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Observations du 17 au 23 juil. 2023

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Les veilles d'orages violents sont sorties pour les régions de la Montéregie/Estrie/Beauce


Mesoscale Discussion 1614
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1111 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

   Areas affected...Eastern New York...Northern and Western New England

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 181611Z - 181815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong to locally severe storms are
   expected this afternoon.  It is unclear if coverage of storms will
   warrant a severe thunderstorm watch.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies
   across eastern NY and much of New England, where dewpoints are in
   the mid-upper 60s.  This warm/humid air mass will yield afternoon
   MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg and rather steep low-level lapse
   rates.  A shortwave trough over western PA will provide large scale
   forcing for ascent across the region, leading to widely scattered
   thunderstorm development.  Forecast soundings show that the strength
   of the winds aloft and thermodynamic parameters look favorable for a
   risk of damaging winds in the stronger storms that can form. 
   However, most recent CAM solutions suggest that coverage of storms
   will be somewhat limited.  Satellite/radar trends will be monitored
   through the early afternoon, with a severe thunderstorm watch
   issuance possible.


Edited by tornado_master
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