iceberg

Enviroment Canada or Noaa when they issue a seasonal forcast they do not change it before the next season starts 90 days apart.

PAS DE EL NINO CETTE HIVER !!!! Temps will still be in normal mode in the pacific basin by November and below normal by january. Winters of this calibre bring extreme temp swings for southern Quebec. If i would take a guess this winter it would be like the winter of 2002-03 for temps only and for precip normal to above normal towards the end of winter. This post has been edited by iceberg on August 15, 2008 01:48 am I made this forcast in August 2008.

OK, donne-moi ta facon de faire pour une prévision comme celle-là? Je ne dis pas qu'elle est mauvaise, mais explique comment t'as pu arriver avec une telle solution. Pour le début de l'hiver on pense la meme chose, mais c'est en février que nos 2 prévisions se différencient. Je veux juste savoir ta démarche. Ma prévision Fin décembre au 15-25 février = plus chaud que la normale Fin février à fin mars = plus froid que la normal Pour les précipitations, tout dépend du storm track, mais si on voit arriver un s-e ridge puissant, on risque d'etre sous les normale précip. durant ce temps A.Theunissen tell me why you have changed your forcast now that Feburary and March will be colder. Thats what i forcasted in November . Try to stick with one forcast and not change from day to day. MODÉRATION: ON GARDE LE RESPECT DES AUTRES SVP.

Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 916 PM EST WED DEC 10 2008 ...POTENTIAL WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... .AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE HEAVIEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT MAY MIX WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. PERSONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT TRAVEL. NYZ028>031-034-035-VTZ001>012-016>019-111100- /O.CON.KBTV.WS.A.0010.081211T1800Z-081212T1800Z/ EASTERN CLINTON-SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN- WESTERN CLINTON-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-GRAND ISLE- WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE- CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND- WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON- EASTERN RUTLAND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PLATTSBURGH...STAR LAKE... SARANAC LAKE...TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA...LAKE PLACID... PORT HENRY...TICONDEROGA...ALBURGH...SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS... NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...BURLINGTON...JOHNSON...STOWE... ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES...BRADFORD... RANDOLPH...RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION... ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON... EAST WALLINGFORD...KILLINGTON 916 PM EST WED DEC 10 2008 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON CONTINUES THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 OR MORE INCHES WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK...THE ENTIRE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND THE REMAINDER OF VERMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX IN WITH THE SNOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY. A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND PRODUCTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON THAT ARE SPECIFICALLY DESIGNED TO KEEP YOU INFORMED DURING POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS WEATHER SITUATIONS. Forcast totals for this storm for Montreal i would say 15 to 20 cm tops. I really dont like to forcast storm totals but this is what i think will happen.

montreal-est Granules de glace -7.3c 10:09 pm montreal-east ice pellets -7.3c 10:09 pm http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/...cation=USVT0147

Montreal-Est Neige avec Grésil mêlé de Pluie Verglaçante -8.2c 9:04 pm Montreal -East Snow mixed with Ice Pellets and Freezing Rain -8.2c 9:04 pm http://www.accuweather.com/enhanced-radar....ther&traveler=0 http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/...cation=USVT0147

Montreal-Est Neige avec Grésil mêlé de Pluie Verglaçante -8.7c 8:53 pm Montreal -East Snow mixed with Ice Pellets and Freezing Rain -8.7c 8:53 pm http://www.accuweather.com/enhanced-radar....ther&traveler=0

montreal-est Généralement dégagé -20.1c 3:53 am montreal-east Mainly clear -20.1c 3:53 am

montreal-est Généralement dégagé -13.6c 9:02 pm montreal -east Mainly Clear -13.6c 9:02 pm

montreal-est neige faible -4.1c Températures à la baisse 4:52 pm montreal-east light snow -4.1c Temperature falling 4:52 pm http://www.accuweather.com/enhanced-radar....ther&traveler=0

montreal-est Nuageux avec éclaircies -3.3c 9:44 am montreal-east partly cloudy -3.3c 9:44 am

montreal-est Généralement nuageux 0.5c 5:53pm montreal-east mostly cloudy 0.5c 5:53pm

montreal-est Généralement nuageux 3.6c 3:50pm montreal-east Mostly Cloudy 3.6c 3:50pm

radar indicates cold air aloft over central laval moving south east toward montreal east and the reason behind the thunder.

montreal-est faible pluie avec orage 3.4c 6:02pm montreal-east light rain with thunder 3.4c 6:02pm

montreal-est Grésil avec pluie faible -0.2c 2:18am montreal-east ice pellets with light rain -0.2c 2:18am

montreal-est Neige faible -0.4c 11:01pm montreal-east light snow -0.4c 11:01pm

montreal-est Neige faible -0.2c 9:48pm montreal-east light snow -0.2c 9:48pm

montreal-est Nuageux 1.7c 5:54pm montreal-east cloudy 1.7c 5:54pm

montreal-est Bruine faible 2.2c 5.23pm

montreal-est Pluie faible 0.9c 7:46pm

montreal -est Neige légère 0.4c 3:35pm

montreal -est Neige légère -1.3c 10:45pm

des chances pour un nor easter ??? a 10 jours !!!!

in general ..... Globally October in most data bases maintained about the same level as September with one glaring exception, Hansens NASA GISS. There may be a second high value in the next few weeks, NOAA GHCN shares many of the same data points and adjustments or lack thereof will probably come in on the high side. Hadley Centre also will not report also for another week. It has remained more in line with the satellite in recent years. The data bases all have different base periods, which contribute to the relative differences. NASA uses the coldest base period 1951 to 1980, Hadley the second coldest 1961 to 1990, UAH and RSS MSU the warmest 1979 to 1998. It was mild in parts of southeast Europe and Asia in October. The arctic ice developed at a record pace in October, but snowcover was slow to increase until the last week. It has now quickly expanded to just above the normal for the hemisphere for the date. The plot of temperatures since 2002 is remarkable for the departures shown. NASA GISS is a full degree F warmer than the satellite measurements, which continue the downtrend of 0.2C since 2002. Even with the bogus warmth, GISS depicts a small downtrend.