Blizzard Posted July 13, 2023 Report Share Posted July 13, 2023 (edited) Effectivement, les conditions sont pas mal propices. Au niveau de la formation des cellules, le NAM 3 km et le HRRR s’entendent assez bien sur une ligne fin pm qui balaye tout le sud-ouest. Edited July 13, 2023 by Blizzard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted July 13, 2023 Report Share Posted July 13, 2023 (edited) Probabilité de tornade à 17h... Ce même modèle a très bien vu les tornades à l'ouest de Chicago hier. Edited July 13, 2023 by Zeus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave20 Posted July 13, 2023 Report Share Posted July 13, 2023 (edited) La ligne d'orages semble passer après le peak des indices mais quand même j'ai jamais vu un setup comme ça au Québec. Si une cellule pop devant le front elle sera très violente. Je me garde toujours une petite gêne et je parle rarement des orages sur le forum mais 2 bons setup en 2 jours, fallait en parler. Edited July 13, 2023 by dave20 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RafaelS Posted July 13, 2023 Report Share Posted July 13, 2023 il y a 51 minutes, Zeus a dit : Probabilité de tornade à 17h... Ce même modèle a très bien vu les tornades à l'ouest de Chicago hier. Où? Le sud du Québec? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snoreau Posted July 13, 2023 Report Share Posted July 13, 2023 il y a 30 minutes, RafaelS a dit : Où? Le sud du Québec? Laval-Montréal-Longueuil. + ou - 3,5 millions de personnes dans la zone 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RafaelS Posted July 13, 2023 Report Share Posted July 13, 2023 il y a 17 minutes, Snoreau a dit : Laval-Montréal-Longueuil. + ou - 3,5 millions de personnes dans la zone Je souhaite pas ça. C'est une chose une tornade dans un champ inhabité, pas dans une zone de 3,5 millions de personnes... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornado_master Posted July 13, 2023 Report Share Posted July 13, 2023 (edited) Ça y est... Veille de tornade émise par Environnement Canada pour tout le Sud du Québec a l'instant. Les indices tornadiques sont constantes depuis hier. Soyez vigilant. Edited July 13, 2023 by tornado_master 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
math423 Posted July 13, 2023 Report Share Posted July 13, 2023 Je me demande si nous ne serons pas plutôt en mode ligne de grains au final que supercellule. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornado_master Posted July 13, 2023 Report Share Posted July 13, 2023 Discussion sur la situation du côté américain: Mesoscale Discussion 1517 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 Areas affected...Portions of NY...VT...and far northern PA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 131558Z - 131800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds, hail, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will increase this afternoon. Watch issuance is likely. Parts of this area will be upgraded to Enhanced Risk (for severe wind gusts) with the 1630Z Day 1 Convective Outlook. DISCUSSION...Airmass destabilization is rapidly occurring across NY and vicinity as ample daytime heating has already warmed surface temperatures mostly into upper 70s and 80s. A rather moist low-level airmass is also present based on recent surface dewpoint observations and area 12Z soundings. Further heating of this moist airmass will likely lead to the development of around 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE along/ahead of a cold front. This front, coupled with large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough ejecting across the Northeast and southern Quebec, will likely foster robust thunderstorm development within the next couple of hours as parcels reach their LFCs. Recent VWPs from KENX and KCXX show a veering and strengthening wind profile with height through mid levels, with around 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear. This should provide sufficient updraft organization to support a mix of cellular and linear modes. Convection developing along the cold front is already beginning to show signs of deepening in far western NY. This trend should continue over the next couple of hours as the front moves eastward across NY. As low-level lapse rates become steep, scattered to numerous damaging downdraft winds will be a concern with any clusters/lines that can become established. Convection that remains at least semi-discrete will pose a threat for hail. The presence of a seasonably strong (25-35+ kt) southerly low-level jet across much of NY and vicinity will also provide sufficient 0-1 km SRH to support some threat for a couple of tornadoes, both with supercells and line-embedded vorticies. Recent (12Z) high-resolution guidance suggests that a mainly linear mode should dominate. Given the increased potential for scattered to numerous damaging/severe winds this afternoon, parts of central/eastern NY and VT will be upgraded to Enhanced Risk with the 1630Z Day 1 Convective Outlook. ..Gleason/Bunting.. 07/13/2023 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornado_master Posted July 13, 2023 Report Share Posted July 13, 2023 (edited) 13 minutes ago, math423 said: Je me demande si nous ne serons pas plutôt en mode ligne de grains au final que supercellule. Je crois qu'au Nord d'Ottawa s'étirant vers le Nord et Nord-Est de Montréal sera le "spot" pour des cellules discrètes donc potentiellement supercellulaires. Mais dépassé Montréal vers l'Est (Montérégie/Estrie) je crois bien que la dominante deviendra linéaire. Edited July 13, 2023 by tornado_master 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antoine Posted July 16, 2023 Report Share Posted July 16, 2023 Encore du temps potentiellement violent demain, avec une certaine probabilité de tornade.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornado_master Posted July 16, 2023 Report Share Posted July 16, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, Antoine said: Encore du temps potentiellement violent demain, avec une certaine probabilité de tornade.. Pas très courant de voir ça mais même cette nuit/demain matin il y aurait un certain risque d'Ottawa vers Montréal Edited July 16, 2023 by tornado_master Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted July 16, 2023 Report Share Posted July 16, 2023 il y a 53 minutes, tornado_master a dit : Pas très courant de voir ça mais même cette nuit/demain matin il y aurait un certain risque d'Ottawa vers Montréal Effectivement, le NAM 3km 00Z voit des orages assez costauds dans la grande région de Montréal demain matin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornado_master Posted July 16, 2023 Report Share Posted July 16, 2023 (edited) En effet, dans ses plus récentes prévisions du 06z, le NAM entrevois maintenant un petit centre dépressionnnaire sur Montréal vers midi/15h. Le potentiel de rotation est bien présent tout juste au Nord-est de Montréal en fin de matinée/début pm surtout si il y a présence d'éclaircies. Edited July 16, 2023 by tornado_master 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pooram Posted July 16, 2023 Report Share Posted July 16, 2023 (edited) L'Anti-biorage n'a pas d'effet avec ce genre de set-up... Lol Le phénomène est peux être même inversé ! Un bultin spécial est sortie ce matin à E C et il tonne déjà ici Edited July 16, 2023 by Pooram Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.