iceberg

web cam animation of camera 1 LIVE FROM THE NORTH POLE.... here is the link....enjoy http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/np2008/cam1-2008web.mov ps.. look at the wind vane moving and try to predict where the wind storms are coming from...

test

2 eye walls will hit galveston the second eye wall will follow 1 hour later which will give a greater punch to the area.

as you can see 2 eye walls are forming and dry air to the west flank of the hurricane is now being forced out and bands of precip reaching houston now.

Hurricane Ike The latest data i just recieved from my friend dave myers from the hurricane center in miami is that the eye of the storm is closing which is a dangerous sign . It looks like it will be a catagory 3 storm just as it hits land. This storm is not as dangerous as katrina for the wind criteria but the diff is its a larger storm that will affect many people and many people will die if they did not hid the warnings. The main diff with this storm is the wall of water that will incompass the galveston reigion .

Global Temperature Report: August 2008 Global trend since Nov. 16, 1978: +0.13 C per decade August temperatures (preliminar) Global composite temp.: -0.01 C (about 0.02 degrees Fahrenheit) below 20-year average for August. Northern Hemisphere: +0.17 C (about 0.31 degrees Fahrenheit) above 20-year average for August. Southern Hemisphere: -0.19 C (about 0.34 degrees Fahrenheit) below 20-year average for August. July temperatures (revised): Global Composite: +0.05 C above 20-year average Northern Hemisphere: +0.10 C above 20-year average Southern Hemisphere: ±0.00 C at 20-year average (All temperature variations are based on a 20-year average (1979-1998) for the month reported.)

rain rates for tropics central and atlantic

gustav and hanna

latest image on both storms

Alertes/avertissements Arctic Bay 1h06 HAE le jeudi 21 août 2008 un avertissement de neige pour Arctic Bay est maintenu Neige abondante continuant aujourd'hui. Une intense dépression a apporté des vents très forts d'ouest à nord-ouest sur Hall Beach et Igloolik mercredi. On a signalé des vents du nord-ouest de 60 à 80 km/h avec rafales jusqu'à 100 au cours de la journée. Les vents ont commencé à diminuer au cours de la soirée, et soufflent maintenant sous le seuil d'avertissement. Les vents pourraient augmenter quelque peu plus tard ce matin, mais devraient demeurer juste sous le seuil d'avertissement aujourd'hui. À Arctic Bay, on a signalé 7 cm de neige mercredi soir, la majeure partie de cette neige est tombée tout au long de la journée. La neige, le brouillard, les vents forts et la visibilité mauvaise y persisteront aujourd'hui. L'accumulation totale de neige devrait varier de 15 à 25 cm d'ici à ce qu'elle cesse cette nuit.

Latest minimum temperature at Dome A, Tuesday 19 August 2008, 02:59 AM: -79.7°C (-111.5°F)

TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 500 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008 EVEN THOUGH WE CANNOT DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THE CENTER OF FAY IS LOCATED...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SUGGEST IT IS STILL INLAND...OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL HISPANIOLA NEAR THE BORDER BETWEEN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THE AIR FORCE PLANE CIRCUMNAVIGATED THE ENTIRE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...ENDURING SOME RATHER TURBULENT CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST...AND WE APPRECIATE THE HARD WORK OF THE CREW. FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT 40 KT. FAY REMAINS BENEATH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE RESULTING IN WELL-ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW ALOFT...AND DESPITE THE INTERACTION WITH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THE STORM HAS A RELATIVE WELL-ORGANIZED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE CONTINUING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 270/12 TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING...DYNAMICAL MODEL TRACKS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK ARE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ALL OF THE MODELS FORECAST THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. TO GRADUALLY ERODE THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALLOWING FAY TO TURN TO THE RIGHT INTO THE WEAKNESS...EVENTUALLY LEADING TO A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IN 3-5 DAYS. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT THERE ARE RELIABLE MODELS ON BOTH SIDES OF THAT TRACK. THE GFDL AND HWRF TRACKS HEAD UP THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN A FEW DAYS...WHILE THE GFS AND UKMET ARE FARTHER WEST OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE SHORTER TERM...THE MODELS ALSO DO NOT AGREE ON WHETHER THE CENTER OF FAY WILL PASS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA BEFORE TURNING NORTHWESTWARD. THESE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS AGAIN HIGHLIGHT THE PITFALLS OF FOCUSING TOO MUCH ON THE EXACT OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT THE LONGER RANGES. INTENSITY FORECASTING IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT...BUT IN THIS CASE IS MADE EVEN MORE COMPLICATED BY THE LIKELY INTERACTIONS WITH LAND DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEAN CONDITIONS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK APPEAR RATHER CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...SO THE MORE TIME FAY SPENDS OVER WATER...THE STRONGER IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME...AND VICE VERSA. DYNAMICAL MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE WEAK-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AROUND FAY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE FIVE-DAY FORECAST PERIOD...WITH PERHAPS A MODEST BUT TEMPORARY INCREASE IN SHEAR IN ROUGHLY 48 HOURS. WHEN FAY IS OVER WATER...THOSE WATERS WILL BE VERY WARM. SINCE THE OFFICIAL TRACK IMPLIES AMPLE AMOUNT OF TIME OVER WATER...STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...IN A MANNER SIMILAR TO THE GFDL MODEL. FAY COULD BE WEAKER THAN FORECAST IF ITS STAY OVER HISPANIOLA HAS SUBSTANTIALLY DISRUPTED THE CIRCULATION...OR IF IT MOVES FARTHER NORTH AND EAST AND SPENDS MORE TIME OVER CUBA. A TRACK FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...HOWEVER...COULD ALLOW FAY TO GET STRONGER THAN WHAT IS SHOWN BELOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 18.7N 72.0W 40 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 19.0N 74.0W 40 KT 24HR VT 17/0600Z 19.6N 76.4W 50 KT 36HR VT 17/1800Z 20.5N 78.3W 55 KT 48HR VT 18/0600Z 21.8N 79.9W 65 KT...NEAR S COAST OF CUBA 72HR VT 19/0600Z 25.0N 82.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 20/0600Z 28.5N 83.5W 80 KT 120HR VT 21/0600Z 32.0N 84.5W 35 KT...INLAND

WE KNOW THAT THE CENTER OF FAY IS SOMEWHERE OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE IMMEDIATE UNKNOWN IS HOW MUCH OF FAY WILL EMERGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS IN ABOUT 12 HOUR OR SO. BY LOOKING AT THE IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION...OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS AND THE STEADY WESTWARD MOTION...IT IS FAIR TO ASSUME THAT FAY COULD SURVIVE THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA AND MOVE ...ALTHOUGH WEAKER...OVER THE GULF OF GONAVE SATURDAY MORNING. IF SO...A NEW PROCESS OF INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BEGIN SINCE THE SHEAR IS LIGHT AND THE WATERS ARE VERY WARM SOUTH OF CUBA. ONLY THE INTERACTION WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF EASTERN CUBA WOULD IMPEDE STRENGTHENING. IN FACT...MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRENGTHENING WITH THE HWRF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...MAKING FAY A STRONG HURRICANE SOUTH OF CUBA AND EVEN A STRONGER ONE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AFTER CROSSING CUBA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND CALLS FOR A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING BUT SHOWS A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SIMPLY BECAUSE FAY IS EXPECTED TO STAY LONGER OVER WATER IN THIS FORECAST. BECAUSE WE DO NOT KNOW WHERE THE CENTER IS...THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION USING CONTINUITY AND THE MOTION OF THE OVERALL CLOUD MASS IS 275 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BUT IN 2 OR 3 DAYS...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REACH THE GULF OF MEXICO ERODING THE RIDGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE FAY TO TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ONE SHOULD MENTION HERE THAT IN GENERAL...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE. BEFORE I AM COMMITTED TO SHIFT THE TRACK FARTHER WEST...I WOULD RATHER WAIT TO SEE IF GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE STABLE FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT. IN SUMMARY...BOTH OFFICIAL FORECAST AND GUIDANCE SHOW AN INTENSIFYING TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WE MUST PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE. source.. noaa

Latitude: 80 22" 02'S Longitude: 77 32"21'E Height: 4084 m Latest minimum temperature at Dome A, Thursday 14 August 2008, 11:28 PM: -79.1°C (-110.3°F)

C'est moi la Référence !!!! c'est ma prévision You could take it with a grain of salt....

DOME A RECORD CHART....

Latitude: 80 22" 02'S Longitude: 77 32"21'E Height: 4084 m Latest 24-hour-minimum temperature: -78.2°C for DOME A

PAS DE EL NINO CETTE HIVER !!!! Temps will still be in normal mode in the pacific basin by November and below normal by january. Winters of this calibre bring extreme temp swings for southern Quebec. If i would take a guess this winter it would be like the winter of 2002-03 for temps only and for precip normal to above normal towards the end of winter.

Oui cest vrai very good idea i will indeed have a new title LIVE FROM THE POLES... MERCI AND THANKS FOR THE SUGGESTIONS....

GOOD POINT.... ill make one LIVE FROM THE SOUTH POLE !!!! THANKS FOR THE IDEA !!!

Casey station live ......

The windiest day on casey station .

A strong storm system gives kabatic winds on the eastern antartica region, here is what casey station registered the last 24 hours.

PAS DE ELNINO CETTE HIVER !!!! Temps will be in normal mode in the pacific basin by november and below normal by january. Winters of this calibre bring extreme temp swings for southern Quebec. If i would take a guess this winter would be like the winter of 2002-03.

ESTIMATES ARE AT 50 MM FOR MONTREAL EAST AND STILL COMING DOWN....