iceberg

Bonjour Stefano, It's a matter of weather patterns and how they establish themselves. Some years are active, some are not. It is just the natural variability of weather in the Southeast or tornado alley. We have had several situations in which the atmospheric conditions were just right to produce strong storms with tornadoes. Atmospheric conditions that produce tornadoes are essentially the same everywhere because the laws of physics apply universally. There are differences in how the essential ingredients to produce a tornado might come together in Georgia versus the Southern Plains, but the ingredients are the same. Because those ingredients are slightly more common in tornado alley, they get more tornadoes. While higher temperatures could increase the number of thunderstorms, which are needed to trigger tornadoes, they also would tend to push the storm systems too far north to form some twisters. La Nina, the cooling of parts of the Central Pacific that is the flip side El Nino, was a factor in the increased activity in 2008 - especially in February, a record month for tornado activity - but it can't explain what is happening now. Some years are active and some not and not even weather experts dont know why !!

Thats right folks noaa lost all that ice and the truth is coming out also on how much cooler the earth will get and that news will come out next week in a report noaa will make and why it made these silly forcasts based on incorrect satalite data and faulty model information. voici le lien: http://iceagenow.com/We_overlooked_193000_...iles_of_ice.htm

Quite possible Montreal could recive between 15cm to 20cm depends how far west secondary storm will develop.

I think this will lead to more snowstorms for Southern Quebec as the polar jet stream will wobble between the Canadian and USA border while the pacific jet will sometimes collide with the polar jet. Temps will be normal to just below normal for March and April.

VOICI LE LIEN POUR LE MISE A JOUR POUR EL NINO / LA NINA. LA NINA VA ETRE LA POUR LE PRINTEMPS. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/anal...e/sstanim.shtml

It was written by Jesse Ferrell (Weathermatrix). I think it gives a good insight in the models and there is always space to improve. Just like the first week of feb, the big storm the models were forcasting and i too was taken by surprise by the turnaround of the models going crazy. Ca c`est le lien: http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs.a..._inaccurate.asp

THERE WERE SOME HIGH WINDS ON DEC 8TH MONTREAL AIRPORT HAD A PEAK GUST OF 60K/H AND MORE CITIES HAD HIGHER GUSTS AS A MAJOR COLD FRONT SWEPT SOUTHERN QUEBEC THAT DAY AS TEMP WENT DOWN TO THE -20c.

ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE A TRACK FAR ENOUGH EAST SO THAT IMPACT ON FORECAST AREA WOULD BE MINIMAL. LATEST GFS AND ENSEMBLE RUNS OF GFS INDICATE LOW WOULD TRACK A BIT FURTHER WEST. IF YOU LOOK AT OTTAWA`S FORCAST, ENVIROMENT CANADA STILL LOOKS AT THE STORM MOVING MORE WEST SO ITS STILL UP IN THE AIR. WHAT I THINK IS WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST, STORM WILL BE TOSSED MORE WEST OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE RUN TAKING IT TO JUST WEST OF CAPE COD THEN MOVING NORTH TO MAINE.AS FOR PRECIP WELL I DONT LIKE TO FORCAST THEM THIS EARLY .IM QUITE SURE THE FORCAST WILL CHANGE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

This is what i think will happen as the low deepens near the Delmarva Peninsula to southern New Jersey arctic air will start to invade southern Quebec slowly as the low moves up the coast heavy wet snow will form and then as the temperture starts to turn colder the snow will be start to look more powdery. So i think this will be a all snow event for the Montreal area.

Well Maxime i really hate to say this but it could all be to global warming as a factor in Australia. They have not had enough rain the past 8 years.I know for a fact that Australia in the past say 400 to 600 years ago had a similar trend of heat and dryness, now how long will it last well its anybodys guess.

Well not only is it very hot in Southern Australia but the people can not even go swimming because there are too many sharks around a 400% jump from last year. And to add insult, people have to run on the sand because the sand is to hot to walk on !! Current hottest place in Australia: Avalon Airport Vic 45.2°C 10:28PM EST This information was aired live on radio news AM 800. and on RDI. Yesterday Adelaide experienced its hottest day in 70 years, reaching 45.7C and the weather bureau has forecast that the length of the heatwave could be a record breaker if temperatures continue to soar.

Well i just hope this comes out, true classic nor easter, perfect postion for heavy snow for the Montreal area and high winds....

OBSERVATIONS CURRENT from Victoria state Australia CEDUNA 46.0c LE PLUS CHAUD EN MOMENT ADELAIDE 44.9c WHYALLA 44.7c historic January extremes Hottest Day Oodnadatta Ap 50.7°c Coldest Day Mount Lofty 10.0°c Hottest Night Arkaroola35.5°c Coldest Night Coonawarra0.2°c Wettest 24hr Arkaroola 182.4mm ALSO NOTE MELBOURNE IS AT 42.5c comme regg said its hot c`est chaud la bas.

Un seul "n" à Tyrone. Des chaleurs pareilles arrivent tous les ans en Australie, je sais ce que j'avance. Il n'y a absolument rien d'exceptionnel. A total fire ban has been declared for most of Victoria and emergency crews remain on alert as the state gears up for the hottest conditions in a century.

These are maximum temperature for Australia: DARKEST REDS ARE HIGH 40c to low 50c in valleys. Current highest temp in Australia: Cummins, SA 45.2°C TIME 8:29PM EST

The current, known as the sub polar gyre, has weakened in the past in connection with certain phases of a large-scale atmospheric pressure system known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). But the NAO has switched phases twice in the 1990s, while the subpolar gyre current has continued to weaken. Now why is Europe having such cold temperatures and even down in the deserts and northern africa are having chilly temperatures. Im just wondering does it have to do with the current getting weak. I smell something fishy hear and im sure we will be hearing lots more on this topic this year.

Snow covers UAE mountain, first time in history 25 Jan 09 - - For the first time in the desert country's history, snow blanketed the peak of Jais Mountain in the northern United Arab Emirate of Ras Al Khaimah Sunday. So rare was the event that one lifelong resident said the local dialect had no word for it. Ras Al Khaimah's government said plans were in the works to capitalize on the country's only mountainous region by building a ski resort. Sunday's snowfall was only the second time in recorded history that it has snowed in the emirate, with temperatures dropping two degrees below zero as 20 cm (eight inches) of snow accumulated in some places. The sight up there this morning was totally unbelievable, with the snow-capped mountain and the entire area covered with fresh, dazzling white snow, said a helicopter pilot who flew over the area. It is still freezing cold up there and there are chances that it might snow again tonight. Limited snowfall has been recorded on the mountain in 2004, but for the first time in its history the mountain's peak was fully covered, the WAM news agency reported.

Victoria prepares for Ash Wednesday conditions. A total fire ban has been declared for most of Victoria and emergency crews remain on alert as the state gears up for the hottest conditions in a century. If the weather bureau's predictions are correct the state is about to swelter through four consecutive days of 40 degrees Celsius or higher. Melbourne is expecting a 41-degree high, with 44 forecast for Swan Hill and Horsham. The weather bureau is warning there's little relief in sight. Senior forecaster, Scott Williams, says the temperature could reach 43 in the city tomorrow. "We have had the 43 on New Year's Eve two years ago and a 44 back in 2005, but just a one-off day," he said. "Now the thing that sets this heatwave apart is that there are several consecutive days expected to top 40 degrees through to Saturday." Electricity officials say there's expected to be unprecedented demand over the coming days, but the state is unlikely to run out of power. Victoria's Chief Health Officer, Dr John Carnie, says people must keep themselves hydrated, especially the elderly, infants and pregnant women. He says heat exhaustion and heat stroke are a serious threat. "The worrying thing is if it stays hot at night it doesn't give a chance for people's houses and so on to cool down," he says The Premier, John Brumby, was briefed by emergency services yesterday as they prepare to deal with the rising temperatures. The Ambulance Service says the heatwave could prove deadly. Victorians are being urged to prepare for the possibility of bushfires and to minimise the health risks of the heat. Ambulance Victoria operations manager Paul Holman says it is feared the conditions will claim lives. "This is unprecedented; we know what happens when we get a couple of hot days, particularly with the elderly and the chronically ill," he said. "Experience from overseas has shown that the longer these heat waves go and particularly with a lack of reduction in temperatures overnight, that just exacerbates chronic illnesses." Victorian authorities are putting on a united front as they prepare for the scorching conditions. CFA chief officer Russell Rees says they plan to tackle any fire hard, at the earliest opportunity. Authorities have warned there are similarities to the conditions of Ash Wednesday in 1983. - ABC © ABC 2008 South-east states brace for soaring temperatures Emergency crews are preparing for extremely hot weather conditions today across Victoria, South Australia and parts of south-west New South Wales. Ambulance and fire crews are on high alert as temperatures are forecast to soar into the mid-40s across the country's south-east. Adelaide is bracing for a top of 44 degrees Celsius - beating yesterday's five-year high of 43.2. Melbourne is expecting a 41-degree high, with 44 forecast for Swan Hill and Horsham. Mark Anolak from the weather bureau says the hot weather will not go away any time soon. "At this stage the high pressure system really doesn't want to move so we'll see these conditions continue right through to the weekend at least," he said. Unprecedented demand is expected on electricity grids, but Victorian officials say power will not run out. There is also a high fire risk in Tasmania for the rest of this week, with temperatures into the 30s. Firefighters at Rossarden in Tasmania's north-east are racing against time to secure containment lines around a large bushfire, ahead of an expected tough day today. Incident controller Wayne Richards says special patrols will be on the look-out for spot fires. "We'll continue on with some burning and strengthening our containment lines and we've got a small reserve of firefighting units that will be in a patrol mode that can hopefully respond to any spot fires that may occur," he said. Victoria's chief health officer, Dr John Carnie, says people must keep themselves hydrated - especially the elderly, infants and pregnant women. He says heat exhaustion and heat stroke are a serious threat. "The worrying thing is if it stays hot at night it doesn't give a chance for people's houses and so on to cool down," he said. The state duty manager for the South Australian Ambulance Service, Andrew Albury, says the hot weather is likely to put extra pressure on health staff "During the evening as a lot more people get out and about, we have concerns of excess alcohol consumption which can actually increase dehydration," he said. - ABC © ABC 2008

Rejean , what im trying to say is that you have to look at both sides. Les deux cote. And sometimes you dont agree with the subject which is fine, and i call that a one track mind, im also a one track mind, nothing wrong with that. Its human impulsion. Well, Iceberg, you seem to present only one side of the coin as you say. Now, can we get back to the title of the subject which is the conference in Poland. This subject has become highjacked and will be closed if it keeps going the way it is. The polish conference please.

''one track mind'' En as-tu d'autres des insultes à faire à tout le monde ici. Rejean i never mentioned names when i said one track mind but i guess you answered the question, are you one of them?. And if you are its ok because its not a insult its your opinion which i respect.

More global warming news, i guess its 50 /50. http://tigger.uic.edu/htbin/cgiwrap/bin/ne...2389&fromhome=1

HERE IS ANOTHER REPORT THAT ITS GETTING HOTTER THE SOUTH POLE OF COURSE !! http://uwnews.org/article.asp?articleID=46448

Oceans are cooling since 1998, the big el nino and more of el ninas are popping up. Of course a piece of Walkins ice shelf is set to fall down the ocean. So whats the big deal it happened before and will happen again in the future. Some readers in this forum have a one track mind, they dont take in account that nature always will balance its self out for the earths climate system.I said it before and ill say it again the earths climate has cycles and we are in one now which is a cooling period and it will continue for some time.There will be melting periods for the north and south pole thats for sure. Remeber one thing the earth is over 6 billion years old, and we are debating that the earth is getting hot, or getting cold, what im trying to say is that for now its cooling off and in 10 years time more or less you might have a warmer period.Im not saying that global warming is wrong but its not peaking yet to the temp of computer generated results that were being forcasted in 2002, far from it. Here is another link from Nasa on the oceans. http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/OceanCooling/

Now over 650 top scientists say global warming is a hoax !!! What more proof does the world need.If the arctic sea ice this year does not break new records like some people say that it will, i will come after them like bees after honey.Ill make sure the newspapers know whats really going on.I was speaking with some of my friends at Enviroment Canada, i will not mention any names but they feel too that global warming is IS NOT REALLY HAPPENING. http://iceagenow.com/Top_Scientists_say_gl...ng_is_a_lie.htm

New records were also set in Maine USA, the cold snap did not affect us only. In New England, Maine was coldest in Aroostook County where it reached -44F at Clayton Lake, -48F at Ninemile Bridge and -50F at Big Black River, the last two USGS stations. -50F would be the new All-Time State Record Low for Maine, beating out Van Burens -48F set in 1925. It would also tie the coldest ever for all of New England set in Bloomfield, Vermont in December 1933. This cold air fresh from Alaska and Northwest Canada meant business. Let us see if this record holds up in this new era when cold records are not PC. (AP) http://www.erh.noaa.gov/car/News_Items/200...-16_item001.htm