iceberg

MORE EXTREME WEATHER MAY BE IN STORE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 35 YEARS Since mid-1967, we have seen more long-standing weather records broken worldwide for both temperature and precipitation than we did from the end of the Civil War until the late 20th Century. Based on our long-term weather charts that date back to 600 B.C., we may be only halfway through a long-term 70-YEAR GLOBAL CYCLE OF WIDE WEATHER "EXTREMES" that began in the late 1960s and probably won't end until at least the late 2030s. The weather, like many other things does appear to go through a variety of short and long-term cycles. Have you ever noticed that rain will fall on a particular day during the week (usually the weekend days from what I hear) for about a month? Or, we'll notice one region getting deluged from record precipitation while other parts of the country are suffering from parching drought? Well, Climatologist Cliff Harris and I believe that the weather does have a number of cycles that range from nearly 7 days to 6 weeks and much longer. This particular global cycle of wide weather EXTREMES seems to occur about every 500 years. Since this cycle began, we've seen at least 70,000 worldwide records fall that once stood for over 200 years. Since we're only about half way through this cycle, we can obviously expect more extreme weather conditions. The Winter of 2007-08 was indeed one of the harshest in recorded history across the globe. There have been record snows across parts of the Inland Northwest that have raised fears of major flooding. In February alone, there have been heavy snows near the Great Lakes. We just had one of the worst February outbreaks of tornadoes in the mid-South early in 2008, with the worst in eastern Arkansas and western Tennessee with severe flooding in the Ohio Valley. Severe ice storms have also plagued Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. Schools were closed in southern Illinois for the first time since the 1980s. In February, 2008, Minnesota plunged to an all-time record -40 degrees this morning, a place officially known as the nations "icebox." Many places across the northern regions of the U.S. experienced temperatures from -20 to -35 degrees. Arctic cold also gripped Europe as records were shattered due to the extreme conditions. Vienna, Austrias subway tracks cracked and German authorities had to shut down a key water canal after it iced up. Heavy snows fell on Greeces elevated ancient Acropolis and lighter snows covered much of nearby Athens. One lake in Siberia, where temperatures dipped to an all-time low of -64 degrees, reported ice as much as 13-feet thick which killed most of the fish. Even normally mild southern China has seen blizzard conditions making this one of the most severe weather seasons in over 800 years. Over 40% of the Chinas winter rapeseed (canola) crop has been lost to cold, snow and ice. Afghanistan has also observed rare blizzards this winter season resulting in the deaths of hundreds of people. "Rare" snow were likewise observed in normally warm Baghdad, Iraq; Cairo, Egypt; Palermo and Sicily in the "boot" of Italy; Istanbul, Turkey and Jerusalem in Israel, just to name a few spots. In the last 10 years, we've also seen disastrous 500-YEAR FLOODS in the Midwestern U.S. There have also been big floods throughout much of Central Europe and parts of Russia in 2002 that caused billions of dollars in property damage. In 1998-99, Mt. Baker in Washington State recorded the highest worldwide snowfall ever with 1,140 inches. While some parts of the world receive the flooding rains, as mentioned earlier, others have seen some of the WORST DROUGHTS in 400-500 years in parts of the U.S., Mexico and central Canada as well as across portions of Asia, much of Africa, Australia, extreme southern Europe and the Mediterranean regions. For example, the western U.S. Great Plains, the Desert Southwest and Southern California experinced the worst drought conditions since the infamous DUST BOWL DAYS of the 1930s back in 2006. Since the early 1990s, we've experienced the WARMEST period overall since the last cycle of global warming about 1,000 years ago. Believe it or not, temperatures were even milder than what they are today. During that time, it was warm enough that the Vikings were farming parts of southwestern Greenland. But, 200 years later, the climate drastically changed and the so-called LITTLE ICE AGE brought bitter cold and snow to that region forcing the Vikings to evacuate. But, in early 2008, global temperatures have dropped approximately seven-tenths of a degree Fahrenheit since August of 2007. Sunspot activity has noticeably quiet in early 2008. We eventually see more sudden shifts in the fast-moving upper-level jet stream winds that help steer weather systems around the planet. These global shifts in climate tend to occur with the arrival of the virtually every El Nino, the abnormal warming of ocean waters, or La Nina, the abnormal cooling of sea-surface temperatures in the South-Central Pacific Ocean along the Equatorial regions near the West Coast of South America. Within the last several years, we've seen dramatic warming and cooling of ocean temperatures within very short periods of time. So when will we finally get out of this Cycle of Wide Weather Extremes that's the strongest in about 1,000 years? Well, this particular cycle usually lasts about 70 years. Since it started around 1967, it probably will not peak until at least 2038 and possibly will become the worst such climatological cycle in at least 6,000 years. Until then, expect more long-standing weather records to fall. But, there may be a brief break in this weather pattern. Cliff is forecasting a brief period of "calm" from these extremes around 2010, give or take a few years either way. However, the EXTREMES are expected to return and perhaps become even more severe from about 2017 to 2038. Only time will tell. By Meteorologist Randy Mann.

GLOBAL TEMPERATURE EXTREMES The week's hottest temperature was 115.7 degrees Fahrenheit (46.5 degrees Celsius) at Saint-Louis, Senegal. The week's coldest temperature was minus 89.9 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 67.7 degrees Celsius) at Russia's Vostok Antarctic research station. WEEK OF APRIL 4TH 2008.

These winter rankings are from 1600 to 2008. Only winters with extremely severe to very severe and to severe made the list. 1=2=3=4 are rated SEVERE.5=6=7= are rated VERY SEVERE.8=9=10 are rated EXTREMELY SEVERE. These rankings could change in future updates as more information is obtained from the archives or emailed to me from various sources.The mean average temperture and snowfall totals are for McGill and from December till March .The winter years before that are ranked also for Montreal winters and area for the north east. Before 1871 official totals for weather information were given out only for military naval and outposts in remote areas.There is so much data to comply before 1871 and to give out a average temperture and snowfall amount will be hard.But i think its still possbile to give out some informaton before 1871 for Montreal and area.I will try to put out something in the future. The rankings i made were based on how hard the winter was. So twice or once a week i will write a small story on each winter season starting from no.38 and going down to no.1. The king of all winters 1697-98. I will also leave a map chart at the end of the rankings and you could see where the warm periods began and the ice ages also. I hope you enjoy this. Thank You, Merci Beaucoup RANK.... YEAR.... CLASS.... TEMP/AVG.... SNOWFALL 1...... 1697-98.... 10 2...... 1740-41.... 9 3...... 1641-42.... 9 4...... 1604-05.... 9 5...... 1732-33.... 9 6...... 1680-81.... 9 7...... 1783-84.... 9 8...... 1637-38.... 8 9...... 1764-65.... 8 10.... 1779-80.... 7 11.... 1835-36.... 7 12.... 1798-99.... 7 13.... 1719-20.... 7 14.... 1704-05.... 7 15.... 1819-20.... 6 16.... 1831-32.... 6 17.... 1705-06.... 6 18.... 1747-48.... 6 19.... 1856-57.... 6 20.... 1817-18.... 6 21.... 1836-37.... 5 22.... 1867-68.... 5 23.... 1884-85.... 5.... -10.7.... 322.1 24.... 1903-04.... 5.... -10.5.... 289.8 25.... 1933-34.... 5.... -10.5.... 228.3 26.... 1874-75.... 5.... -10.9.... 217.5 27.... 1886-87.... 5.... -10.0.... 349.5 28.... 1904-05.... 5.... -10.4.... 298.2 29.... 1887-88.... 4..... - 9.9.... 298.7 30.... 1917-18.... 4.... -10.3.... 293.4 31.... 1882-83.... 4.... -10.3.... 286.8 32.... 1970-71.... 4..... - 9.4.... 364.2 33.... 1883-84.... 3..... - 9.0.... 299.2 34.... 1906-07.... 3..... - 9.2.... 276.6 35.... 1993-94.... 3..... - 9.3.... 230.8 36.... 1958-59.... 3..... - 9.2.... 244.1 37.... 1878.79.... 3..... - 8.3.... 330.5 38.... 1892-93.... 3..... - 9.3.... 159.5

For Rockabills Question ?? Ive been always fasinated in weather history since i was 7 years of age.And i do believe that in studying the earths weather history you can forcast the future. There are cycles that come and go.We only know so much but not enough. But if we could figure out the cycles we could somehow forcast some large events into the future of weather forcasting.Weather data only goes back to 1604 and that information is on documentation by colonists. Even Jacques Cartier who wintered near Quebec in 1535-36 had a very mild winter posted in his logs and that was part of a cycle that would come to haunt European settlers starting in the year 1604.

I will soon post a new classification of winters from 1604 to 2008. This classification will be ranked in order of severity.Im very sorry if ive caused any problems with this being in english. I do speak french very well but i cannot write in french very well so like Shawn said in his post if he would like to translate this it would be very welcome. Merci .

This data is part of my weather collection which ive obtained for the past 28 years. Weather history books, manuscipts and of course from the american library. Many books were not reprinted anymore so much of the data is archived at the american library which ive obtained during my years of collecting this data. There is so much data dating back to 1604 and i will share it with this forum in the coming years. I hope you will enjoy it.

CLASSIFICATION OF WINTERS FROM 1697 TO 1799 PART 1 OF 4 RANKING ORDER...... ( NOTES ) 1. 1697-98 = EXTREMELY SEVERE 2. 1740-41 = VERY SEVERE 3. 1704-05 = VERY SEVERE 4. 1705-06 = VERY SEVERE 5. 1732-33 = VERY SEVERE 6. 1719-20 = VERY SEVERE 7. 1764-65 = VERY SEVERE 8. 1783-84 = VERY SEVERE 9. 1798-99 = VERY SEVERE 10. 1747-48 = VERY SEVERE 11. 1798-99 = VERY SEVERE 12. 1779-80 = VERY SEVERE NORTH EASTERN WINTERS

Not to be alarmed about the massive breakup of the willkins shelf its only been 200 years its been there only taking its natural cycle and of course the massive weight does not help. A new shelf will take its place in 500 years time.

A study of George VI Ice Shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula is the first to show that this currently healthy ice shelf experienced an extensive retreat about 9500 years ago, more than anything seen in recent years. The retreat coincided with a shift in ocean currents that occurred after a long period of warmth. Whilst rising air temperatures are believed to be the primary cause of recent dramatic disintegration of ice shelves like Larsen B, the new study suggests that the ocean may play a more significant role in destroying them than previously thought. The University of Durhams, Dr Mike Bentley, one of the leaders of the project said, We know that rising air temperatures can break up ice shelves but there has been a suspicion for some time that the role of the ocean may have been underestimated. This is some of the first evidence that a shift in ocean currents can actually destroy ice shelves. In this case its possible that a preceding warm period may have primed the ice shelf to disintegrate when the ocean currents shifted. The scientists analysed sediments from the bottom of a freshwater lake close to the edge of the present George VI Ice Shelf. The results revealed that about 9500 years ago the ice shelf retreated, allowing the sea to flood into the lake. The ice shelf didnt reform until 1500 years later, and has been present ever since. The findings are particularly relevant for other studies on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet where scientists have found that a relatively warm current, Circumpolar Deep Water, is causing high melt rates on the underside of an ice shelf in Pine Island Bay*. The gradual removal of this ice shelf may be causing the glaciers inland to flow faster, which could lead to enhanced drainage of part of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and a consequent rise in sea level.

South Pole Weekly Climate Summary for 15 Mar - 21 Mar, 2008 Weekly Climate Summary for 15 March 2008 through 21 March 2008 UTC South Pole Station, Antarctica Temperature: Average temp... -55.7ｰC / -68.3ｰF Maximum temp... -35.9ｰC / -32.6ｰF on day 21 Minimum temp... -63.9ｰC / -83.0ｰF on day 18 Wind: Average wind speed.......... 11.5 mph or 10.0 knots Prevailing wind direction... Grid Northeast Maximum wind speed.......... 18 mph or 16 knots on day 19 Maximum wind direction...... Grid Northeast Average vectored wind....... 056 degrees at 8.2 knots Station Pressure: Average pressure... 681.3 mb Highest pressure... 696.6 mb on day 21 Lowest pressure.... 672.6 mb on day 17 Physio-altitude: Average physio-alt = 10579 ft/ 3224 m Highest physio-alt = 10909 ft/ 3325 m on day 17 Lowest physio-alt = 10008 ft/ 3050 m on day 21 Sky Cover: Average cloud cover (8ths)... 5 Days clear................... 1 Days partly cloudy........... 5 Days cloudy.................. 1 Sunshine: Sunset on 22 March 2008 Average hours per day... 13.9 Percent of possible..... 58 Visibility: 0 days with visibility of 1/4 mile or less. Balloon flight data: Number of soundings for the week..... 7 Average height of soundings.......... 5.5 mb, or 34416 meters Highest sounding..................... 4.0 mb, or 36556 meters on day 18/00Z flight 0 soundings were missed. **RECORDS** DAY 21: The maximum temperature of -35.9C/-32.6F broke the previous record high of -37.0C/-34.6F set in 1988.

Arctic Sea Ice Still At Risk Despite Cold Winter, NASA Says ScienceDaily (Mar. 19, 2008) Using the latest satellite observations, NASA researchers and others report that the Arctic is still on "thin ice" when it comes to the condition of sea ice cover in the region. A colder-than-average winter in some regions of the Arctic this year has yielded an increase in the area of new sea ice, while the older sea ice that lasts for several years has continued to decline. On March 18 the scientists said they believe that the increased area of sea ice this winter is due to recent weather conditions, while the decline in perennial ice reflects the longer-term warming climate trend and is a result of increased melting during summer and greater movement of the older ice out of the Arctic. Perennial sea ice is the long-lived, year-round layer of ice that remains even when the surrounding short-lived seasonal sea ice melts away in summer to its minimum extent. It is this perennial sea ice, left over from the summer melt period, that has been rapidly declining from year to year, and that has gained the attention and research focus of scientists. According to NASA-processed microwave data, whereas perennial ice used to cover 50-60 percent of the Arctic, this year it covers less than 30 percent. Very old ice that remains in the Arctic for at least six years comprised over 20 percent of the Arctic area in the mid to late 1980s, but this winter it decreased to just six percent. According to Walt Meier of the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado, Boulder, as ice ages it continues to grow and thicken, so that older ice is generally also thicker ice. This winter the ice cover is much thinner overall and thus in a more vulnerable state heading into the summer melt season. NASA's ICESat satellite has contributed to understanding of the changes in ice thickness. To get a better understanding of the behavior of sea ice, NASA is planning a follow-on satellite mission, ICESat II, to launch in 2015. Arctic sea ice grows and declines seasonally, ranging from an average minimum extent in September of 2.5 million square miles to an average winter maximum extent of 5.9 million square miles in March. This March, instruments on NASA's Aqua satellite and NOAA and U.S. Defense Department satellites showed the maximum sea ice extent slightly increased by 3.9 percent over that of the previous three years, but it is still below the long-term average by 2.2 percent. Increases in ice extent occurred in areas where surface temperatures were colder than the historical averages. At the same time, as a result of the export of ice from the Arctic, the area of perennial ice decreased to an all-time minimum. Joey Comiso of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md., the lead author of a 2007 related study, used data from NASA's passive microwave data set to establish that the perennial ice cover at the summer Arctic ice minimum in 2007 was about 40 percent less than the 28-year average. According to the latest observations from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (an organization partially funded by NASA), perennial sea ice dropped from about 40 percent of the total ice pack last year to 30 percent of total ice this winter. The perennial ice is also growing younger, meaning that it is thinner and will be more vulnerable during the summer melt period. In light of the Arctic's cold spell this winter, NASA satellites and scientists will continue to carefully watch conditions in the Arctic Ocean as summer settles in to better determine the extent of the perennial sea ice.

MONTREAL'S GREATEST SNOWSTORM FROM THE 1800S. Montreal had its greatest strom of the winter on the 16-17th of march 1821 when 2 feet fell. This storm raised the cover at Riviere du Loup to 4 feet. The month of March brought some heavy snows to the St. Lawrence Valley. The snow cover for Montreal stood at 4 feet also during this period. This was 187 years ago.

Alertes/avertissements ST. JOHN'S ET LES ENVIRONS 19H46 HAT LE LUNDI 17 MARS 2008 UN AVERTISSEMENT DE TEMPETE HIVERNALE POUR ST. JOHN'S ET LES ENVIRONS EST MAINTENU LA NEIGE ET LES VENTS VIOLENTS RENDRONT LA VISIBILITE PRESQUE NULLE DANS LA POUDRERIE CETTE NUIT ET MARDI. ON PREVOIT UN TOTAL DE 45 A 60 CENTIMETRES DE NEIGE D ICI LA NUIT DE MARDI A MERCREDI. VEUILLEZ SURVEILLER LES CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES ET LES MISES A JOUR DE BULLETINS. UNE VASTE ET INTENSE TEMPETE HIVERNALE ACTUELLEMENT AU SUD-EST DE LA NOUVELLE-ECOSSE SE DIRIGERA TRES LENTEMENT VERS LE NORD-EST ET SE TROUVERA JUSTE AU SUD DES GRANDS BANCS CETTE NUIT OU ELLE DEVIENDRA QUASI STATIONNAIRE. LA NEIGE ET LA POUDRERIE ASSOCIEES A CE SYSTEME AFFECTENT ACTUELLEMENT LE SUD-EST DE TERRE-NEUVE ET CONTINUERONT DE SE PROPAGER VERS LE NORD-OUEST CETTE NUIT. SUR LE CENTRE, LE SUD ET LE NORD-EST DE TERRE-NEUVE, LA NEIGE ET LA POUDRERIE PERSISTERONT JUSQUE DANS LA NUIT DE MARDI A MERCREDI. L ACCUMULATION TOTALE DE NEIGE VARIERA DE 20 A 60 CENTIMETRES, LA PLUS IMPORTANTE SE TROUVANT SUR L EST DE TERRE-NEUVE. SUR LA PENINSULE D AVALON, LA NEIGE DEVRAIT SE CHANGER EN PLUIE VERGLACANTE MARDI MATIN PUIS PERSISTERA DANS LA NUIT DE MARDI A MERCREDI ALORS QUE LES TEMPERATURES DEMEURERONT STATIONNAIRES A PRES DE ZERO OU JUSTE EN DESSOUS. DE PLUS, DES VENTS TRES FORTS DE NORD A NORD-EST AVEC DES RAFALES JUSQU A 80 KM/H DANS L INTERIEUR ET A 120 KM/H SUR LES SECTEURS COTIERS CAUSERONT DE LA POUDRERIE REDUISANT LA VISIBILITE PRATIQUEMENT PARTOUT. LES NIVEAUX D EAUX POURRAIENT ETRE PLUS ELEVES QUE LA NORMALE LE LONG DE LA COTE EST ET DE LA COTE NORD-EST CETTE NUIT ET MARDI SURTOUT DANS LES SECTEURS EN EAU LIBRE OU DE GROSSES VAGUES PEUVENT SE FORMER.

End to Australia Heat Wave --Southern Australia: It has been a hot month thus far in southern Australia with Monday being one of its hotter days from Adelaide to Melbourne. Indeed, Adelaide, which had seven days in 10 reaching at least 100 degrees F (near 38 C), has been hot for two full weeks leading to a monthly average temperature (March to date) more than 10 degrees F (nearly 6 degrees C) above normal. Monday had 104-105 F, or near 40 C) And Melbourne has been warmer than usual by nearly 7 degrees since the start of March. Monday`s 100-degree heat (101-102 degrees F, or about 39 C) made it five days of at least 100 degrees. Sunday was even hotter than Monday in southern Australia. Eucla hit 109 degrees and Forrest reached 108 (this is near 42 D); both are in southeastern Western Australia. In South Australia, Port Augusta had 106 degrees (41 C). In Victoria, southernmost (and thus coolest) of the Australian mainland, Avalon heated to 108 degrees Monday whereas Geelong topped out 107 degrees. --For southern Australia between Adelaide and Melbourne, Monday marked then end of the late-summer heat wave owing to a moderate, but highly important, cold front. Tuesday, the southeast corner of Australia--easternmost Victoria into southeastern New South Wales--will get one more shot at 100-degree heat thanks to a northwesterly wind flow. By Wednesday, the cold front will put an end to this. --South Asia: Speak of heating up, the Subcontinent has done exactly that. Widespread Monday was 100-degree F (38 C) from Gujarat east to West Bengal and from Maharashtra north to Rajasthan and even Haryana. Akola, in Maharashtra, led the way with 104 degrees (39.8 C). This heat befits mid April, but is above-normal for mid March. At the same time, Sri Lanka and southernmost India (Tamil and Kerala) have been rainy of late. In Sri Lanka, Batticaloa got 7.1 inches (178 mm) of rain Sunday through Monday. This amount is more than twice the average monthly rain for March. The rain may be linked to the heat farther north. I foresee few more days of at least scattered downpour, based upon numerical forecasts. --North Asia: High winds over Mongolia and nearby Russia (Buryatiya and Chita) raised dust storms Monday over the Mongolian desert. This dust may be seen Tuesday and Wednesday over cities from Beijing, China, to Seoul, South Korea. --Near East: Numerical forecast show a strong ridge (high pressure aloft) over northeast Africa to northwest Arabia by the end this week. If true, this would coincide with a late-march heat wave centered upon Egypt. --Antarctica: Time to cool things off some. In Antarctica, where it is still late summer, Concordia Dome station had a thermometer reading at least 88 degrees F (66.5 C) below zero. Late last week, it was as cold as -85 degrees F (-64.8 C) at Amundsen-Scott station, at the South Pole.

2008-2009 North American Weather Outlook accuweather.com

late week pattern.. Unseasonably cold air will spread back into the Great Lakes and Northeast late this week as a building block of high pressure near southern Greenland forces the cold air farther to the south and east. The primary storm track will run across the Northern states, but the storms should be fairly weak. Much of the South will enjoy dry weather late this week with above-normal temperatures. Story by AccuWeather.com senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson.

CLIMATE (50 B.C. - 0 A.D.): There have been several times in history when the warm phase of the 1000year cycle was interrupted by a rather long and vigorous cold period. During each one of these interruptions there have been historic civil conflicts. These civil wars are generally very bloody, fought between two strong factions --the liberals versus the conservatives. . A cold interruption of this sort began around 130 B.C. and was marked by the famous wars of the Gracchi in Rome. Now, at 50 B.C., there began a 20-year cold period during which furious civil wars were fought in the Roman Empire. Another famous cold period of the same sort began in 1510 and was followed by the Protestant Reformation. Still another took place immediately after 1810. This was the decade during which the Latin American countries began their struggle for independence. Following all of these cold periods, the second half of the warm phase is much drier than the first half and terminates in the main warm-dry phase of the cycle. In the present instance, however, the droughts were not excessive and there was a sufficient recovery in rainfall to produce a period of prosperity and a brief but historic cultural epoch--the "Augustan Age" of Rome. At 10 B.C. it turned cold for the main cold-phase of the 100-year cycle and remained cold most of the time for the next 75 years. It was during this cold period that, in accordance with our reckoning, the current 500-year cycle came to an end. HISTORY (50 B.C. - 0 A.D.): All through the cold period from 50 to 30 B.C., Rome was gripped in civil war; first between Caesar and Pompey, then between Octavius and Antony. The whole known world seethed with political intrigue and double crossing. In 45, Cleopatra poisoned her brother in Egypt, and reigned alone. Caesar was assassinated in 44. Cicero was murdered in 43. Herod had to quell rebellions in Palestine. Civil wars were general across Arabia and Asia. Empires and states allover the known world began disintegrating. From 10 B.C. to 70 A.D. chaos reigned every· where. The Golden Age of Rome was short. It marked the climax of her greatness and the turning point in her 100-year history. When Octavius returned victorious from Egypt after making that country a Roman province, the senate bestowed upon him the title of Augustus, and Rome officially became a monarchy. As it remained warm, Rome continued her conquests, subduing all of Spain, the southwest German province of Raetia, then the eastern province of Pannonia (Austria). By the end of the warm phase, or very close to it, rebellions began breaking out again. and Octavius tightened the reins of government, assuming the title of Pontifex Maximus. The severe oppressions of Herod in Palestine led to a revolt in that province. By 10 B.C. it was turning cold and at 4 B.C. occurred that incomparable event of history the birth of Christ. The literature of the Roman Golden Age at first followed the organismic, classical pattern, but in the case of Ovid particularly, it turned in the direction of the cold phase romantic pattern. Horace was philosophically and moralistically inclined; a romantic in the sense that Wordsworth and Goethe have been called romantic (very inaccurately and with little regard for the historic trends in literature), but quite unlike that other kind of romanticism as seen in Robert Burns and Longfellow. Virgil, the oldest of the three, reflected more clearly the spirit of subordination that always developed in harmony with the trend toward strong government. He expressed the nobleness in human affairs and in great institutions together with the mysteries of the unseen world. All this is typically warm. Ovid, the youngest, was the most descriptive of the three and reproduced the light-hearted gaiety and brilliant fancy of a nascent romantic spirit among the people. This is a trend toward the pattern that prevails during cold times.· Life is no longer subordinated to reflection and serious purpose; reverence is gone and with it all sense of mystery and majesty. This is the phase we are now irr, in 19S0. And thus it is that the poet mirrors the culture pattern of the day. The transition from the warm to the cold phase is nicely exemplified in the transition from Virgil and Horace to Ovid. Part 12 0f 30

Compare other years with 2008. ICE PACK http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh

IT LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTH POLE WILL GET RECORD ICE FORMATION AGAIN FOR THE 2008 - SEASON. STATIONS ARE REPORTING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND WINDS ALOFT ARE BELOW NORMAL. SEA ICE FORMATION IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THE NORTH POLE IS ALSO ABOVE AVERAGE IN TERMS OF ICE PACK COMPARED TO THE LAST 9 YEARS.THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW YEARS AS THE ARCTIC AND THE ANTARCTIC SEA CURRENTS ARE GOING BACK TO NORMAL IN TERMS OF SEA ICE PRESSURE BEING STABLE NOW.GLOBAL WARMING WILL HAVE LITTLE AFFECT THIS YEAR ON THE ICE PACK. SOURCE... ICEBERG

South Pole ice cap for March 15th 2008. http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/antarctic.jpg

North Pole polar ice cap for March 15th 2008. http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/arctic.jpg

the coldest and hottest temperture for the week ending march 14th 2008. The week's hottest temperature was 111.2 degrees Fahrenheit (44.0 degrees Celsius) at Kosti, Sudan. The week's coldest temperature was minus 77.6 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 60.9 degrees Celsius) at the U.S. Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station.

CLIMATE (100-50 B.C.) This period began with a 15-year cold-dry period in which the l00-year cycle ended. The transition to the warm-wet phase was a very pronounced one, ending in a strong warm-wet maximum that was interrupted in the middle by a few years of drought. After the drought there was another strong revival in rainfall and a rise in temperature. It seems quite reasonable to assume from the evidence that this warm-wet phase, as a whole, was the strongest in 200 years, or since the time of Ptolemaic Egypt around 280 B.C. According to Brooks, a British climatologist, the first century B.C. was definitely a very wet one. After 80 B.C. the California sequoias grew the fastest in 200 years, indicating a strong warm-wet period. Huntington believes that Owen's Lake in California was very high at this time. It is quite evident that a prosperous civilization sprang up in Central America. Prosperity returned not only to the stronger civilizations of the world, but to the minor ones as well. For example, the Suevi (Swiss) in Germany developed a kingdom under Ariovistas about 75 B.C., which forced the Gauls to form a union against him. It has been said before that imperial vigor can hardly develop in the absence of economic prosperity, a nd wherever the facts are known this is always what has happened. Economic prosperity can hardly occur unless rainfall and temperature combined to produce a series of good growing seasons. Reports from Britain dated 72 B.C. indicate storminess in that area. The dry years from 65 to 60 B.C. stirred up several migrations over wide areas of the earth. A tribe in western Turkistan called the Yueh-chi moved south into Bactria; Scythians moved into India, settling in the Punjab and the provinces of Katharwar and Gujerat. At the same time Persia was overrun by Turanians. According to Briton, 70 to 60 B.C. was severely dry in England and Ireland. This agrees with the story told by the California trees at 65 B.C. During this dry period the Gauls were so troublesome that finally Caesar determined to conquer them. In 56 B.C., according to Caesar, there was a bad storm in Britain. This is close to the strong tree maximum of 58 B.C., and probably belonged to a world-wide sequence of rainy years. The drought ran its course, rainfall recovered and was apparently good from about 63 to 56 B.C. Between 55 and 50 more droughts occurred. The evidence for these droughts comes from four different continental areas; California, Europe, Central Asia, and India. This is the position for hot droughts in the 100-year pattern. According to Parker, between 55 and 50 B.C. there were several droughts in Central Asia. While Caesar reported bad storms in England in 56 and 55, by 54 a widespread general drought had developed over western Europe and Britain, so severe that his army, in winter quarters, had to be separated into small scattered units in order to secure sufficient food. Since there were no reports of excessive cold (and the chances are that there would have been, had it been cold) we may assume that the winter temperatures were mild, and that the droughts were part of a warm-dry climatic phase. Still further evidence is found in another widespread outburst of migrations. The Iapodes moved into Dalmatia in 52 B.C. At 50 B.C. the Huns were travelling again; this time moving westward from Mongolia in large numbers. According to Huntington, the date 50 B.C. centered in a severe drought and famine period in China. These famines were especially tragic in 48 B.C. in the four provinces of Shansi, Honan, Shantung, and Chihli. Ponds, lakes, reservoirs and gardens, owned by the rich were lent to the poor. Then, when it did begin to rain it came in such floods that grain and money had to be imported from other regions to save the people in Kwan Sung province. After events like these one can look for a sharp drop in world temperatures. The California trees point now to just such a drop but not to a major cold phase of the l00-year cycle. They point to a sharp break only in the warm phase, because the tree minimum was not a long time, and it was located between two maxima as close together as 58 and 23 B.C. (Recall that when the different lines of evidence were being discussed earlier 1n the volume, it was pointed out that the distribution of international versus civil war battles could have been used to locate the warm and cold periods of history. The positions of all the known dated battles in history that we have so far been able to locate in the literature have been plotted against the world climate curve and will be published in a forthcoming volume.) Since the behavior of primitive tribes is being followed In relation to climatic fluctuations, especially their migrations, if. can be mentioned in passing that during the 40's and 30's B.C. the Romans were constantly having trouble with Celtic Gaul. The Bellovici revolted in 46, the Allabroges in 44, and the Aquiani and Morini in 33 and 30 B.C. These revolts were attended by migrations. There is no record of consequential revolts attending the earlier migrations of the 60's and 50's. Some historians believe that the great migrations of history were for the most part caused by internal strife. At best, internal strife could cause but a certain fraction of such migrations and even then could hardly have been more than a contributing cause, not the main cause. In the absence of any evidence of civil war, the migrations of the 60's and 50's could hardly have been caused by factors rather than dwindling grass and water supplies and a succession of crop failures. The suspicion that the cold period that followed after 50 B.C. was worldwide receives substantiation from Russian Turkistan where, in 36 B.C., it was so cold that hordes of people perished. Isolated reports like these are almost never out of place in the l00-year cycle apparently for the reason that they so seldom occur out of place. Ordinarily we have not gone into the evidence regarding the weather trends and we do so now only because this was one of the very important periods in history. HISTORY (100-50 B.C.): This period was one of the most crucial in the long history of the Roman Empire. Great social and political changes were under way. The warm period from 80 to 10 B.C., with its long cold interruption from 50 to 30, marked the apex of Roman history. While it did not mark the period of her greatest physical expansion, it was the period of her greatest vitality, leadership, and cultural achievement. It was also the turning point in Roman history. After the Augustan Age, Rome declined steadily throughout the remainder of her history as an Empire. While Rome was building up to the climax of her history during the current nation building era, Tartars and other Asiatic peoples were shaping up strong empires on the order of the Khans of the Middle Ages. Ever since the days of the Gracchi around ]25 B.C., Rom; had been divided into two hostile camps, the aristocratic and the democratic parties (which from time to time divided within themselves). In the Gracchinn struggles, the reactionaries had been victorious. During the interval 100-50 B.C., however, there came to the front a young general and champion of the people, Marius. At the same time another famous general, Sulla, was the leader of the aristocratic party. Both generals had large followings. During the first twenty years of the century, Rome along with the rest of tile known world, was torn in civil war. Some of the, Italian cities seceded, until citizenship was granted to them. Between 118 and 82, Marius and Sulla fought it out and Marius was defeated. In 82 B.C., Sulla returning from the East, helped cruel vengeance upon the followers of Marius when he reached Italy. Then Sulla declared himself a dictator and instituted a reign of terror (notice that it was turning warm). Then came Pompey and Caesar. Pompey stood for the aristocracy, and Caesar stood for the democratic party. When Pontus became too powerful in the East, Pompey was sent against them with absolute power over the eastern legions. Pontus, Syria, Cappadocia and other regions were converted into Roman provinces. Caesar was becoming eminent in the West. The situation was loaded with dynamite. At first a reciprocal agreement was made between Caesar, Pompey, and Crassus (the First Triumvirate). Crassus was killed in battle, which left Caesar and Pompey. For a time, friendly relations existed between them. It was upon Caesar's return from his conquest of Gaul and Britain that he decided on precipitating civil war by his crossing of the Ruhicon. Pompey was defeated. Caesar then conquered Egypt, and there met Cleopatra. The majority of Romes most brilliant scholars (of which there were not many) other than the poets who came a little later, flourished from 100 to 50 B.C. Early in the century there were: Varro, agriculturalist, author of several ency· clopedic works and a student of rhetoric; Rosidonius, Stoic philosopher (recall that Stoicism is cold); Cassius Dionysius, botanist and author of a materia medica; and King Mithridates of Pontus who was a reknowned student of poisons. Specialties in limited fields like these, are, as we have seen all along, typical of cold periods. Note how the pattern of scholarship changed as it turned warm. There was now Asclepiades, a famous Greek physician, who was author of a new approach to medicine called functionalism (an emphasis on forces and processes as opposed to anatomy and structure),. Emphasis on functionalism is a warm phase trend. Asclepiades opposed that he thought was in his predesessors an overemphasis upon anatomy. Themison was another physician of the time, founder of "Methodism," which was not a religion, but as, the term implied, an emphasis on method. This was another approach to functionalism. There was the philosopher Andronicus of Rhodes, who followed Aristotle's organic theories of life as opposed to the mechanistic and materialistic theories of the Hedonists and Stoics of the preceding cold period. Cicero, the orator, was also a great scholar and believed in the organismic as opposed to the mechanistic conception of life. And finally, there was the greatest scholar of them all, the philosophical poet Lucretius, who wrote a long poem, "De Herum Natura" which has been variously interpreted since then as mechanistic and organismic. It is in reality a mixture of the two patterns, but Lucretius possessed the sweeping understandings typical of the warm phase mind, and followed the warm, pattern in the great breadth of his interests and in the sweeping character of his deductions. Among other things, he anticipated a most astonishing manner the modern theory of relativity in its logical aspects. Such insights belong to the warm pattern. PART 11 OF 30

CLIMATE (150-100 B.C.): The 100-year cycle that began at 170 and lasted until 90 B.C. was, like its predecessor, broken up into short phases and again as a consequence there were no great waves of nation building. However, peoples allover the world, like the Romans, were building up slowly to a climax of power. In the process, class struggle increased and during the cold phases,. civil wars were becoming more and more organized and bloody. In Rome these conflicts reached a peak in the wars between Caesar and Pompey, then between Octavius and Antony. Meanwhile, commerce expanded and weather accumulated. The nation building climax occurred on a strong climatic shift from cold to warm following the date 80 B.C. (Chart 11.) The present cycle suffered a long break between two warm periods, from 140 to 120 B.C. It could quite as well be said that there were two major cycles rather than one, and that the first of the two ended at 130 B.C. The only reason for not calling it two cycles is the practical one of trying to reduce the long-time picture as a whole to its simplest terms. HISTORY (150-100 B.C.): The autocratic-imperialistic pattern On the one hand, and the democratic pattern on the other, alternated with the short climatic fluctuations. Rome rapidly added to her empire, but with the advent of each warm period democracy suffered a serious loss until it vanished altogether. The nobles found it easier to control affairs against the will of the people as it became warmer, and the farmer class was in dire straights. The great landed estate worked by slaves was taking the place of the small farm worked by the independent farmer. The farmer left the country for the city in order to find employment, or he joined the army. During the cold periods, slaves who had taken the places of the farmers on the farms revolted. During the cold period that centered on 130 B.C., a famous attempt was made by the Brachi brothers to restore democracy to the Roman Empire. The attempts were unsuccessful. One of the brothers, Tiberius, was slain in the civil war in 133 and the other, Caius, was murdered by his enemies in 121. The struggle was between the democrats and the aristocrats, and as it turned warm the aristocrats won. The Roman people took sides, some joining the reactionaries and others the liberals. But in the struggle, Rome eventually changed first to a dictatorship and then to a monarchy. Had it remained cold long enough, the course of Roman history might well have been radically different. The longer the very rich aristocracy held the reins of the government, the more corrupt it became. This fact is illustrated by the bribery and corruption associated with the so-called Jagurthan War. Final victory was assured for Rome only when Marrius, an honest statesman, was put in command of the legions. But later, as a champion of Democracy and good government, he met his death. Among the States that revived temporarily during the short warm periods were Parthia and Bactria which were engaged in a war between themselves. Parthia was a large country southeast of the southern tip of the Caspian Sea, and Bactria was east of Parthia, close to India. Greece was now part of Rome and both during this interval and the preceding one, Greek culture--its thinking and its art--found its way into Italy and India. Cold periods are times of cultural mixing and borrowing. We are heading into such a period now and we can expect our stores to handle increasing amounts of foreign cultural products, especially of the arts and crafts. Already we are driving more English and French cars in this country, by far, than at any other time in our history. The Third and final Punic War occurred in 151-146 B.C. On a small scale, it corresponded to World War II in that it reflected the moral decline both of the Romans and of the Carthaginians, but especially of the Romans. Carthage was razed and many of its inhabitants were sold into slavery (warm and dry). The benevolence of the Republic toward its satellites and conquered peoples vanished as the spirit of democracy waned. PART 10 OF 30

CLIMATE (200-150 B.C.): This is the coldest 100-year cycle that has yet been encountered. Since the last cold-dry climax at 235 B.C., there have been no large warm-wet peaks. Consistent with this fact is the lack of any great era of nation building, although Rome has gradually been extending her conquests. It is typical for strong nations to colonize during cold times and this means coming into conflict with primitive tribes in uncivilized areas. Ordinarily, the resulting fighting is desultory, but during nation building time, this kind of warfare reaches a climax along the international wars, because the primitive tribes unify into federations at such times and are not only more aggressive in spirit, but militarily they are more powerful. Rome did a good deal of this type of expanding during cold times, as England did also over many centuries. During the last long cold phase (the 19th century) the European countries partitioned Africa, Russia spread across Siberia, and we spread westward across the North American continent. The motive behind this type of expansion is interest in exploration and commerce, rather than political domination. HISTORY (200-150 B.C.): Even though the warm phases were now running short, the culture pattern turned warm when the time came, although not to the extent that it would have done had the climatic shifts been stronger. During the long and severe cold-dry period that centered on 170 B.C., Roman troops stationed in the outer provinces, as in Epirus, were out of control; the Syrians plundered in Palestine, not as organized armies carrying out a political plan, but as armed mobs. This is land piracy. The Greek City States were in a sorry plight. Sparta was "corrupt, self-indulgent, without loyalty or religion, down to the swineherd." Watch for the numerous evidences of a similar type of decline during long cold periods in other centuries and in other parts of the world. All this is typical of the anarchy and dissolution that prevailed during long, cold periods when strong governments of any kind are lacking. It is the type of situation which makes for a "Dark Age." Recall that during the two previous cold periods the culture pattern turned mechanistic as it always does. In one of them there flourished the famous Epicurus and his pain-pleasure theory of life (called Hedonism), and a school of philosophers known as the Stoics; then in the next cold period Stoicism revived again. Greek sculpture underwent a significant change during these cold periods. It lost for the most part, its original dignity, force and reserve; it turned away from gods to nature, i.e., to portraits of actual people including children. The familiar Laocoon group with the father and sons struggling with the serpents reflects the violence and action that crowded this per iod of Greek history. (The time between Alexander the Great and the annexation of Greece to Rome in 155 B.C. is known as the Hellenistic Period of Greek history.) The Fighting Gladiator is another example of the realistic, action-packed art of the period. as is also Athena Overcoming the Giant. This title speaks for itself. In all of these works we see the chaotic vitality and disorganization of cold times, as well as the prevalence of sentimental, superficial feelings that so often stultify romantic movements in art. Notice from the blue culture items in Chart 9 how consistently the scholarship of this period followed the mechanistic cold phase pattern geography, grammar, agriculture, the weather," comic poetry, and so on. (The emphasis on geography during cold times happens again and again, as we have already pointed out.) Before the anarchy and civil strife broke out, civilizations the world over apparently went through the expected climax in despotism and decadence during the hot drought phase of the cycle. There are some important differences between the behavior of peoples when it is cold and wet and their behavior when it is cold and dry. People are more stable and tolerant when it is wet than when it is dry. Watch for the prevalence of anarchy, piracy, and migrations when the long, cold periods get dry. These are blue items numbered in yellow. When it is cold and wet, more of the items will be concerned with democratic reforms. PART 9 OF 30