Jump to content

Activité tropicale 2019


Recommended Posts

Si il y a déja un sujet, S.V.P. transférez.

 

.FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 118W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
8 TO 9 FT IN S TO SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
12N100W 1008 MB. WITHIN 150 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF LOW WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 06N90W
TO 10N89W TO 12N92W TO 13N97W TO 10N104W TO 07N100W TO 06N90W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
14N104W 1005 MB. WITHIN 180 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF LOW WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM NE SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL. WITHIN 90
NM W SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jun 23 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred
miles southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are associated with
a tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system during the next several days,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the
week while the system moves west-northwestward away from the coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ça s'organise - Il n'y a que l'EURO qui fait rien avec ça...

 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jun 23 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next few days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the middle of the week while the
system moves west-northwestward away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Jun 24 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Satellite imagery indciates that a broad area of low pressure has
formed in association with the tropical wave located a few hundred
miles south of the southern coast of Mexico, and that the
accompanying shower activity is showing signs of organization.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form within the next few days while the system moves
west-northwestward away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Beven

post-515-0-50957500-1561426027_thumb.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Donc on a Alvin...

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 14.7N 109.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 14.7N 111.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 15.0N 113.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 15.7N 115.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 16.4N 117.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 17.4N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1200Z 18.0N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Brennan

post-515-0-22558700-1561566120_thumb.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Alvin ouragan 1

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 17.4N 115.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 18.7N 117.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 20.1N 119.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 20.9N 120.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 21.5N 121.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Cette fois ci et comme le mentionnait Erick, ça commence sur la terre ferme; enfin "commence"... façon de parler...

 

Bonjour Bruno !

 

La trajectoire de Barry selon le dernier Euro.... Encore chapeau à ce modèle d'avoir vu cette possible météo bien avant le ''nouveau super GFS'' et bien d'autres.

post-204-0-26346700-1562621664_thumb.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

En fait il va passer suffisamment de temps sur l'eau pour produire un ouragan avec plus de 50 centimètres de pluie pour bien des endroits sur la côte.

 

La circulation sur la côte du pacifique va peut être le garder au large un bon moment ...

 

Développement dans 5 jours ;  80%

Edited by Pooram
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bon matin !!!! Les vestiges de Barry venant  à nous ???  Faudra voir !

 

J'ai mis un (?) au sens si cela tenait la route comme possibilité, car c'est bel et bien Barry.

post-204-0-81029600-1562670290_thumb.png

Edited by Mizar
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bon matin !!!! Les vestiges de Barry venant à nous ??? Faudra voir !

 

J'ai mis un (?) au sens si cela tenait la route comme possibilité, car c'est bel et bien Barry.

La meteo me surprend des fois... Et en passant je ne savais même pas qu'on avait déjà eu Andréa...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

La meteo me surprend des fois... Et en passant je ne savais même pas qu'on avait déjà eu Andréa...

Moi non plus. Pour nos archives, Andrea a seulement atteint le stade de "subtropical storm". Il a été de courte durée et est passé relativement inaperçu. Quant à Alvin, c'était dans le Pacifique est.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...