a mixture of rational thinking and superstition, but it was an important beginning. All of their names, which would mean little to the general reader, have not been included. Among them was Pythagoras, who founded a famous school of thought. The fact that Buddha and Confucius flourished at this time indicates that the awakening was not confined to the region of the Meditertanean. The great revolution that crowded the sixth century with important events will reach a climax during the early part of the next century. It was one of the great dynamic periods of history and the Golden Age of Greece. Note the increase of despotism and atrocities, typical warm-dry events, during the last half of the warm period. While the period between 550 and 520 B.C. is known as the Age of Tyrants, such a statement is misleading because tyrants emerge universally during warm periods in history, especially during the warm-dry phases of the cycle. This does not mean that there are no tyrants during cold times, but it does mean that during the latter parts of the warm periods they fit into the total pattern. Frequently they are deliberately sought, even by the people at such times; while during cold times they do not fit into the total pattern, and efforts, generally successful sooner or later, are made by the people to oust them from office. Notice the migrations toward the end of this period. The Gauls, Teutons, and Celts were western European, north of the Mediterranean; and the Slavs and Scythians were in western Asia. There were almost surely other migrations than those that were recorded. The Scythians were Monngoloid peoples like the Tartars who will be heard from many times. The Slavs were ancestors of the present Slavs. PART 2 OF 30

COULD THIS CYCLE "GLOBAL WARMING" FINALLY BE WINDING DOWN? No one argues that our weather has been very EXTREME over the last few decades, especially during the past several years. Most scientists believe that our global climate is changing, but is our weather being altered by Mankind's influence, or is it merely a part of a long-term climatological cycle? According to our long-term charts, which date back to 600 B.C., there are numerous climatological cycles that influence our weather and other global events including global and national economies. For example, during "Warm-Wet" cycles, like those in the 1920s and the 1990s, we often saw above average global temperatures and precipitation. This situation often leads to bumper crops and very good worldwide economic conditions. However, when temperatures are warmer than average and precipitation falls to below normal levels, less favorable times, or even depression eras like those of the 1930s and the past several years are more likely. Cooler and drier phases often point to "calm" periods like the 1950s and early 1960s. Cycles that become too hot and dry or too cold and dry will often lead to very unfavorable periods, such as the one expected later century, near 2038. Only time will tell. For many years, following widespread ICE AGE predictions back in the 1970s, we've heard that our planet is warming up "at an alarming rate". A study from the National Academy of Science claims that "global warming is real and has been strengthening since 1981." These scientists say that the leading cause of this latest warming is the increasing emissions of greenhouse gases and carbon dioxide. They also state that by the year 2100, temperatures may increase by 2.5 degrees to as much as 10.4 degrees Fahrenheit above those of today. Up until late 2002, much of the Northern Hemisphere north of Latitude 40 was actually becoming GREENER with less total ice. In fact, the average growing season had been extended by around 2 weeks based on satellite data at the time. BUT, now, we believe that temperatures are beginning to cool again, particularly in north- central Canada where this summer there was only about 2 weeks between damaging freezes from late June into mid-July. One of our Harris-Mann Climatology clients went fishing between July 10-13 in northwestern Saskatchewan and reported "piles of ice" still on the ground in the region and temperatures close to the freezing mark. Although the recent summers of the early 21st Century have been amongst the hottest and driest on record across most of the U.S., the winter seasons, by extreme contrast, have been some of the coldest in recorded history. For example, Siberia in Russia reported readings of -70 degrees in January of 2001. Even if our planet is warming up as many scientists claim, we're still much cooler today than we were four to eight-thousand years ago. In fact, there were probably no mid-latitude glaciers about 800 million years ago, because the Earth's climate was so mild at the time. Temperatures today are primarily measured over concrete surfaces compared to grassy ones years ago. We all know that concrete and asphalt absorb heat and this often results in higher afternoon temperatures, especially when we have conditions of very little wind. During a typical hot, summer day, high temperatures may be as much as 3-7 degrees warmer at the official airport or downtown locations compared to outlying rural areas. A comprehensive climatological study of over 600 cities both in North America and around the rest of the world, which I finally completed in mid-2001, compared the average (mean) temperatures in Fahrenheit for the six decades from 1880 through 1940 and the following 60-year period ending December 31, 2000. Needless-to-say, I was a bit surprised to discover that this planet overall had only warmed up a mere .7 of one degree Fahrenheit on a global scale from 1941 through the balance of the 20th Century. In fact, if one removed the 15 largest cities, the "concrete and asphalt jungles", from the study, Mother Earth would have actually COOLED OFF about .4 of one degree Fahrenheit in the last six decades. Tokyo, Mexico City, Sao Paulo, Mumbai (Bombay), Seoul, Beijing, Osaka, Rio and Delhi each warmed up by more than a full degree Fahrenheit between 1941 and 2001. In the U.S., only Los Angeles, Phoenix, Dallas, St. Louis, Oklahoma City, Mobile, Alabama, Houston, Salt Lake City, San Jose and Sacramento warmed by a degree or more Fahrenheit during the same 60-year time span. Even New York City, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Boston, Washington, D.C. and Miami along the Atlantic Coastline only warmed up slightly, despite the so-called "heat island" effects. There were dozens of cities, mostly with populations under 300,000 people, that actually turned COOLER during the balance of the 20th Century. These cities included; Billings, Montana, Bismarck, North Dakota, Boise, Idaho, Fargo, North Dakota, Fairbanks, Alaska, Seattle, Washington, Spokane, Washington and Coeur d'Alene, Idaho which cooled by .4 of one degree Fahrenheit from 1941 to 2001. As previously mentioned, temperatures today are primarily observed over concrete or asphalt surfaces, rather than those "grassy knolls" of years past. We all know that concrete and asphalt absorb heat and this often results in higher afternoon temperatures, especially when we have conditions of very little wind. During a typical hot, summer day, high temperatures may be as much as 3-7 degrees warmer at the official airport or downtown locations compared to outlying areas. Robert Felix, author of "Not By Fire, But By Ice" discusses the possibility of an upcoming ICE AGE within the next 20-30 years. He claims, and has the data to prove it, that many glaciers are expanding worldwide, some as much as 18 feet per year and that sea levels have "dropped" slightly since the early 1990s. According to Felix, major ice ages occur about every 11,500 years with the last one occurring nearly 12,000 years ago, so we're supposedly overdue for a BIG COOLING TREND, which may have already begin as Greenland's and Antarctica's ice sheets are thickening at a rapid pace. Our climate would also cool very quickly if we were to see a series of MAJOR volcanic eruptions take place over a short period of time. Since the early 1990s, there has been an overall significant increase in volcanic activity in the Philippines, Japan, Indonesia, El Salvador, Tanzania, Mexico, Columbia, Italy, Alaska and our Pacific Northwest. Since the late 1990s, we've likewise seen a dramatic increase in undersea volcanic eruptions, especially in the western Pacific Ocean regions. Global temperatures cooled rather dramatically following the massive Mt. Pinatubo eruption in June of 1991 in the Philippines. Nearly 200 years before, there was an even more dramatic global cooling associated with the eruption of Mt. Tambora in 1815, which put an incredible EIGHT TIMES more volcanic material into the upper atmosphere than the recent strong eruption of Mt. Pinatubo. The following year, 1816, is still being referred to by New England's historians as "Eighteen-Hundred and Froze to Death". Snow fell every month that year at the higher elevations in the interior Northeast while freezes blackened crops that summer in the valleys from northern New England and southeastern Canada all the way south into the Carolinas. In the past few years, we've started to see a trend towards later frosts in the spring and earlier freezes in the fall seasons, despite the warmer than normal temperatures. Whether we continue to warm up or cool down still remains to be seen, but there's no doubt that we're in a long-term cycle of Wide Weather "EXTREMES". Stay tuned...

CLIMATE (600-550 B.C.): The climate of this period was mainly cold and dry. This is the cold-dry phase of the 100-year cycle. The centers of the cold-dry periods are conspicuous turning points in history. For the purpose of these charts, the long-time cycles are defined as beginning and ending at or near the centers of the cold-dry phases. The last cold phase of the 500-year cycle is always a very important time in history, so it is convenient to define the 500-year cycle as running from the center of one cold-dry phase to the center of the fifth one following. There is another reason which supports this procedure. Every fifth cold phase is usually a more severe one, located in the center of a period of time during which climate has deteriorated--has become increasingly drier and colder. The termination of the 5000year cycle marks a turning point in the favorableness of climate. HISTORY (600-550 B.C.): Civilizations radically change at the end of each 500-year cycle, but more especially at the end of the 1,000-year cycle. This period in history marks the end of an epoch in the Ancient World. The powerful and, in a way, brilliant empires of Egypt, Mesopotamia, Crete, and finally Assyria--all of them around the Mediterranean or between it and the Persian Gulf--had run their course. All of them were now in a state of decline and disruption. No strong, healthy states existed anywhere, as far as we know. The world was in one of its H dark ages." There was much wandering of peoples from one region to another. Among these wandering peoples were the Medes and the Persians, who were Indo-Europeans or Caucasians like ourselves. Nineveh, the old capital of the Assyrians, fell to the Medes in 612 B.C. Between them, these wandering hordes broke up the decadent Assyrian civilization. A Semitic people, the Chaldeans, also came upon the scene and made Babylon their capital. For the moment, they were the prominent people of the Western World, and Nebuchadnezzar was their king. But Nebuchadnezzar's rule was an unhappy one. A rebellious mood prevailed everywhere. As the pages of this history open, at 600 B.C., the western provinces of his empire were in revolt, especially the little kingdom of Judea. Jerusalem paid for its unwillingness to submit by being destroyed, and many of its people were carried off to Babylon as slaves. This happened in the second decade of the century. Greece, fortunately, had not been subjected to the Chaldean yoke, but all during the first half of the century, 600-550 B.C., she was having troubles of her own. This was a period of struggle between the underprivileged classes, especially the farmers and small merchants and the nobility. Coinage had just been substituted for the barter system in the economy of the Greek City States, but only the rich could secure the coins. The poor people had none. At the same time, the Greek people were quarreling among themselves over religious problems, and those who 'went on pilgrimages to the temples were oppressed. In Athens, during this time, a famous nobleman and poet, Solon, was greatly affected by the misery of the people and attempted to institute reforms. He wanted more democratic laws but, while he was successful in effecting many reforms, they did not go far enough. A few years later, in an effort to prevent dictators from assuming power again as they had done previously, the Greeks adopted the method of ostracism. An official who attempted to usurp too much power could be banished by the people. This was a democratic move. Democratic principles grew rapidly during this 50-year period. Sparta, one of the most important of the Greek City States, became a champion and protector of democratic principles and promoted reforms among the cities of the Greek peninsula. However, Sparta's government was socialistic compared with Athens. Simultaneously in Italy, the Romans and Etruscans--then hardly better than competing tribes--were quarreling and a legendary Roman king, Servius Tullius, was assassinated. Egypt, under a new and democratic ruler, Amasis II (Ahmose), became noted for its cosmopolitan spirit; foreign scholars and men of commerce were invited to go there and live. But Egypt, too, was in internal turmoil. The armies disagreed on a new leader and were having trouble with the Ethiopians to the south of them. In fact, Egypt was virtually in a state of political collapse. The king had little effective power. Bands of Celts were roaming over Italy at will. Carthage, near the present city of Tunis, was having serious difficulties with native tribes from the south. The Phoenician city of Cadiz on the southern shore of Spain was having similar trouble. The land and the sea were infested with pirates because there were no strong governments to keep them down. There is evidence that Polynesian races migrated eastward into the East Indies from the Asiatic mainland at about this time, and that wild Mongoloid tribes, the Ainu, moved into southern Japan from the north and northwest, disrupting the higher Japanese civilization. The Greeks were spreading out too, extending their colonies farther and farther afield. Waves of Teutons came out of Scandinavia. So, all over the known world, a certain pattern of conditions prevailed from 600-550 B.C. Governments were weak and crumbling; people were rebellious against their governments and quarreling among themselves; they were divided into hostile religious factions; strife prevailed between the rich and the poor--the ruling and the underprivileged classes. Restlessness was everywhere. Hordes were on th. march, migrating from one region to another; savages were raiding the centers of civilization, and pirates were raiding the commerce of the seas. There were no strong governments anywhere; there was a lack of unity and an absence of loyalty to states everywhere during this period. Keep this pattern in mind and what the climatic conditions were during this period. It was mostly cold and dry; that is, the great majority of the countries of the earth, especially in the Temperate Zones. were colder and drier than normal. We are in the cold phase of a world-wide climatic cycle, and in the dry part of that cold phase. The cycle of which this cold-dry phase is a part averages 100 years in length. There is one very important fact to remember about Greek history during this time. It is not only a fact, but a lesson which mankind has never adequately learned even after the passage of 2500 years of time. The Greek City States became prosperous and went through the most brilliant period of their history because there originated within their society a sufficiently large and powerful middle class which built up a private enterprise system. This event was part of an industrial revolution which was now under way and came to a climax later. Before 600 B.C., Greek colonists had spread up and down the Mediterranean and around the Black Sea. From the Black Sea they made contact with the grain areas along the lower Danube River, and with the iron mines along the southeastern coast of the sea. On the southern coast they had found a friendly people in the Egyptians and had established trading centers there. To the westward they had founded cities in Sicily. Syracuse became one of the most powerful and one of the richest cities of the Greek world. All of this led to a great increase of business and manufacturing in the home cities. A large market opened up for Greek wares. New kinds of ships were invented that enabled the Greeks to obtain control of the seas. Rugs were imported from the Orient; grain, fish, and amber from the north; bronzes from Italy. Athens became a great manufacturing center for pottery which was decorated very beautifully. Pottery was for Athens what the textile and woolen mills were for the United States. The date 600 B.C. was as important to Greek history as was the middle of the nineteenth century to our own history. It centered upon a period of rapid commercial growth. It is well to remember that both of these dates occurred in the middle of long, cold periods. Recall how in the mid-nineteenth century our clipper ships were sailing all over the world. With the dawn of the 500'5 B.C. it was evident that the character of the ancient World was radically changing. Time does not permit a detailed account of how the Ancient Egyptian, Babylonian, and Assyrian empires differed from the Greek and Roman civilizations. The older civilizations were preoccupied with religion, and everything was explained supernaturally. When religion did not preoccupy them military conquests did. The new 1000-year period was to be based on rational thought and naturalistic explanations. crude though they were. This meant that it would also be based on new inventions, new types economy. new ways of living, new forms of architecture and a new outlook on life. The old ways of thinking, the old religions. the old techniques of living, and the old political and economic patterns were now outmoded. In other words. the Greek and Roman civilizations came into being as a result of great revolutions and of a tremendous increase in the capacity of mankind to think. Another natural breaking point in history occurred 500 years later when t here took place another very profound revolution--the birth of the Christian Church. Five hundred years after that in fifth century, came another one of the major breaks or turning points in history that happens only once in a thousand years, namely, the fall of Rome and of all the other ancient civilizations as well. This century marked the end of ancient times and the beginning of Medieval history. The next turning point occurred in the tenth century with the emergence of Feudalism. The next took place in the 15th century at the end of another 1000 year period, when Medieval history ended and the Modern world began. Institutions and ways of thinking once more changed very drastically. Once more an old world died and a new one was born. At the present moment we stand face to face with one of the 500-year land marks of history, for a 500-year cycle is drawing to a close. Whether we like it or not. or realize it or not, a great social and moral revolution is under way, perhaps not quite but almost as profound as the revolution that ushered in the Greek world in the sixth century B.C. Suppose we look at a few of the striking parallels. (1) Just before the long cold period had begun. in the latter part of the seventh century B.C., the dominating people of the Near East were the Assyrians. They had passed through the second brilliant period of their history. While their last ruler. Ashurbanipal (668-626 B.C.). was a scholar and had collected a great library. the Assyrians' Empire was in the last stages of decline. During a nation-falling type of war in 612 B.C., the capital of the empire, Nineveh, fell to the Medes and the Chaldeans. The peoples of the entire 1 and rejoiced when they heard the glad tidings, for the Assyrians had been the "Nazis" of their day. (2) But the Chaldeans correspond to the Russians. They set up their capital in Babylonian and as overlords were hardly an improvement over the -Nazi" Assyrians. Nebuchadnezzar, who reigned from 604 561 B.C., carried off many Hebrews from Palestine to Jerusalem as captives, just as the Russians are doing now with the Czecholsovakians and other peoples of Central Europe. (3) The flare -up of the Chaldeans, although dramatic, was brief. They in turn gave way to the Persians, who were democratic and benevolent in their treatment of the native tribes. We can expect the present Russian control of her many satellite states to be brief. Before long, democracy will win out in the entire area of Central Europe. (4) There was a great effort on the part of the underprivileged classes of the 500's B.C. to free themselves and to secure an opportunity to participate in government. The farmer constituted one of the underprivileged groups, but historically of greater importance was the new business class. or middle class, who were now beneficiaries of the budding industrial revolution. These men had became prosperous in business and trade and were now demanding a share in the government of the land, JUST AS LABOR TODAY IS DEMANDING A GREATER SHARE IN THE GOVERNMENTS OF THE WORLD. AND IN THE MANAGEMENT OF BUSINESS IN THIS COUNTRY. PART 1 OF 30.. I WILL BE LOOKING AT PAST CLIMATES RIGHT UP TILL TODAYS.. FROM THE HISTORICAL WEATHER FOUNDATION BOOKS..

MARCH UPDATE LONG RANGE FORCAST FOR CANADA AND USA.... Long Range Update through March Friday, February 29, 2008 This is my interpretation of the latest European long range model forecast for North America that goes through the end of March. This product is updated every Friday and is only available for our own in house use, but there is nothing wrong with me telling you what it shows. The week of March 10-16 The model shows a large trough (pocket of cold air aloft) in the means across eastern North America, while it has a strong ridge (pocket of warm/dry air aloft along the U.S. West coast. --A very cold pattern by March standards across eastern Canada (eastern Manitoba through Quebec). --Unseasonably cold throughout much of the eastern U.S. --Drier than normal pattern across southwestern BC. --Above-normal temperatures across much of western Canada, --Slightly drier than normal over the western Prairies. --Stormy pattern for the Maritimes. The week of March 17-23 --Colder weather returns to much of western Canada, including the western prairies. --Wetter pattern returns to western BC. --Still colder than normal from the eastern Prairies through Ontario and Quebec. --Drier and slightly milder than normal pattern for Newfoundland. The week of March 24-30 --Unseasonably cold from the Great Lakes region into the eastern U.S. --Chilly, damp pattern for the Southeast U.S. --Above-normal precipitation for the Northeast U.S. and the coastal Maritimes. --Above-normal precipitation for BC. --Milder than normal pattern prevails for Newfoundland. --Unseasonably warm across the far western U.S. --Cold pattern for the Yukon Territory. If your region is not mentioned it usually means there was nothing that stood out, meaning fairly close to normal weather conditions for the week. ACCUWEATHER.COM

TEMPERATURE EXTREMES THIS WEEK.... FEB 17- 23 .... 2008 The week's hottest temperature was 111.2 degrees Fahrenheit (44.0 degrees Celsius) at Podor, Senegal. The week's coldest temperature was minus 74.2 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 59.0 degrees Celsius) at Russia's Vostok Antarctic research station.

south pole meltdown !! Researchers from the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) say they have discovered that a group of glaciers covering an area the size of Texas has begun to flow into the ocean at an accelerated rate during the past year. They warn that if the trend were to continue, sea level could rise worldwide by nearly 10 inches over a period of several decades. Satellite observation of the West Antarctica glaciers recorded acceleration of about 1 percent per year through the 1990s. But measurements taken by a BAS team show that ice flowing into the ocean has accelerated 7 percent in a single season. One possible cause is that a deep ocean current may be undercutting the ice and lubricating its flow. Another theory is that recently discovered geothermal activity may be melting the base of the ice, helping it slide toward the sea.

My snowfall projections for the Clipper storm racing eastward over the next couple of days. It appears that the best storm dynamics will cut across Southwestern Ontario and then into New England Friday and Friday night, then up into New Brunswick and extreme southeastern Quebec on Saturday. It looks like parts of northern New Brunswick get hit hard with a heavy snowstorm out of this. Across southwestern Ontario most of the snow that fall during the afternoon Friday will be melting on treated roadways. Winnipeg, Man...5-7 cm Thursday Thunder Bay, Ont.....4-7 cm Thursday night. Sault Ste.Marie, Ont.....5-8 cm Fri/Fri. night. Sudbury, Ont.....6-8 cm Friday/Fr. night. North Bay, Ont.....5-8 cm Friday/Friday night. Parry Sound, Ont......6-10 cm Friday aft into Sat. am. Owen Sound, Ont.....8-15 cm Friday aft and into Sat. am (lake enhanced Friday night/Sat am) Barrie, Ont......6-10 cm Friday aft. into Sat. am Windsor, Ont....6-9 cm very late Thursday night and Friday. London, Ont.....5-9 cm Friday/Friday night Sarnia, Ont.......6-9 cm Friday/Friday night Kitchener, Ont..4-7 cm Friday (roads mainly wet in the afternoon) Toronto, Ont....4-7 cm Friday (brief heavy burst of snow possible in the afternoon) Hamilton, Ont.....6-10 cm Friday/Friday eve. St. Catharines.....6-10 cm Friday/Friday eve. Peterborough, Ont....6-10 cm Friday aft/night Kingston, Ont......6-9 cm late Friday into Friday night. Ottawa, Ont....5-8 cm Fri night/early Sat. Montreal, Que...3-7 cm Friday night/Sat Quebec City, Que.....6-10 cm Friday night/Sat Granby, Que....8-12 cm Friday night/Sat Sherbrooke, Que....8-15 cm lat. Friday night through late Sat. Mont Joli, Que......8-15 cm Sat/Sat night Edmundston, NB.........10-20 cm Sat/Sat night Fredericton, NB..14-24 cm late Sat through Sun Moncton, NB.....15-30 cm late Sat through Sun. Saint John, NB.....10-16 cm Sat afternoon through Sunday. Chatham, NB....15-30 cm late Sat through Sun. Charlottetown, NB.......12-25 cm late Sat/Sun (may mix eastern part of the island) Amherst, NS....10-20 cm late Sat/Sun (some rain or sleet may mix in Saturday night. Yarmouth, NS.....4-6 cm snow Sat aft. then some rain Liverpool, NS......6-10 cm of snow Sat aft/eve then some rain. Halifax, NS........6-10 cm of snow Sat aft/eve then some rain. Truro, NS....5-8 cm snow Sat eve then sleet or rain later at night. Sydney, NS.....6-12 cm of snow Sat even then over to rain late. accuweather.com

LA GRANDE NEIGE DE 1717... HOW DEEP ? How deep did the snow fall during the nine-day period from 27 February to 7th of March when the four storms, two of them of major stature, occurred ? The News-Letter's report that "the snow lies in some parts of the streets about 6 foot high, no doubt was a reference to drifts and piles of snow which had fallen off roofs. Another much-quoted account told of snow 15 to 20 feet deep and piled up against buildings over the second story window. These indicated the severe drifting in the high winds accompanying the northeasters and much be discounted as trustworthy meteorological measurements.There were two contemporary refernces that are helpful in arriving at a reasonable figure.The Blanchard manuscripts described the snow as "four feet deep, very close and hard" at Andover, some 15 miles north of boston. An account from Dorchester,immediatly south of boston, told of drifts 25 feet high. The latter figure would seem reasonable, well within what is known to be meteorologically possible in the boston area for a series of such storms if concentrated in a like nine-day period. I WILL BE GIVING A SERIES OF STORIES ABOUT THE GREAT STORMS OF THE YEAR 1717 IN THE COMIMG DAYS. ALSO I WILL NOTE THAT I SAID THAT I WILL GIVE SOME FACTS ABOUT SEVERE WINTERS OF THE 1700S IN RANKING ORDER. THAT WILL BE DONE IN THE COURSE OF THE MONTH OF MARCH. IM SORRY IF I CANNOT TRANSLATE THIS IN FRENCH BUT IF THERE ARE ANY MEMEBERS IN THIS CENTRE METEO UQAM- MONTREAL THAT COULD THAT WOULD BE A WELCOME. MERCI.....

Maybe a Greenland block after day 7 ??? TELECONNECTIONS WITH A NEGATIVE ANOMALY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND A POSITIVE ANOMALY G AROUND 40N 130-135W FAVOR LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST AND RIDGING IN THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE GFS AND ECMWF 5 DAY MEANS ARE FORECASTING A BLOCK TO DEVELOP IN THE NERN PORTION OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE NEAR THE SRN TIP OF GREENLAND. THIS COULD BE OF INTEREST AFTER DAY 7. Which would be March 6 .

Weekly Climate Summary for 16 February 2008 through 22 February 2008 UTC South Pole Station, Antarctica Temperature: Average temp... -36.8°C / -34.2°F Maximum temp... -28.1°C / -18.6°F on day 22 Minimum temp... -43.0°C / -45.4°F on day 18 Wind: Average wind speed.......... 11.5 mph or 10.0 knots Prevailing wind direction... Grid North Maximum wind speed.......... 21 mph or 18 knots on day 17 and day 20 Maximum wind direction...... Grid North and Grid Northeast Average vectored wind....... 017 degrees at 8.8 knots Station Pressure: Average pressure... 682.9 mb Highest pressure... 688.0 mb on day 22 Lowest pressure.... 675.8 mb on day 19 Physio-altitude: Average physio-alt = 10519 ft/ 3206 m Highest physio-alt = 10787 ft/ 3288 m on day 19 Lowest physio-alt = 10328 ft/ 3148 m on day 22 Sky Cover: Average cloud cover (8ths)... 7 Days clear................... 0 Days partly cloudy........... 1 Days cloudy.................. 6 Sunshine: Sunset on 22 March 2008 Average hours per day... 9.2 Percent of possible..... 38 Visibility: 0 days with visibility of 1/4 mile or less. Balloon flight data: Number of soundings for the week..... 14 Average height of soundings.......... 7.8 mb, or 34644 meters Highest sounding..................... 4.1 mb, or 37523 meters on day 22/00Z flight 0 soundings were missed. **RECORDS** No records were tied or broken this week.

Brutal cold A strong, arctic high pressure system will drop southward into the eastern prairies Tuesday, delivering a blast of bitterly cold air to the region, mainly from Saskatchewan to northwestern Ontario. How cold will it be Tuesday afternoon and night? Here is my opinion on temps...... Saskatoon, Sask......-18 to -20 c (0 to -4 F) Tue. aft. and -22 c (-8 F) Tue. night. Regina, Sask......-15 to -17 c (5 to 1 F) Tue. aft. and -21 c (-6) Tue. night. Brandon, Man......-20 to -22 c (-4 to -8 F) Tue aft. and -31 to -33 c (-23 to -27 F) Tue. night. Outlying areas north and east of Brando could easily touch -36 c. Winnipeg, Man.......-17 to -19 c (1 to -2 F) Tue. aft. and -27 to -29 c (-16 to -20 F) Tuesday night. Keep in mind, these are actual temps, not wind chills. The wind should not be too much of an issue from western Manitoba to Saskatchewan Tuesday afternoon, but it will be blustery over eastern Manitoba and northwestern Ontario during the day, making it feel about 5 to 8 c colder than the actual temp. By Tuesday night, the high builds in and most areas should experience light winds, if not a dead calm. Other stuff The weak clipper pushing into the Midwestern U.S Tuesday night will likely stay too far to the south to have much impact on southwestern Ontario late Tuesday night and early Wednesday. That same clipper will intensify over the Atlantic late Wednesday and may brush coastal Nova Scotia with some light snow late Wednesday night and early Thursday, but it has just as much of a chance of missing the area completely. I am concerned that the clipper storm gets drawn toward southeastern Newfoundland Thursday and could bring a moderate accumulation of snow to the region. More on that later. On the flip side of the cold and snow, much of interior British Columbia through Alberta should continue to experiences unseasonably mild and dry weather through at least Thursday and probably Friday as Pacific air continues to flow across the region. Oh, there is one more thing. We will be watching a storm moving up through the Tennessee Valley Thursday night. A majority of models have this system moving up toward West Virginia then redeveloping over eastern North Carolina then passing southeast of New England late Friday. If that track hold, then most of eastern Canada will miss out on this storm. The new European model just came in as I was writing and has the storm moving up over New England by early Saturday morning. If that track holds up, then we may be dealing with a winter storm from eastern ontario through Quebec Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. I will keep you posted. Updated: 2/18/2008 3:20 PM accuweather.com

LA NINA TOUJOURS TRES FORT .... The current La Niña event, characterized by a cooling of the sea surface in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific, has strengthened slightly in recent months and is expected to continue through the first quarter of 2008, with a likelihood of persisting through to the middle of the year. The ongoing La Niña event started in the third quarter of 2007 and has already influenced climate patterns during the last six months across many parts of the globe, including in the Equatorial Pacific, across the Indian Ocean, Asia, Africa and the Americas. During the last three months, La Niña conditions have become slightly stronger. Sea surface temperatures are now about 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius colder than average over large parts of the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific. This La Niña is in the mid range of past historically recorded events, but the slight further cooling in recent months will likely place it on the stronger side of the middle range. During a La Niña event, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific become cooler than normal. Such cooling has important effects on the global weather, particularly rainfall. While sea surface temperatures cool in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific, those in the west remain warmer. This is associated with increases in the frequency of heavy rain and thunderstorms in surrounding regions. In contrast to La Niña, the El Niño phenomenon is characterized by substantially warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific. These temperature changes in the Equatorial Pacific related to La Niña and El Niño are strongly linked to major global climate fluctuations and, once initiated, can last for 12 months or more. Most interpretations of existing climatological data suggest the likelihood of La Niña conditions remaining heightened through the second quarter of 2008 and, at a lower level of confidence, into the first part of the third quarter. Longer seasonal forecasts beyond the third quarter of 2008 are not considered to contain useful information at this stage on the continuation of La Niña or the rise of El Niño. It is rare for a La Niña event to persist for two years or more, such as occurred from early 1998 to early 2000. The likelihood of the current La Niña continuing for such a period will remain unclear for some months, but will be closely monitored. Long-term statistics suggest it is more likely that in the latter part of 2008, neutral conditions will prevail, i.e., neither La Niña nor El Niño with no significant cooling or warming of Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures. Adapted from materials provided by World Meteorological Organization. JOE BASTARDI A RAISON JE PENSE POUR LA NINA QUE PENSEZ VOUS LES AMIS ??

NEIGE DUPUIS NOVEMBRE http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?...ler=0&article=8

January Statistics BY BRETT ANDERSON ACCUWEATHER.COM http://global-warming.accuweather.com/

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/JB_Climate_Change.pdf BY JOE BASTARDI ACCUWEATHER.COM

2 storms on the menu by accuweather brett anderson.... A fairly weak storm system will track across Lake Huron early Tuesday then reach the state of Maine by Tuesday evening. Most of the precipitation associated with the storm will be out ahead of the storm center, as milder air is lifted up and over the colder air below, which results in a rising column of air that condenses and falls as snow. At this point, I am not expecting any major accumulations out of this as you can tell by the snowfall map. Actually, snow will likely change to a period of sleet and freezing rain before it tapers off Tuesday morning around Ottawa, Ontario. You can expect a similar changeover by Tuesday afternoon around Montreal and then into southern New Brunswick and much of Nova Scotia Tuesday evening, though coastal sections will just change to plain rain. A second, stronger storm for midweek A second storm system will ride up along a boundary dividing warm air to the south from seasonably cold air to the north Tuesday and Wednesday. Ontario and Quebec will remain on the cold side of this front during the period and that will result in some wet snow or rain changing to wet snow from across the southern half of Ontario Tuesday night and through Wednesday then into extreme southern Quebec Wednesday and Wednesday night. By the way, the storm will be slowly weakening as it tracks into the Northeast U.S. Here are some initial snowfall predictions......... Windsor, Ont.....Rain changing to wet snow Wednesday afternoon and ending Wednesday evening....1-3 cm. London, Ont....Rain changing to wet snow Wednesday morning then ending Wednesday evening......3-6 cm. St. Catharines, Ont.....Rain changing to wet snow by early Wednesday afternoon then ending Wednesday evening.......2-4 cm. Hamilton, Ont....Rain changing to wet snow Wednesday morning then ending Wednesday evening.....3-6 cm. Toronto/Kitchener, Ont.....Rain changing to snow before dawn Wednesday. Snow into Wednesday evening.......6-8 cm. Owen Sound, Ont.....Snow Wednesday and Wednesday evening......10-17 cm Barrie, Ont......Snow Wednesday and Wednesday evening.......8-13 cm Parry Sound, Ont.......Snow Wednesday and Wednesday evening....8-13 cm North Bay, Ont....Snow Wednesday, mostly light.......4-9 cm Peterborough, Ont....Snow Wednesday and Wednesday evening.....5-9 cm Kingston, Ont.....Wet snow Wednesday and Wednesday evening........3-6 cm Ottawa, Ont......Light snow Wednesday and Wednesday evening.......5-8 cm Montreal, Que......Light snow Wednesday and Wednesday evening...4-6 cm Cornwall, Ont......Light snow Wednesday and Wednesday evening.....5-8 cm

Near-Record Warmth Monday Feb 4 2008. Southwesterly winds will spread unseasonably warm air through Texas and into Oklahoma and Arkansas during the day Monday. Afternoon temperatures could reach the lower 80s as far north as Dallas, Texas and even set some records. accuweather.com

by brett anderson accuweather... My February Forecast Sunday, February 03, 2008 Here are my thoughts about February across Canada Newfoundland: Overall, February looks stormy. Temperatures early in the month will be slightly above normal then back to normal mid-month. Temperatures late in the month might end up colder compared to normal. In terms of precipitation, I expect a snowy month across central and northern Newfoundland, while the far south might have to deal with several storms that bring snow and perhaps some rain. As it turns colder late in the month it should begin to dry out some. Nova Scotia/PEI: February will be an unsettled month overall, with several storm systems moving in from the southwest. In terms of snowfall, I expect slightly above-normal amounts, since there will be a few storms that bring more of a mix/rain compared to snow. The end of the month might turn drier. In terms of temperature, I expect slightly warmer than normal temperatures early in the month, then near-normal readings mid-month. It might turn colder than normal late in the month. New Brunswick: Early February will be mild compared to normal, then trend back to normal mid-month. Much colder weather could return late in the month. Much of early and mid-February will bring above-normal precipitation, with above-normal snowfall, especially the northern two-thirds. Drier conditions should return late in the month. Quebec: The first half of the month will bring above-normal snowfall as a series of storm systems track close by, but temperatures across the south will be slightly milder than normal, while the north is seasonably cold. More of a northwesterly flow of air will return the second half of the month, leading to colder and drier weather. Ontario: Precipitation across southern Ontario will be greater than normal the first half of the month, with near-normal amounts of snow. Snowfall across northern Ontario the first half of the month will be slightly less than normal. The second half of the month should gradually turn drier. In terms of temperature, The first half of the month will be milder than normal across the south and near-normal in the north. Temperatures will be close to normal throughout much of the province the second half of the month. Manitoba: Snowfall will be close to normal across the south the first half of the month and below-normal in the north. Snowfall will be below normal throughout much of the province the second half of the month. In terms of temperature, the north will be colder than normal the first half of the month then trend back to normal, if not slightly above the second part of the month. Temperatures across the south will greatly fluctuate between very cold and normal the first half of the month, while the second half of the month will be more consistent and not be as cold. Saskatchewan:: The first two weeks of the month will be colder than normal with above-normal snowfall as a series of fast-moving systems move through. The north will be especially cold. Temperatures will trend back to normal the third week of the month and perhaps slightly above-normal late. Snowfall should be close to normal the second half of the month across the province. Alberta:: Expect large temperature fluctuations the first half of the month with short periods of very cold weather followed by a quick, but brief warm up. Temperatures the second half of the month will trend slightly above-normal across the south, near-normal in the mountains and slightly colder than normal in the north. I think for the most part, snowfall the first two weeks of the month will be greater than normal, then slightly less than normal last two weeks. The mountains should see above-normal snowfall throughout much of the month. British Columbia: The first half of the month will be rather stormy across western British Columbia with a series of Pacific fronts impacting the region, meaning plenty of coastal rain (the exception being the eastern downslope areas of Vancouver Island) and mountain snow, which keeps the good news flowing for the ski areas. Temperatures across the south the first half of the month will be near to slightly above normal, while the north will be colder than normal. The second half of the month will bring slightly above-normal temperatures to much of the province. In terms of precipitation, not as stormy across the southwest, but stormy, with plenty of snow in the north. Short term briefly I will be talking about a few storms this week. We have the potential for accumulating snow from central and eastern Ontario through Quebec, northern New Brunswick and interior Newfoundland Wednesday and Wednesday night. A couple of storms could also bring accumulating snow from the Canadian Rockies through the western prairies this week, especially in a line from north of Red Deer, AB to Saskatoon, Sask. Also, A storm will bring a small accumulation of snow to the Sudbury/North Bay, Ontario region Monday night, followed by some sleet and freezing rain.

historiqe du 4 février 1996 Calgary's cold weather sprouted a bumber crop of potholes.about 1200 residents of neighbourhoods near the bow and elbow rivers recived city notices to turn on water taps around the clock. the cold had penetrated up t 3 m into gravel subsoil. 1916 The centre block of the parliament buildings was an ice-encrusted ruin by fire.firefighters coats were frozen stiff and soldiers uniforms were white with frozen spray in -13c temperatures. 1990 mild weather with near freezing temperatures boosted attendance at quebecs city's winter carnival but in ottawa the rare february thaw forced the cancellation of some outdoor events of the winterlude festival. 1646 in Virginia ships were frozen for 6 weeks starting Feb 4 and duplicated 140 years later in 1780 and 1784 when again Chesapeake Bay congealed solidly twice at a similar 4 year interval. sources: Tomas Glover inhabitants of royal majesty ship lines. David Phillips canadian trivia calendar. 1991 1996 and 1997 editions.

On this day Feb 3 1776 Wind W. excessively cold. The weather almost unendurable by reason of the cold. Col. Arnolds Journal of his expedition to Canada. The region he is talking about is between Portage and Quebec city taking the route of the river la Chaudiere.

accuweather pour le 1 FEV 2008. Storm Snowfall Prediction Wednesday, January 30, 2008 Eastern Canada snowstorm still in the works starting Thursday night and Friday The storm we are talking about will begin to intensify Wednesday evening over the Texas Panhandle. As the storm moves eastward into southern Arkansas Thursday it will begin to tap into rich, Gulf moisture which will lead to an expanding area of precipitation around the storm. The storm center will then pass through Kentucky Thursday night before reaching northern Ohio Friday afternoon. This initial storm will then begin to feel the effects of some blocking over northeastern Canada Friday afternoon and the storm will slow down and transfer some of its energy farther to the east, leading to a secondary storm development over eastern Pennsylvania later Friday afternoon. This process will also cut off any attempt of warming getting into areas north of Hamilton, Ontario. The secondary storm will then take over Friday evening and track up across the state of Maine Friday overnight. The storm center should pass very close to Prince Edward Island Saturday afternoon and then over central Newfoundland Saturday evening. With this type of track, it appears that the heaviest snow will track up across portions of eastern Ontario and southern Quebec. Areas just north and west of a line from Toronto to Ottawa and Montreal should see a pretty good snowstorm out of this. Here is an update of my forecast for selected cities..... Windsor, Ont....12-20 cm of snow Thursday night and Friday London, Ont.....15-22 cm Hamilton, Ont......14-20 cm (a little sleet possible) St. Catharines, Ont......10-17 cm (some sleet or freezing rain possible) Toronto, Ont....15-25 cm Barrie, Ont....18-27 cm Owen Sound, Ont....10-18 cm Bracebridge, Ont.....12-20 cm North Bay, Ont.......8-12 cm Sudbury, Ont.....4-8 cm Peterborough, Ont...14-22 cm Kingston, Ont.....12-22 cm (possible sleet briefly) Friday Ottawa, Ont.......20-30 cm Friday and Friday night (areas just north 25-35 cm) Cornwall, Ont....12-22 cm (a little sleet possible Friday evening) Montreal, Que.....15-30 cm (a little sleet possible Friday evening) (areas just north 20-35 cm) Quebec City, Que.....20-35 cm Sherbrooke, Que.....7-12 cm of snow then sleet and ice likely Friday night) Edmundston, NB.....12-22 cm Friday and Friday evening then a chance of sleet later Friday night. Fredericton, NB....4-7 cm snow Friday evening then ice Friday night Moncton, NB......3-6 cm then ice and rain by Friday night Saint John, NB.... tr-3 cm of snow Friday evening then a little ice followed by rain. Updated: 1/30/2008 12:42 PM

NEXT STORM TOTALS FEB 1 2008. Next storm on the way Confidence is now high for a potent storm to track northeastward toward eastern Canada late Thursday night and through Friday. A storm will rapidly intensify over the lower Mississippi Valley Thursday. The storm will then track up toward the northeast Thursday night, with the center reaching southern Ohio or eastern Kentucky Friday morning. The storm will then shift up into upstate New York Friday evening and then northern Maine by Saturday morning. Unlike this past storm, there will be a fresher supply of cold air in the way of this storm, so I am convinced this one could cause a lot of travel headaches from parts of Ontario through New Brunswick. There will also be a push of milder air coming in aloft on the northeast side of the storm during Friday, so there is the potential for some mixed precipitation over southern portions of Ontario, Quebec and interior New Brunswick on Friday. Some initial accumulation estimates.......I will narrow them up and include more locations Wednesday and Thursday as we get closer to the event. Windsor, Ont....10-20 cm of snow Thursday night and Friday London, Ont.....12-25 cm Hamilton, Ont......8-16 cm (possible mix) Toronto, Ont....10-18 cm (possible mix) Barrie, Ont....12-25 cm North Bay, Ont.......7-12 cm Sudbury, Ont.....4-8 cm Peterborough, Ont...12-22 cm Kingston, Ont.....12-22 cm (possible mix) Ottawa, Ont.......15-30 cm Friday and Friday night Cornwall, Ont....12-25 cm Montreal, Que.....15-30 cm Quebec City, Que.....15-30 cm Sherbrooke, Que.....10-18 cm (possible mix) Edmundston, NB.....15-25 cm Fredericton, NB....4-7 cm then ice Friday evening Moncton, NB......3-6 cm then ice and rain by Friday night Saint John, NB....2-4 cm of snow Friday evening then a little ice followed by rain. Updated: 1/29/2008 6:31 PM (ACCUWEATHER...BRETT ANDERSON)